1. Energy workshop for groups working on Burma: Thai and Burmese energy sector

2. topics Burmese energy sector (compiled by MEE NET)
Structure of Thai power sector
Centralized structure and its problems
Governance issues
Consumption patterns
PDP, load forecast, over-investment
Decentralized generation
Renewable energy (target, VSPP regulations)

3. Infographic about Burma’s Power sector
Burma Power Sector
Infographic about Burma’s Power sector
Links
Decision Making Structure
Actors
Generation mix

4. Decision Making Structure
The electricity system is centralized and under the control and management of the government and state enterprises.
Ministry of Electricity Power 2
Gas-fired Thermal power plant
Transmission & Distribution System
Link to See Structure
Ministry of Electricity Power 1
Hydropower & Coal Fired power plants
Link to See Structure
Dpt. Of Electric Power
Dpt. of Hydropower Planning
Dpt. of Hydropower Implementation
Hydropower Generation Enterprise
Myanmar Electricity Power Enterprise
Generation,Transmission & Distribution System
Electric Supply Enterprise
Yangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB)
Ministry of Electricity Power established in 1997 and in 2006 was restructured and separated into 2 ministries:
Ministry of Electricity power 1 (MOEP-1) takes responsibilities for:
- Planning and Development of new hydropower plants and also operation and maintenance of hydropower stations and coal fired power plants.
- Selling electricity to Ministry of Electricity power 2

5. Decision Making Structure (Con’t)
Ministry of Electricity power 2 (MOEP-2) in charge of transmission and distribution of electricity generated by Ministry of Electricity power 1
Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) is a State own enterprise established in It is an implementing agency responsible for power generation, transmission and distribution throughout the country.
- Thermal power plants: Operation and maintenance of Gas Turbine Power Stations and Combined Cycle Power Plants
- Construction of Transmission, Distribution and substation
Yangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB) was formed in 2005 and is tasked with approving businesses to supply electricity in areas that cannot be fully supplied.
Other ministries and authorities involved with the energy is as follows:
Ministry of Energy and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) in charge of Oil and Gas management
Ministry of Mines in charge of Coal business
Ministry of Forestry is responsible for Biomass and Fuel Wood
Ministry of Science and Technology is responsible for Renewable Energy

6. Actors in the Power Sector
MOPE-1
Hydropower, Coal
MEPE
Gas Turbine, CCPP
IPPs
Small privates
Generation
Transmission
MEPE & MOEP-2
MEPE
Small Privates
Distribution
Export to
India, China
Domestic Customer
Transmission system is under the control of the MEPE and MOEP-2. They will finance, construct and operate the transmission system. MEPE distributes electricity through the national grid to 5 states and 6 divisions. IPPs cannot own transmission lines. However, about private participation, private sector has been allowed to cooperate with MOEP-1, MOEP-2 and MEPE in generation, distribution, sale and service. IPPs can jointly invest with the ministries. Small generator enterprises can supply power to consumers.

8. Generation Mix
Hydropower is the main fuel source in the country. In 2008, electricity generated from hydroelectricity was 60.83% of total generation. Gas and steam power are the second ranked fuel used.
Currently, there are the following power projects:
-14 Hydropower stations
-10 gas turbine and thermal power plants
-1 Coal fired power station

9. Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Installed Capacity
976
1008.5
1038.5
1546.9
1571.9
1719.9
Peak Demand
721.1
692.5
701.2
708.3
864
966.4
995.7
1005
1061.2
Per capita electricity consumption
75.43
68.68
78.06
85.53
86.35
81.00
92.19
94.00
92.80
Source : Myanmar Ministry of Electricity
World Bank, World Development Indicators
From the figures, it is clear that there is a gap between installed capacity and highest demand for electricity. This can be due to a number of factors including the low efficiency of power plants in generating power. Another possible reason is that power generated is also exported to neighboring countries (peak demand in the graph is only an indicator for domestic demand).

11. Trans-Burma dual pipelines construction begin soon

12. Dynamics of Electricity Sector
After Burma attained independence in 1948, the government established the Electricity Supply Board in 1951 and thus began the government’s monopoly on utilities (before that, some local business were able to generate electricity).
In 1972, Electricity Supply Board was reorganized to become the ‘Electricity Power Corporation (EPC). The Ministry of Energy was also formed in 1985 as was responsible for the oil and gas sectors as well as for electricity generation and distribution.
Ultimately, on the 15th of November 1997, under the State Law and Order Restoration Council, the Ministry of Electricity Power was established. The Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) was also formed at this time.
MEPE continues to serve as the State utility company while the the Ministry restructured into to two ministries, the Ministry of Electricity Power (1) and (2). See Burma Power Sector
Steps towards Privatization
In late November 2005, to meet increasing demands from new satellite towns and industrial zones, the government started to allow private agencies to supply electricity. Under the Yangon City Electricity Supply Board Law, small businesses in Yangon can generate and sell power to consumers. However, once implemented the government encountered protests from consumers who faced high costs from small generators fueled by an expensive commodity, oil. In addition, generators and other suppliers also faced higher costs once they had to conform to standards set by the government.
Though the government has allowed for private investments, the main generation plants and the entire transmission system are still under the control of Burma’s government.

