1. Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Recent Historic Tornado Events Marc Kavinsky Senior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFO NWA 31 st Annual Meeting 14-19 October 2006 19 October 2006 NOAA’s National Weather Service

2. Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado Events 23 June 2004 23 June 2004 –5 th Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History 17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s 1 death1 death 28.8 million damage28.8 million damage 18 August 200518 August 2005 –Worst Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History Wisconsin History 27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s New daily, monthly (27)New daily, monthly (27) New yearly record (62)New yearly record (62) »Previous yearly record was 43 -1980 43 million damage43 million damage 1 death, 27 injuries1 death, 27 injuries

3. Supercell/Severe Wx Forecasting BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear 40 kts and higher 30 kts and higher 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity 150 m2/s2 and higher Mean Layer Cape (MLCape) 1000 j/kg and higher Mid Level Lapse Rates/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ ThetaE Difference Indicators for hail and microbursts Boundaries Windshift, Density, Thermal Moderate to Strong Potential

4. F2-F5 Tornadic Supercell Forecasting 0-1 km Bulk Shear 20 kts or more Mean Layer LCL 1.2 km (3900 ft) or less 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity 100 m2/s2 or more Mean Layer CIN -50 j/kg or higher 0-3 km CAPE 60 j/kg or more 0-3 km Vorticity Generation Potential 0.30 or greater Mean Layer LFC <2 km (6500 ft) Strong Boundaries Moderate to Strong Potential

5. 24 June 2004 4 panel 01z

6. 24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z

7. 23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast 60 55 50 40 0-6 km Bulk Shear 1000 1500 2000 ML Cape 150 200 250 0-3 km SRH Surface Boundary 00z/24

8. 23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast 0-3 km Cape 125 100 75 50 15 20 25 0-1 km Bulk Shear <-50 >-50 MLCIN 0-3 km VGP 0.2 0.3 0.35 0.2 2500 2000 1500 1000 MLLCL 00z/24

9. 23 June 2004 - Tornadoes F0-F1 F2 F3

10. 19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z

11. 19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z

12. 18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast 40 45 50 0-6 km Bulk Shear 150 200 250 300 400 0-3 km SRH 1000 1500 2000 2500 MLCape L 1003 23z/18

13. 18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast 15 20 30 0-1km Bulk Shear 200 150 100 0-3 km Cape MLCINAll CIN greater than -50 2600 3300 2000 MLLCL 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-3km VGP 23z/18

14. 18 August 2005 - Tornadoes F0-F1 F2 F3

15. Conclusions… Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado parameters Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado parameters

16. Acknowledgements Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKX Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKX SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive Bill Borghoff – graphics Bill Borghoff – graphics Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX

17. 18 June 2006 – 4 Panel 21z

18. 18 June 2006 – 4 Panel 18z

19. 18 June 2006 – 300 mb 18z

20. 18 June 2006 Supercell Forecast

21. 18 June 2006 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast