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Carey Jang, Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 Applications of CMAQ over the Pacific.

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Presentation on theme: "Carey Jang, Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 Applications of CMAQ over the Pacific."— Presentation transcript:

1 Carey Jang, Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 CMAS Workshop, RTP, 10/20/2004 Applications of CMAQ over the Pacific Region (Trans-Pacific, U.S. and China)

2 OUTLINE Applications of Models-3/CMAQ System over the Pacific Region –Trans-Pacific Transport Modeling of PM, O 3, and Hg –U.S. and China Modeling Comparisons –Overview of China Regional and Urban Air Quality Modeling for Beijing Olympic 2008

3 Trans-Pacific (ICAP) Modeling Domain 12 km western US domain 36 km western US domain 36 km eastern US domain 36 km Annual National US domain 12 km domain 4 km domain Model-3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS China Modeling Domain U.S. Modeling Domain 2001

4 M3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS “Intercontinental” (ICAP) Modeling: EPA (Jang, Doll), UNC-CEP (Hanna, Vukovich, Xiu, Adelman), ANL (Streets), Harvard (Jacob), Stanford (Jacobson), U. of TN (Fu), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Wang, Xie), U. of Houston (Byun) “U.S.” Modeling: EPA Air Quality Modeling Group (Jang, Dolwick, Phillips, Possiel, Timin, Braverman, Houyoux, Fox, etc.) in collaboration with EPA/ORD “China” Modeling: EPA (Jang), U. of TN (Fu), ANL (Streets), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Wang, Xie), China (Tsinghua Univ., SAES, CRAES)

5 Trans-Pacific, U.S., & China Modeling Modeling Tool: U.S.EPA Models-3/CMAQ (“one-atmosphere”, multi-pollutants) system Emissions: North America: l U.S.: NEI 1999 for point, area, mobile & BEIS-3 l Mexico & Canada : 1999 EI & BEIS-3 Asia/China: l TRACE-P/ACE-Asia EI; GEIA for biogenic; l Local emissions for urban Beijing/Shanghai modeling Meteorology: MM5 model (v3.5) for all three modeling domains

6 Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP): EPA’s International Modeling Project Trans-Pacific Transport Modeling of PM, O 3, and Hg

7 Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants: PM ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain

8 ICAP Trans-Atlantic Modeling Domain VOC (PAR) Emissions NO x Emissions

9 PM 2.5 (monthly average, 2001) ug/m3 80 40 ug/m3 JanuaryJuly AprilOctober

10 PM 2.5 & Species ( July average, 2001) SO 2 Emissions ug/m3 40 4 10 20 10 2 ug/m3 PM 2.5Sulfate PM Nitrate PMOrganic PM Other PM 2.5 Elemental Carbon

11 Ozone (Daily max, July 2001) July 12 July 1~31

12 July 2001, Monthly Sum Total Mercury Deposition January 2001, Monthly Sum

13  PM 2.5 (Monthly Average, µ g/m 3 ) Impact from Asian Man-made Emissions  PM 2.5 (Monthly Average, µ g/m 3 ) Impact from Asian Man-made Emissions 22 ug/m3 2 2 JanuaryApril July October (Base case – Asian manmade emissions removed) ug/m3

14 July O 3 monthly avg. impact April O 3 monthly avg. impact 4 ppb 4  O 3 (Monthly Average, ppb)  O 3 (Monthly Average, ppb) Impact from Asian Man-made Emissions

15 2001 (Base) IPCC 2030 A1B (Growth) IPCC 2030 B1 (Sustainable Development) NO Emissions SO 2 Emissions January 15, 2001

16 January 2001 (Base Case) IPCC 2030 A1B (Growth Scenarios) IPCC 2030 B1 (Sustainable Development) PM 2.5 (Monthly Average) 100

17 July 2001 (Base Case) IPCC 2030 A1B (IPCC Growth Scenarios) IPCC 2030 B1 (Sustainable Development) 70 Ozone (Monthly Average)

18 Trans-Pacific (ICAP) Modeling Domain 12 km western US domain 36 km western US domain 36 km eastern US domain 36 km Annual National US domain 12 km domain 4 km domain China Modeling Domain U.S. Modeling Domain 2001 Model-3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS

19 Phase 2 U.S.-China AQ Management Assessment Project & China AQ Modeling Assessment Pilot Projects 36-km 12-km 4-km China national/regional modeling effort to be completed in Nov. 2003 Beijing & Shanghai urban modeling efforts are underway Phase 1

20 China Modeling: PM 2.5 Speciation (July, 2001) Sulfate PMNitrate PM Elemental CarbonOrganic PM 15 5

21 U.S. Modeling: PM 2.5 Speciation (July 2001) Sulfate PMNitrate PM Elemental Carbon Organic PM 104 1.5

22 2008 (Business as usual) Projected Air Quality over China in 2008 (July 4-20, 2001, episodic average) 2008 (Growth Scenario) 2008 (Control Scenario) PM 2.5 (Man-made emissions + 50%)(Man-made emissions -- 50%) (No change from 2001)

23 2008 (Business as usual) Projected Air Quality over China in 2008 (July 4-20, 2001, episodic max) 2008 (Growth Scenario) 2008 (Control Scenario) Ozone (Man-made emissions -- 50%)(Man-made emissions +50%) (No change from 2001)

24 China National/ Regional Domain 36-km grid 12-km grid Yangtze River Delta/ Shanghai region 4-km grid Beijing/ Tianjin region 4-km grid China Air Quality Modeling Projects Models-3/CMAQ Applications

25 AQ Issues in China/Beijing: PM 2.5 & Ozone Traditional Pollutants (Mr. X. Yu, US-China AQ meeting, DC, 2002) (Prof. Y.H. Zhang, ITAP workshop, Germany, 2002) Ozone PM 2.5 Beijing 100 ppb 15 ug/m 3 200 ppb

26 Smog in Beijing, China (Sept. 24, 2004) Smog Impact on Radiative Properties & Thermal Structure (AQ & Climate links)

27 Beijing Urban Modeling: (4-km) (July 4-20, 2001, Episode max) O 3 (max) Episode avg.) O 3 (avg.) 160 100 ppb Beijing

28 VOC/NOx Ratio (July avg.) China U.S. (July 4-20, 2001, episode avg.) (July 1996, monthly avg.)

29 O 3 Indicators (NOx- or VOC-limited) VOC/NOx H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 (July 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)

30 (January 4-20, 2001, Episode avg.) Beijing Urban Modeling: (4-km) PM 2.5

31 Regional pollutants transport may affect air quality in Beijing Beijing Tianjin pollutants Clouds pollutants (MODIS Satellite Image, December 24, 2003)

32 1920 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 City /Town County State/ Multi-Counties Federal/ Multi-State Air Pollution Control in 21 st Century International

33

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