13. Burma Power Policy
Burma’s economic development strategies, especially in its energy sector are driven by centralized government decision-making. The Burmese domestic energy market is influenced both by regional and international investment flows from major regional states looking for energy resources.
Burma’s natural resource rich country including an abundance of gas and oil reserves and high hydropower potential are being exploited. Investors from the region including Thailand, China, South Asian Countries, South Korean, and the GMS countries are all involved in extractive industries within the country. In addition to reaping high profits from these trade opportunities, the government is also using the investment ventures as useful tools in its battle with minority ethnic groups who currently occupy large swathes of resource rich lands. In the name of development, the government has been expelling the groups from construction sites and economic development zones.
Though the Burmese government claims that energy sector development is vital for meeting the population’s basic needs and overall development strategy, Burma’s electrification rate is very low, even after years of resource exploitation. In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s million population lived without electricity. Or, according to UN statistics, only 5% of all Burmese citizens have access to electricity even though the government’s stated goal is to increase electrification rates to 60% by 2020.
During , Burma’s energy sector plans to continue oil and gas pipeline construction, oil and gas extraction plans, hydroelectric power development, and transmission line construction both for domestic use and for regional interconnection plans.
Links
Power Planning Subpage
Dynamics of Electricity Sector Subpage

14. Burma Power Planning
In order to achieve its economic and social development plans of 12% annual GDP Growth, Burma’s Fourth Short-Term Five-Year Plan (2006/ /2011) was formulated to meet this stated target. One of power-related objectives in the five year plan is ‘To develop electric power and energy sector to be in conformity with developing trend industries’.
In addition, specific Long-term Policy for the Energy Sector is as follows:
Sustainable use of natural resources to support the economic growth in a sustainable manner;
Efficient utilization of available energy resources;
Smooth and reliable energy supplies for building a modem agro industrial based nation;
A well balanced use of energy resources by the creation of an equal distribution of the share of various primary energy sources for conservation;
Promoting the development and utilization of all available renewable energy resources;
Creating an attractive base for further investment in energy and energy related ventures.
Regional policy and cooperation in infrastructure development in order to support investment and trade in the region results in the
Government’s plans for near term cross-country cooperation activities as follows:
Linked infrastructure including hydropower power plants, power lines, pipelines and supporting road networks
Shared infrastructure including road s, channels for navigations, bridges and etc.
Shared link or independent infrastructure for import and export of oil, gas petrochemicals and other related products
Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE), a state-owned enterprise, has been distributing electricity generated by major hydropower and gas turbine stations. The national grid supplies 94 % of the nation’s power needs while another 6% comes from off-grid isolated energy sources. MEPE’s objectives for the country’s development is as follows:
Developing Hydropower for base load and gas turbine for peak load
In order to optimize the use of natural gas by gas turbine, combined cycle power plants are implemented
To expand the national grid
To revive the study of alternative production of electricity by using waste products including rice husks, etc. Using electricity by firing boilers to generate electricity meeting local requirements instead of utilizing the main grid’s power is encouraged
To reduce loss of electricity incurred from transmission and distribution
In remote areas where electricity from hydropower through the national grid cannot be utilized, the generation and distribution of electricity will be performed by diesel generating sets, wind and solar facilitates

15. Burma Power Planning (Con’t)
Power Development Plans and Transmission Interconnection Projects
According to its power demand forecast,
in 2030, Burma will have a peak demand of
7, MW (peak demand in 2008 was
1,061.2 MW).
During , several projects will be
Developed. At present, 19 hydroelectric power
projects are under construction. Furthermore,
18 cross border hydropower power projects
are currently being planned through investments by companies and/or state
owned enterprises from China, Thailand and India. If these projects are completed, their total installed capacity will rise to 19,413 MW. Meanwhile, in 2009 Burma current installed capacity is only 2,255.9 MW.
Transmission system
To facilitate power transmission, during , the government plans to construct 62 transmission lines throughout Burma in the near future (at present, transmission lines are in operation )

16. Infographic about Thailand’s Power sector
Thailand Power Sector
Infographic about Thailand’s Power sector
Links
Decision Making Structure
Actors
Generation mix

17. Decision Making Structure
Thailand has Centralized Electricity Structure. Policy determination and planning including system
operation are in hands of the government and the state owned enterprise; the Ministry of Energy and the Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand (EGAT).
EPPO and EGAT are responsible for electricity supply planning.
DEDE is mainly responsible for alternative energy development
ERC was established in 2009, as an independent authority, to regulate and ensure efficiency and transparency of electricity management, review final draft PDP, license to power producers
Cabinet
National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC)
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)
Ministry of Energy
EGAT
Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO)
PTT Public Co., Ltd. (State Enterprise)
Dpt. of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)
Bangchak Petroleum Pub Co., Ltd. (State Enterprise)
Dpt. of Energy Business
Energy Fund Administration Institute (EFAI) (Public Organization)
Dpt. of Mineral Fuels

18. Actors in Power Sector Generation Power Purchaser, System Operation,
SPPs
IPPs
EGAT Power Plants R E G U L A T O
Power Purchaser,
System Operation,
and Transmission
Power Purchase
System Operation
Transmission
Bulk Power Supply
EGAT
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)
Distribution/
Retail Supply
PEA
MEA
End Users
End Users
VSPP
Direct
Customers
Under Thailand ‘Enhanced Single Buyer Structure’, all producers have to sell electricity to EGAT that holds a monopoly over the transmission system. EGAT then sells power to MEA and PEA for distribution to consumers. Only a small amount of consumers directly purchase electricity rom EGAT/ IPPs/ SPPs, most of them are industries. In addition, ERC serves as a regulator in the system.

19. Generation Mix
Thailand uses natural gas as its major fuel to generate electricity, 72.5% in Lignite and coal are used 11% and 8.4% respectively.
Installed generating capacity from April until August in 2010 reached 30, MW. In 2009, the installed capacity was 29, MW. Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type January to October 2010 The accumulated power generation from January to October is 134, GWh. At the end of 2008, the generation reached 148, Meanwhile, in 2009, the total generation was 145, GWh which represents a decrease between 2008 and 2009 of 2.04%. Peak Demand of 2010 happened in May, at 24,009.9 MW whereas in 2008 and 2009 peak demands were 22,045 MW and 22,568.9 MW respectively.

