1. The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective
Paul Dodds

2. Introduction Who we are and what we do Energy system models
Initial thoughts on the water-food-energy nexus
Our interests in this research area

3. Who we are and what we do
UCL Energy Institute (energy systems, buildings, transport)
UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources (food, bioenergy, water, mineral and petrochemical resources, and waste, from environmental, economic and policy perspectives)
Energy systems:
UK MARKAL energy systems model, which underpins UK government decarbonisation strategies.
TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) is a global energy systems model with a climate component and a UK region
Policy work

4. MARKAL modelling for UK policy
2007
2010
EWP 03
CAT Strategy
Energy Review
EWP 07
CC Bill
2000
STND
MACRO
MED
UKERC, Research council projects, UK-Japan LCS, Ofgem, NGOs etc
UK Government
UK Government, CCC
Model type
Funding
Rapid simple structured model development to inform EWP 03
CCS enhancement for CAT strategy
Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with MACRO extension
MED model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios
CCC 1st report
CCC & DECC analysis
LCTP
TIAM-UCL, Stochastic
CAT – Carbon Abatement Technologies
Stochastic MED model , Global TIMES model (UKERC) 4

5. Assessing Energy, Economy, Engineering & Environment (E4) Interactions
ENERGY AND ECONOMY
AVAILABILITY/CHOICE
OF TECHNOLOGIES
GDP & CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS
MARKAL-
MACRO/ED
ENERGY SERVICES
DEMANDS
ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
RESOURCES AND TRADE
TRADE (including IET)
MINING LIMITS &
ENVIRONMENTAL
LIMITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
EFFECTS
ENVIRONMENT 32

7. Characterisation of MARKAL/TIMES
Linear
Partial equilibrium
Perfect foresight
Bottom-up
Energy-economic-environment-engineering
Cost-optimisation
Energy flows, environmental constraints, economic and policy focus

8. Energy Modelling typology
Top-down
Bottom-up
Behaviour
Computable general equilibrium
Macro-econometric
Simulation
Econometric
Optimisation
Growth models
Hybrid Models
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate
Always a trade-off in model type, focus and implementation

9. Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus
Self sufficiency
How will climate change and population growth affect domestic and agricultural supplies? New investment?
How will food production change in the future? Long-term trends and short-term variability
Will the UK become dependent on foreign energy supplies? How will climate variability affect future production?
Security
Will the price of water increase to an unsustainable level for part of the population?
How will local production and world food price trends and fluctuations affect the price of food for the UK population?
How will local production and world energy price trends and fluctuations affect the price of energy for the UK population?
National and international scales
Short-term and long-term trends
Water is very much a national problem

10. Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus
How can the UK government mitigate the impact of global water, food and energy shortages in the long term?
How could the impact of water, food and energy insecurities in other countries affect the UK?
Public disorder
Cross-border conflicts over resources
Mass migration
Are there economic opportunities for the UK caused by water, food and energy insecurities abroad?

11. Water-food-energy interactions
Are there currently strong links between water, food and energy in the UK?
Could there be strong links in the future?
e.g. land uses for crops or bioenergy – with a high CO2 price, producing biomass could be much more lucrative for UK farmers than producing food in the future (McDowall et al. 2012).
Should we consider short-term phenomena (e.g. interrupted electricity supplies due to flooding)?

12. UCL ISR research programme
Our interests in this area – not just energy but also sustainable use of resources