1. LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS OF ESTONIAN WOOD FUEL SUPPLY Rauno Reinberg Vilnius, Lithuania

2. 1. General data about forest resources 2. Long-term prognosis Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests 3. Supply-demand balance of wood fuel

3. 1. General data about forest resources According to the latest forest surveys, the area of woodland in Estonia is 2,25 Mha (51,5% of land area) and the calculated growing stock is 462 Mm 3. The distribution of forest land by ownership categories is following: the area of state forests districts 37%, private forests 37%, forests under land reform 31%, forests of other owners 1%.

4. Forest tree species

5. The allowable level of utilization of forest resources has been fixed in forestry development programmes, which are composed usually for the 10 years periods. In the Forestry Development Programme 1997 – 2001 the allowable level of cuttings was fixed to be 7,81 Mm 3 annually. For the Forestry Development Programme 2001-2010 the annual allowable cut was re-estimated. It was fixed on the level of 12,6 Mm 3 of merchantable wood and 0,5 Mm 3 of sanitary cuttings.

6. Re-estimated annual allowable cut for Estonia, Mm 3

7. 2. Long-term prognosis * Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal * Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests

8. Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal At the moment in Estonia a new Forest Act is under development, which may change the maturity norms of the forests. The impact of changing the maturity ages was analyzed. the valid official maturity norms stated by the Forest Act from the year 1998; the maturity norms, proposed by the project of the Forest Act;

9. Conclusions: If the Estonian forests will be managed according to the valid Forest Act, the annual yield in long- run will be 7,50 Mm 3. But if the project of the Forest Act will be enforced and the maturity ages of the forests increased, the annual yield in long-run will be 7,13 Mm 3. The total harvesting volume will be 375 thousand m 3 less compared with the valid regulations due to the lower increment of older forests. The quantities of logs, small dimension logs and pulpwood will decrease. Correspondingly the volumes of harvesting residues (tops and branches) will decrease also. Only the volume of traditional fuelwood will be bigger, as the share of the rotten trees and the volume of low quality assortments will increase. Estimation of the production capacity of forests carried out by Estonian Agricultural University

10. Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests

11. Today the share of older forests is relatively high and the real harvested volumes may be bigger. For the calculation of the yield of the fuel wood the following data was used: For state forests the data of the information system of the Estonian State Forest Management Organization was used. The data has been continuously updated and covers nearly 100% of the area of the state forests. But only a part of private forests is described by fresh inventory data and therefore the available data had to be generalized.

12. Maturation of private forests by dominating tree species since 2002

13. Maturation of state forests by dominating tree species since 2002

14. Maturation of Estonian forests by dominating tree species since 2002

15. Prognosis of the yield of the fuelwood from private forests in 2003-2032

16. The potential yield of fuelwood, thousand m3

17. Forecast of the wood fuel supply for the coming 30 years Due to the big share of mature aspen and grey alder stands, in private forests the dominating assortment is fuelwood. The data indicates that today we can use for energy production about 5 Mm 3 of fuelwood and forest residues, after 30 years about 2.3 Mm 3. After 35-40 years the harvesting volumes are expected to stabilize and then a slight increase will follow.

18. Conclusions: The potential yield of fuelwood from private and state forests today is about 3 238,5 thousand m3 (2 795,3 + 443,2), but it will decrease more than three times to the level of 959,3 (582,6 + 376,7) thousand m3 by the year 2032. These changes are caused by the changes of the age structure and the composition of stands by tree species, mainly due to the better management of private forests. The quantities of harvesting residues will decrease from 1 802,1 thousand m3 (1349,6 + 452,5) to the level of 1 322,2 thousand m3 (937,6 + 384,6). These changes are mainly determined by the decrease of the harvesting volumes. So, today we can use for energy production about 5 Mm3 of fuelwood and residues, after 30 years about 2,3 Mm3. Also the results of the modelling in the case of normal age distribution indicated, that in the future the available quantities of wood fuel will be smaller than today. All these figures show the theoretical potential, the real utilized quantities depend on the wood market and may be much less.

19. 3. Supply-demand balance of wood fuel

20. Supply of wood fuel in Estonia

21. The demand-supply balance of wood fuel by counties (2004)

22. The demand-supply balance of wood fuel by counties (long-term prognosis)

23. The data confirms, that in long-run the supply with wood fuels will not be sufficient to keep the consumption on the present level. The biggest shortage of fuel is expected in Tartumaa and Harjumaa counties. The conclusion is, that though in the near future there are sufficient resources of wood fuel available, in long-run the situation is not promising.