20. Thailand Power Policy
Overview Thailand’s power policy is driven by two key factors: continued economic growth driven by the industrial sector and energy sector financiers as well as ambitious plans to be the energy leader in the region. Thailand’s stated goal of being the “Hub of the ASEAN Grid” is at the core of its energy investments. Thailand’s centralized power planning structure emphasizes increasing energy supplies to meet expected demands. These needs can only be met through continued investments in large scale power projects both domestically as well as in neighboring countries. Power planning also includes expectations that the regional transmission network will be realized allowing for both exports and imports of electricity with neighboring countries. International concern about climate change is also playing a role in Thailand’s power development plans. By pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector by 30% by 2020, Thailand is planning on increased investments in nuclear power projects, hydropower projects and the promotion of Clean Development Mechanism projects. Meanwhile, renewable energy development, Energy Efficiency and Demand-side management (DSM) are not adequately being promoted by the government. Links Power Planning History of Electricity Reform

21. Power Planning Sub page
The centralized government planning process and the National Economic and Social Development Plan in addition to regional development and power development plans are crucial in Thailand’s power sector planning.
The National Economic and Social Development Plan such as Southern and Eastern Seaboard Development Projects, which are focused on heavy industries utilize large amounts of energy consumption and require infrastructure development that includes huge power plants. been
Moreover, current ‘Framework of Thailand’s Power Strategies’ have also been devised by the government, Ministry of Energy and
state-owned enterprise Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to include the following:
Maintaining energy stability and security: supplying sufficient energy to meet demand, promoting public participation especially in national power planning process, preparing readiness for gas supplied emergency
Regulating energy businesses
Strengthening energy utilities and authorities
Promoting generation and supply of alternative energy
Reducing energy use and lower greenhouse gas emission
Power Development Plan (PDP)
Thus far, Thailand electricity sector propelled by
PDP 2010 ( ) ลิ้งค์ไปที่ PDP 2010,
the latest 20 year PDP approved in early
2010. It has been formulated according to
the Ministry of Energy’s framework with specific
investment and projects as illustrated
In the figure on Installed Capacity classified by
Fuel Type for Combined-cycle gas
power plants are main source, followed by
power purchase from Laos and coal fired power plants.
Importantly, the Ministry of Energy is adamant to
construct nuclear power plants
Even while opposition exists from local people living
around the proposed sites. Renewable energy will
be account for 7-8% of the generation during the ext 20 years. throughout 20 years.
According to the plan, Thailand’s installed capacity will reach 65,547 MW whereas present installed capacity is 30, MW
PDP 2010 : GDP (Base Case)
Diesel
Renewable Energy
Heavy Fuel Oil
Import
Natural Gas
Imported Coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Hydro

22. Power Planning Sub page (Con’t)
Arguments made during PDP 2010:
Thailand’s civil society criticized the 2010 PDP approval process due to lack of transparency and genuine public participation. The national plan was approved by National Energy Policy Council during the chaotic political situation that occurred in April in Thailand.
It is the first PDP covering a 20 year period (Previous plans last 5 years and 15 years). Therefore, long-term demand forecast and investment planning will be less accurate and err from the reality.
Notably, even though Thailand’s PDP noted an aspiration to harmonize its renewable energy component with its Link to 15-year Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP), for , developed by Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency under Ministry of Energy, this is not reflected in the official PDP. According to the AEDP, generation capacity from AEDP is to reach 5,608 MW, however the official PDP only includes plans to increase generation capacity from renewable energy sources to 4,049.5 MW
Unenthusiastic promotion on renewable energy such as decreasing adders (money support per unit) for solar power and excuse that limitations on the transmission system to support electricity from any renewable energy sources for the national grid
EGAT has tried to preserve major shares in the generation market by determining that EGAT’s proportion in new power plants must be at least 50%
Process of PDP development and approval:
EGAT draft and propose to Ministry of Energy and Energy Regulatory Commission to review
Approval process by National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) comprised of Ministers, representatives from the National Economic and Social Development Board while the Prime Minister serves as Chairman.
PDP will be proposed to the Cabinet as a final step
In addition to PDP and AEDP, the government had just conducted a preliminary study of a 20 year energy-
saving plan, which aims to review potential of all sectors in reducing energy demand by 25 % by 2030.
LINKS
Articles

23. History of Electricity Reform Subpage
Thailand’s initial centralized economic and social planning saw electricity projects as basic investments providing Thai citizen’s with basic infrastructure to improve their livelihoods and to to drive economic growth. Mega projects including generation stations, hydropower, coal fired power projects and transmission system were constructed gradually. State Control The government decided that the most efficient model for managing the power sector was to establish its own state owned enterprise. This led in 1968, to the consolidation of regional state owned generating companies into a central national electricity termed the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The distribution networks, Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) were respectively set up in 1958 and MEA became responsible for power distribution in Bangkok and neighboring provinces while PEA was responsible for power distribution in the remaining provinces. By the end of the 1960s, the power system was centralized under EGAT and the two distribution companies. Privates allowed to generation In 1992, Independent Private Power Producers (IPPs) were allowed into the system through long term concessions operative power plants in accordance with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with EGAT. EGAT continued to hold sole control over the transmission system operation. At the same time, the Thai government also launched a Small Power Producers (SPPs) program to promote the use of clean efficient energy or the use of renewable energy sources for domestic use. However, the plan was also criticized for the overwhelming preference for large industrial producers (who received SPP licenses) over smaller power producers including rural cooperatives, municipalities, hospitals. The first step of privatization was completed with the relaxation of power tariffs. At that time the National Energy Policy Office (under the Ministry of Energy today) believed that marketizing the power tariff would lead to lower tariffs over time. However, the marketization of power tariffs led to a rapid increase due to rising oil and gas prices at the same time.

24. History of Electricity Reform Subpage (Con’t)
‘Privatization without Extensive Liberalization’
In 2000, the second step of privatization involving the introduction of the power pool model along with the unbundling of the generation, transmission and distribution systems was introduced. These were in preparation for complete market competition in the power market by However, with such attempt, it was However, the attempt at privatization was not a success. Many arguments were raised by parties including academics and consumers that it was too risky to allow for a market mechanism to control prices, regulatory body, etc. Two other options were proposed introduced, EGAT proposed a Third Party Access Model which allows consumers to independently choose suppliers while Academics proposed Single Buyer Model which allows for public ownership of distribution and even transmission.
Later, EGAT proposed a different model moving from ‘private sector participation competition to achieve efficiency’ to one that allows for ‘national efficiency and competitiveness and secure regional leadership” and ‘To build strong national champions in the energy sector’. Within this model, EGAT would need remain a large major player in order to compete against multinational energy companies in the region.
‘National Champion’ and Enhanced Single Buyer (ESB) in the present model
Under this proposed model EGAT can be the National Champion and maintain its monopoly position. This model
is different from a single buyer in which private entities have to compete with EGAT in generation but EGAT retains a
monopoly on the transmission system and a majority of generation.
EGAT had plans to reform itself into a private company, listing itself on the stock market to raise capital and expand in
the region. However, this plan finally failed in 2006.
LINKS
Articles

25. Structure and Overview of Thai Power Sector

26. ... Steps involved to deliver electricity to end-users
Fuel procurement
Power
Generation
Retail, Meter
Reading,
Billing &
settlement
Transmission
Distribution

27. Structure of Thai power sector
Generation
(% share)
SPPs
(7%)
EGAT
(50%)
IPPs
(41%)
Import
(2%)
VSPPs
(<<1%)
Govt.
ERC
EGAT (100%) SO
Transmission
Distribution
PEA
(67%)
MEA
(31%)
Direct Customers
(2%)
Users
Users
Remarks: - Figure of % Share in 2008
- ERC = Energy Regulatory Commission
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

28. Generation by fuel type
Power generation (May 2009)
Generation by fuel type
Generation by sources
Oil, 0.1%
Natural Gas,
70%
Hydro, 6%
Coal & Lignite, 21%
Import & Others, 3%
IPP 12,151 MW (43%)
EGAT, 13,615 MW (48%)
SPP 2,073 MW (7%)
Import & Exchange 640 MW (2%)
Total: 28,482 MW
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

29. Power Supply Management
Review the Power Development Plan (PDP) every 6 months to be in line with the changing demand situation
Maintain the reserve margin to be no less than 15%
Diversify fuel types in power generation:
Give importance to SPPs and VSPPs using renewable energy as fuel
Study the feasibility of nuclear power generation.
Promote Clean Coal Technology for coal-fired power generation
International cooperation in power development projects:
Power purchase from LPDR, Myanmar, China, Cambodia and Malaysia
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

30. Overview of Electricity Generating Capacity PDP 2007 (Revision 2: @ Mar09)
Installed capacity as at Dec ,140 MW
Total increased capacity ( ) 30,155 MW
,605 MW
,550 MW
Decommissioned plants -7,502 MW
Total generating capacity up to ,792 MW
Comparison of New Generating Capacity by Source of Supply (in MW)
Year
PDP 2007
Revision 1
PDP 2007 Revision 2
EGAT
IPP
SPP
Purchase from Abroad
VSPP
New Projects
4,615
4,400
1,193
5,473
3,769
1,985
264
2,187 -
8,900
1,400
575
8,690
8,000
1,600
300
2,850
4,800
Total Increased Capacity
13,515
5,800
1,768
14,163
11,769
6,000
564
5,037
35,246
30,155
Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1)
- 5,091
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

31. IPPs: 1st IPP Solicitation in 1994 7 Selected IPPs with PPA Signed
IPP Plant
Location
Fuel
Gen. Capacity
(MW)
COD
IPT
Aow Pay, Chonburi
Natural Gas
700
15 Aug 2000
TECO
Ratchaburi
1 Jul 2000
Ratchburi Power
1,400
Unit 1: 1 Mar 2008
Unit 2: 1 Jun 2008
Gulf Power
Khaeng Koi, Saraburi
1,468
Unit 1: 1 Mar 2007
Unit 2: 1 Mar 2008
BLCP
Pluakdaeng,
Rayong
Coal
1,346.5
Unit 1: 13 Aug 2006
Unit 2: 14 Nov 2006
Glow IPP
Bowin, Chonburi
713
31 Jan 2003
EPEC
Klong Mai, Samut Prakarn
350
25 Mar 2003
Total
6,677.5
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

32. IPPs: 2nd IPP Solicitation in 2007 4 Selected IPPs with PPA Signed
IPP Plant
Project’s Shareholder
Fuel Type
Capacity (MW)
Location
SCOD
GHECO-One
GLOW IPP2: 65%
Hemaraj: 35%
Coal
660
Rayong
Nov 2011
National Power Supply (NPS)
NPS: 99.99%
6 Thai Individuals: 0.01%
540
Chachoengsao
Nov 2012/
Mar 2013
Siam Energy
Gulf JP: 99.94%
6 Thai Individuals: 0.06%
Gas
1,600
Mar 2012/
Sep 2012
Power Generation Supply
Individual Investors: 0.06%
Saraburi
Jun 2014/ Dec 2014
Total
4,400
Remarks:
7 Dec 07: NEPC approved the next IPP Solicitation for power procurement during
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

33. Promotion of SPP/VSPP Power Generation
Small Power Producer (SPP)/ Very Small Power Producer (VSPP):
A generator of a private entity, state agency, state-owned enterprise, using cogeneration system or renewable energy, agricultural waste or residues, residues from agricultural or industrial production processes to produce electricity.
SPP  Sale of electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), is >10 MW up to 90 MW.
Firm contract: years
Non-firm contract: 5 years and renewed automatically
VSPP  Sale of electricity to the Distribution Utility, i.e. Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), is no more than 10 MW.
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

34. Fuel Diversification in Power Generation
Oil, 0.1%
Natural Gas,
70%
Hydro, 6%
Coal & Lignite, 21%
Import & Others, 3%
Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type May 2009)
Currently, Thailand’s power generation depends heavily on natural gas as fuel. - Efforts are being made to boost greater use of renewable energy as fuel.
Status of Power Generation from Renewable Energy and Potential & Target in 2011
Existing MW
Target MW
Potential MW
Biomass
Existing 1,610 MW
Target ,800 MW
Potential 4,400 MW
Wind
Existing MW
Target MW
Potential 1, MW
Hydro
- Sugarcane industry, etc.
- Biomass power plants
- Community power plants
Wind farm in southern
Thailand
Mini Hydro and Micro Hydro
Existing MW
Target MW
Potential MW
Existing MW
Target MW
Potential 50,000 MW
Existing MW
Target MW
Potential MW
Biogas
Solar PV
MSW
- Urban areas
Solar homes
His Majesty’s projects
0.1% of installation areas
Biogas from livestock farms and agro, palm industry
- Bangkok 9,000 tons/day
- Municipality 6,300 tons/day
- Industry 1,000 tons/day
(Data as at Jan2009)
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

35. Power Purchase from Neighboring Countries
Thailand has cooperated in hydropower development with neighboring countries, on a bilateral basis.
MOUs on power purchase have been signed with Laos, China and Myanmar, with a total power purchase of 11,500 MW.
MOUs on Power Purchase Signed
Country
Signing Date
Purchase Cap.
(MW)
Within Year
LPDR
22 Dec 2007
7,000
2015
Myanmar
14 Jul 1997
1,500
2010
PR China
12 Nov 1998
3,000
2017
Imported power being supplied to Thailand’s Grid:
LPDR 313 MW
Malaysia 300 MW [High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC)]
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

36. Power Purchase from LPDR
Project
Sale to Thailand (MW)
COD
1) Currently supplying power to Thailand
1.1 Nam Theun-Hinboun
187
31 Mar 1998
1.2 Houay Hoa
126
3 Sep 1999
Sub-total
313
2) PPA signed but not yet supplied power to Thailand
2.1 Nam Theun 2
920
Dec 2009
2.2 Nam Ngum 2
615
Mar 2011
2.3 Theun-Hinboun Expansion
220
Mar 2012
1,755
3) Tariff MOU signed
3.1 Hongsa Lignite
1,473
2013
GRAND TOTAL
3,541
Status as at Jun09.
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

37. Power Purchase from Myanmar
14 Jul 1997: MOU on Power Purchase from Myanmar (~1,500 MW by 2010).
30 Nov 2005: MOU on Cooperation in the Development of Power Projects on Thanlwin and Tanintharyi Rivers.
Initially, Myanmar has proposed 2 power projects on Thanlwin River:
(1) Hutgyi hydropower project, 1,200 MW
(2) Tasang hydropower project, 7,000 MW
Also, Tariff MOU signed for Mai Khot coal-fired power project (369MW)
Tasang
7,000 MW
(Other potential projects: Upper/Lower Thanlwin ,
4, MW)
Hutgyi
1,200 MW
(Tanintharyi
600 MW)
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

38. Power Purchase from Cambodia
Feasibility study is being conducted on 2 potential projects:
Strung Nam Hydropower Project MW
Koh Kong Coal-fired Power Project 3,660 MW
Power Purchase from Malaysia
Thailand (EGAT) and Malaysia (TNB) have had power trade between each other since 1980, starting with 80 MW.
Current trade: 300 MW via HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) system.
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

39. NPIEP Milestones for Nuclear Power Program Implementation
(17 November 2007)
NPIEP Milestones for Nuclear Power Program Implementation
NPI: Nuclear Power Infrastructure
NPIEP: NPI Establishment Plan
NPPDO: Nuclear Power Program Development Office
NPP: Nuclear Power Plant
NRB: Nuclear Regulatory Body
1st Milestone
2nd Milestone
3rd Milestone   
MS 0.1
MS 0.2
MS 1: Policy Decision
MS 2 : Call for Bids
MS 3: Start Operation 
Nuclear power option included in PDP2007
To prepare for policy decision
Knowledgeable Commitment
Financial Commitments
Commissioning 1st NPP
GO NUCLEAR   
Phase 0.1: Preliminary Phase
NPIPC & 7 Sub-committees appointed
Issues & Milestones considered
NPIEP prepared
Phase 1: Pre-project Activity Phase
- approve NPIEP
- set up NPPDO
- infrastructure work started
- survey of potential sites
- feasibility study completed
- public information & participation
Phase 2: Program Implementation Phase
- implement NPIEP with Milestones
- full NRB established
- legislation & international protocols enacted
- suitable sites for bid selected
- technology/qualified suppliers selected
- prepare to call bids
Phase 3: Construction Phase
- NPIEP fully implemented
- bidding process completed
- design & engineering
- manufacturing
- construction & installation
- test runs & inspection
NPP commissioning license
Phase 4: Operation Phase
- commercial operation
- O&M
- planning for expansion
industrial and technology development plan
1 year
3 years
3 years
6 years
2007
2008
2011
2014
2020
ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009

40. Centralized structure

41. Centralized structure of electricity
Conflicts are a result of centralized structure of control
Loss of livelihood/health/forests for local people for the benefits of others, mainly urban commercial and industrial interests
Centralized grid: in many cases, makes economic and technical sense, however…
Control of a central grid need not be monopolized by one group
Structure of control determined by Cold War politics, not technical superiority

42. Problems with centralized control (1)
Separation of consumption and production leads to inefficient consumption
“Out of sight, out of mind”
Ratio of Power demand growth to GDP growth = 1.4
Perverse incentives to exclude customer-owned generation
The more to invest, the more to profit.
Small-scale, renewable generators lack access
Energy conservation measures are viewed as a threat to EGAT’s profits.

43. Centralized & decentralized generation
Cogeneration
Gasifier

44. Centralized & decentralized generation
Cogeneration
Gasifier

45. Choice of supply options considered in the PDP by EGAT
700 MW Coal-fired power plant
700 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant
230 MW gas-fired open cycle plant
1,000 MW nuclear plant
Hydro imports are politically negotiated outside of PDP process
DSM/EE, RE, Distributed generation not considered as supply options

46. Centralized energy is also more costly
Thailand
PDP 2007 requires 2 trillion baht to implement, comprising:
million B
generation 1,482,000
transmission ,000
Transmission adds 40% to generation costs
Decentralized generation brings down costs
Ireland – retail costs for new capacity to 2021
Source: World Alliance for Decentralized Energy, April 2005

47. Centralized generation wastes a lot of energy
(~70% of heat value is lost & adds to climate change problem)
Combined cycle
13,540 MW
47.5 %
Hydro
3,424.2 MW
12.0 %
Thermal
9,666.6 MW
33.9 %
Gas turbines, diesel
971.4 MW
3.4 %
Hydro import
1.2 %
Renewables
288.1 MW
1.0 %
Import from Malaysia
Total at end of ,530.3 MW
Installed capacity by types of generation in 2007
Loss in conversion process
61%
Station use (in power plants) 1%
Loss in transmission 3%
Loss in distribution
5-8%
Useful electricity to end-users
<30%

48. Problems with centralized control (2)
Lack of accountability, transparency, participation in centralized planning processes
Political decisions masked in technical language
“Big is beautiful”, fossil fuels dominate
Social and environmental concerns are ignored
“Cost plus” incentive structure
passes risks to consumers
“Overcapacity worth 400 billion Baht” (from total assets of 700 billion Baht and annual turnover of 240 billion Baht)
– Prime Minister Thaksin Shinwatra

49. Governance issues

50. Energy policy and its impacts on share prices of energy companies in the stock market
The coup-installed government announced its policy on energy investment opportunities on 3 Oct 2006
Energy policy, PDP approval and IPP bidding resulted in significant windfall benefits for selected companies
1 year later, the share prices of companies benefiting from the PDP jumped 66% (other companies had a 8.7% rise)

51. Change in energy companie’s share prices within 1 yr

52. Conflict of interest : policy v business
Board of directors
Permanent secretary of ministry of energy
Chairman of PTT
Chairman of EGAT
Board member of PTT chemical
Chairman of Rayong refinery
Director general,Energy fuel
Dep. permanent secretary
Board member of Thai oil
Dep. permanent secretary
Board member of RATCH
Dep. permanent secretary
Board member of PTTEP
Director general of energy business
Board member of PTT
Director general of Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency energy
Board member of RATCH
Director of Energy Policy and Planning official
Board member of PTTEP
Senior official of ministry of energy
Board member of Aromatics PLC
Senior official of ministry of energy
Board member of Bang chak
Board member of RATCH
Board member of Ratchaburi generation company
Senior official of ministry of energy 52

53. Performance of high-level energy officials in serving the government vs. PTT Plc. (Thai gas/oil utility, the largest list company in Thailand)
Attendance of PTT board meetings*
Attendance of Automatic tariff (Ft) mechanism mtgs**
Permanent secretary
13/13
4/6
Director of EPPO
8/9
5/6
100%
67%
90%
83%
*จากรายงานประจำปีบมจ. ปตท. ปี 2546
**ตั้งแต่มีการปรับองค์ประกอบคณะอนุกรรมการ Ft โดยแต่งตั้งให้นายเชิดพงษ์เป็นประธาน และนายเมตตาเป็นรองประธาน (ปลายปี 46)
Government officials serve energy companies better than the Thai public? 53

54. Structure reform of power sector proposed by Thai civil society
กฟผ. (โรงไฟฟ้าพลังความร้อน)
~ 15,000 MW
ไฟฟ้าพลังงานหมุนเวียน /ชุมชนท้องถิ่น /รายย่อย/ cogen
สัญญาซื้อขายไฟฟ้า
(IPP/Egco/Ratch/SPP)
~ 10,000 MW
โรงไฟฟ้าใหม่
การไฟฟ้าฝ่ายระบบส่ง
ระบบส่ง
ศูนย์ควบคุมระบบ
เขื่อน
การไฟฟ้าฝ่ายจำหน่าย (กฟน./กฟภ.)
จัดหา/ค้าปลีกไฟฟ้า *
ระบบจำหน่าย
ความต้องการที่เพิ่มขึ้น (บ้าน/รายเล็ก/อื่นๆ )
ความต้องการที่เพิ่มขึ้น (รายใหญ่)
* ในกรณีชุมชน/องค์กรท้องถิ่น มีความพร้อมและความสนใจ ให้สามารถใช้สิทธิในการจัดการและจัดหาไฟฟ้าได้เอง
โดย กฟน./กฟภ. ทำหน้าที่เป็นเพียงผู้ให้บริการระบบสายจำหน่าย แต่ไม่ผูกขาดสิทธิในการจัดหา
ความต้องการใช้ไฟฟ้าในปัจจุบัน
~ 19,000 MW
รัฐ
รัฐ/เอกชน
องค์ กร กำ
กับ ดู แล
อิสระ

55. Consumption patterns

56. Electrical consumption by sector in 2007
Others 5%
Residential 21%
Industrial 49%
Commercial
25%
การใช้พลังงานไฟฟ้าแยกตามประเภทผู้ใช้
133,132 GWh
ที่มา กฟผ.

57. การกระจายตัวของการใช้ไฟฟ้าแยกตามพื้นที่ Distribution of electricity consumption by region
South
North
Northeast
Central
Source: Figure 19, Statistical Report Fiscal Year 2003 Power Forecast and Statistics Analysis Department System Control and Operation Division. Report No. SOD-FSSR

58. Comparison of electricity consumption of three big malls vs
Comparison of electricity consumption of three big malls vs. 16 provinces
Siam Paragon
GWh
123
MBK 81
278
GWh
Central World 75
ที่มา: การไฟฟ้านครหลวง 2549
ที่มา: พพ. รายงานการใช้ไฟฟ้า ปี 2549

59. Siam Paragon MBK Pak Mun Central World 65 Dams Malls Province
Electricity production
and consumption
(GWh)
MBK
123 81 75
Siam Paragon
Central World
Impacts of Pak Mun Dam alone
1700 families
relocated
Loss of livelihood
for >6200 families
Loss of 116
fish species (44%)
Fishery yield
down 80%
Source: MEA, EGAT, Searin, Graphic: Green World Foundation
Pak Mun 65
Mae
Hong
Song
Dams Malls Province 59

60. การกระจายของจำนวนผู้ใช้ไฟและปริมาณการใช้ไฟฟ้า Distribution of number of power users & energy consumed
Agricultural pumping
Government
Specific businesses
Large industrial/commercial)
Small industrial/commercial
Small industrial/commercial
Large houses (>150 kWh/mo)
Small houses (<150 kWh/mo)
Number of customers
Electricity consumption
ที่มา : รายงานการปรับโครงสร้างอัตราค่าไฟฟ้า (มติ ค.ร.ม. วันที่ 3 ตุลาคม 2543)

61. "Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed."
- Gandhi
"Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed." -- Ghandi 61 61

62. Hourly Power Demand (2002)
> 1,000 MW in 66 hours

63. Source: EPPO, 2007.

64. พลังไฟฟ้า (เมกะวัตต์)
Load profile on the day of annual highest consumption Notice the rise of air-conditioning load
2551
2550
2549
พลังไฟฟ้า (เมกะวัตต์)
2548
2534
2533
2532
เวลา (ชั่วโมง)

65. PDP, demand forecast over-investment

66. Power demand projection Sep 2007 (PDP 2007 revision 1)MW
Economic Development Plan (years)
Average GDP growth rate/year
Average demand growth rate/year
10th plan ( )
5.0
5.86
11th plan ( )
5.6
5.95
12th plan ( )
5.54
48,958 MW
2,477
2,399
2,287
37,382 MW
2,235
2,178
2,131
2,035
27,996 MW
1,832
Demand increase per year
1,759
1,629
1,361
1,410
1,268
1,444
1,449
2550 – average increase 1,386 MW
2555 – average increase 1,877 MW
2560 – average increase 2,315 MW
แผนพัฒนาฯ ฉบับที่ 10
แผนพัฒนาฯ ฉบับที่ 11
แผนพัฒนาฯ ฉบับที่ 12
ที่มา กฟผ.

67. Planning of capacity additions
(Total capacity requirement = peak demand + 15% reserve margin)

68. Power Demand: Projections vs
Power Demand: Projections vs. Actual 1992 – 2008 If no systemic bias, the chance of over-projecting demand 12 times in a row should be 1/4096!! MW

69. Incentive structure for utilities: the more expansion, the more profits
Financial criteria for utilities link profits to investments
Thailand uses outdated return-based regulation
WB’s promoted financial criteria such as self financing ratio (SFR) also have similar effects
ROIC (Return on Invested Capital means: the more you invest, the more profits
ROIC = Net profit after tax
Invested capital
EGAT 8.4%
MEA
PEA
4.8%
Result :
Demand forecast have systemic bias toward over-projections
Too many expensive power projects get built

70. Cycle of over-expansion under the centralized monopoly system
Deterministic planning based
on demand forecast leads
to over-investment
in capital-intensive
power projects
Power demand
(over-)projections 1 2
Utilities’
Profits 3
Tariff structure that allows pass-through
of unnecessary investments

71. Comparison of trend lines with historical peak consumption
Exponential
Linear
Past demand trajectory was linear but how come the official demand projections have always assumed exponential trend and over-estimated?

72. The government forecast was based on the assumption of exponential growth
21 power plants

74. ที่มา:แผนพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทน 15 ปีพ.ศ.2551 -2565

76. Cost estimate (Baht/kWh)
Supply options
Cost estimate (Baht/kWh)
Generation
Transmission1
Distribution2
CO2 3
Other envi impacts 4
Social impacts
Total
DSM
0.50 – 1.505 -
SPP
cogeneration
(PES > 10%)
2.60 6
0.44
0.08
0.71
3.83
VSPP
(Renewable)
Bulk supply tariff
(~ 2.62) +
Adder
(0.3 – 8)
0 – 0.63
0 – low
2.92 – 10.62
gas CC
2.25 7
0.37
0.09
0.79
low – medium
3.93
Coal
2.11 7
0.15
2.76
High
5.82
Nuclear
2.087–7.308
High – very high
หมายเหตุ ใช้สมมติฐานว่าต้นทุนร้อยละ 12.4 ของค่าไฟฟ้ามาจากธุรกิจสายส่ง
2. ใช้สมมติฐานว่าต้นทุนร้อยละ 14.5 ของค่าไฟฟ้ามาจากธุรกิจจำหน่าย
3. ค่า CO2 ที่ 10 ยูโร/ตัน
4. ค่า Externality ตามการศึกษา Extern E ของสหภาพยุโรป และนำมาปรับลดตามค่า GDP ต่อหัวของไทย
The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT’s PDP,
6. ตามระเบียบ SPP
7. ที่มา : กฟผ.
8. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), 2050 Multi-Sector CO2 Emissions Abatement Analysis Calculator, 2009
9. Cost of liability protection, Journal “Regulation” 2002 – 2003.

77. Time to review gov’t subsidy to polluting industries with low value added to economy and low competitiveness?
BOI investment privileges should take into account energy and environmental considerations
High energy intensity
Low value added
Low competitiveness

78. Macroeconomic Analysis
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R
Low Quality Education
Low Quality labour
Enabling factors:
MACROECONOMIC
MANAGEMENT
Low
Value Creation
High
Import Contents
& Sheer size of
export to GDP
Energy Intensity
& Low Efficiency
& Unsustainable
structure
(Low margin/return)
Low Quality for Raw-material, machinery and equipment
Insufficient in R&D Investment
No immunity/ High volatility Financial System
Lack of Saving
Lack of regulation on industrial product’s quality control
Low Basic infrastructure and Logistic development
Slow Technology Development

79. Decentralized generation
Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used

80. Energy efficient end-use
Old way
New way
Power plant
Power plant
Biomass
Wind power
Biomass
Solar
Customers
Energy efficient end-use

82. Energy waste in a typical pumping system

83. Sankey Energy Flow Diagram

84. Cogeneration Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

85. 85

87. Very Small Power Producer (VSPP)
These Thai policymakers also knew that rice mills had a lot of waste rice husk. Pig farms have a lot of manure. Sugar factories have sugar cane bagasse. Sawmills have wood scraps. Each of these is a renewable energy source that can contribute to the national power mix, but only if generators have a market for their power. Selling to the national grid is a perfect market because it’s there 24 hours a day. 87 87

88. $
VSPP regulations essentially have two components: a set of technical regulations that provide for a safe flow of electricity from these generators to the national grid;
and a set of commercial regulations regarding the flows of money to the VSPP generators. 88

89. $ Technical regulations: Allowable voltage, frequency, THD variations
Protective relays
1-line diagrams for all cases:
Induction
Synchronous
Inverters
Single/multiple
Connecting at different voltage levels (LV or MV)
Communication channels
Commercial regulations:
Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogeneration
Cost allocation
Principle of standardized tariff determination
Invoicing and payment arrangements
Arbitration
Technical regulations include topics like allowable voltage, frequency variations and specify required protective relays. The commercial regulations focus on how costs are allocated, how tariff amounts are determined, and what happens in the event of disputes.
A standardized PPA eliminates lengthy case-by-case negotiations with utilities. 89

90. Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations
2002
VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet
Up to 1 MW export, renewables only
Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT)
2006
Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogeneration
Feed-in tariff “adder”
If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy
2009
Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset diesel
The Thai regulations were approved in Projects were allowed to come into the program as long as they used reenewable energy and they exported less than 1 MW.
The tariffs were essentially set at the cost per kWh that Thailand’s distribution utilities pay for power they buy from EGAT.
In 2006 the utilities felt comfortable enough with the initial VSPP projects to allow an increase in project size to 10 MW export and efficient cogeneration was also allowed. The government also recognized that VSPP could play a larger role in meeting the nation’s commitment of 8% renewable energy by the year 2011 (recently raised to 20% by year 2022). The upgrade to the regulations also created a technology-specific feed-in tariff subsidy adder.
In 2009 the feed-in tariff was changed to provide additional payments for projects that offset diesel generation, which is still used in Thailand in some remote mountain and island areas.
English versions of the Thai regulations are available at this website:
for English version of regulations, and model PPA 90

91. Thai VSPP feed-in tariffs
Fuel
Adder
Additional for diesel offsetting areas
Additional for 3 southern provinces
Years effective
Biomass
Capacity <= 1 MW $ $ 7
Capacity > 1 MW $
Biogas
<= 1 MW
> 1 MW
Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)
Fermentation $
Thermal process $
Wind
<= 50 kW $ $ 10
> 50 kW
Micro-hydro
50 kW - <200 kW $
<50 kW $
Solar $
This table shows the current VSPP tariffs. Tariffs have evolved to vary depending on:
Fuel type
Geographic location (more for provinces in 3 conflict-prone southern provinces)
Whether or not the project offsets diesel
Capacity
The total tariff is equal to this adder pluse the utility’s avoided cost of power.
Ultimately consumers pay for the adder through a per-kWh pass-through mechanism to all consumers.
Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = U.S. dollars
Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT charge
Biomass tariff = $ $ $ = $0.085/kWh 91

92. Korat Waste to Energy – biogas … an early Thai VSPP project
Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
3 x 1 MW gas generators
Here are some of VSPP projects in operation in Thailand. Thailand is the world’s second largest producer of Cassava, much of which is turned into tapioca flower. The process generates waste water that, when digested, makes a lot of methane. The digester is a covered lagoon the size of a couple football fields – here you can see the lagoon’s black plastic cover. Methane provides thermal energy and electricity for the tapioca factory and excess is sold to the grid under the VSPP program. 92 92

93. Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Biogas from Pig Farms 93 93

94. Biogas from Pig Farms
5000 pigs  $31 / day elec. 94

95. Micro hydropower 40 kW Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand
This community run 40 kW micro-hydro project produces about $13,000 per year worth of electricity in the VSPP program.
40 kW
Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand 95

96. Rice husk-fired power plant
9.8 MW
Roi Et, Thailand
In Thailand there are many rice mills. This is a 9.8 MW SPP that burns rice husk to generate electricity with a steam turbine. 96

97. Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV Project size: 1 MW Uses self-manufactured a-Si
Feed-in tariffs have helped strengthen a burgeoning solar electric manufacturing industry in Thailand. This 1 MW plant uses solar panels manufactured in Thailand. 97

98. Thai VSPP MW applied, received permission, PPA signed, and selling – as of September 2009
Industry has responded strongly to the Thai VSPP program. This chart gives some indication of the pipeline of projects. The columns on the right are MW of VSPP generators that are currently online. There are over 100 projects with a combined capacity of over 725 MW. PPAs have been signed for over 2600 MW. Over 4000 MW have been approved. And over 7200 MW have applied. Clearly not all of the projects that have applied will end up being built, but at the very least it indicates considerable interest by industry.
For reference, Thailand’s 2009 peak load was a bit over 22,000 MW. Cambodia’s peak load in 2007 of 262 MW is shown as this blue square.. 98