1. Climate Change and Assessment Working Group June 2002

2. General Theme for Next Five Years of CCSM Climate Change and Assessment Working Group  Quantifying uncertainty in climate change projections  Steps to accomplish this objective: 1. Improve regional climate simulation and extremes: higher resolution atmospheric component, T85, T170 coupled simulations 2. Probabilistic projections of climate change: Ensemble simulations with various forcings and scenarios 3. Understand model response to changes of forcing a.single model--sensitivity experiments with CCSM b.coordinated experiments involving other models from different modeling centers in addition to CCSM Key issue for this objective: Model data transfer, storage and access

3. Distributed Involvement DOE and NSF Supported Project with : u Los Alamos National Laboratory* u National Center for Atmospheric Research* u Naval Postgraduate School u Oak Ridge National Laboratory* u University of Texas, Austin u Scripps Oceanographic Institute u DOE Program on Climate Diagnostics and Intercomparison u U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory u National Energy Research Supercomputer Center* u Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory u Argonne National Laboratory *computing support

4. Data Users and Collaborators F F Greg Ostermeier, U. Washington F F David Pierce, Scripps F F Wilfred Post, ORNL F F Gerald Potter, LLNL F F Jouni Raisane, Swedish Met. & Hydro. Institute F F Thomas Reichler, U. California F F Alex Sim, LBNL F F Dennis Shea, NCAR F F Scott Smith, LANL F F Ken Sperber, LLNL F F Ronald Stouffer, NOAA F F Youichi Tanimoto, Japan Network Information Center F F John Taylor, Argonne F F Tony Tubbs, Scripps F F Dmitry Vjushin, Bar-llan U. Israel F F Warren Washington, NCAR F F John Weatherly, CRREL F F Michael Wehner, LLNL F F Dean Williams, LLNL F F Andrew Wood, U. Washington F F Kao J. Chin Yue, LANL F F Alan Ziegler, Princeton University F F Justin Hnilo, LLNL F F Regine Hock, Swedish Royal Institute of Technology F F James Hack, NCAR F F Charles Hakkarinen, EPRI F F Tony Hirst, CSIRO F F Roy Jenne, NCAR F F M. Kanamitsu, U. California F F Vladimir Kattsov, Russian Academy of Science F F Kevin Keay, U. Melbourne F F Chick Keller, LANL F F Helen Kettle, Edinburgh U. F F Jeff Kiehl, NCAR F F Kwang Yul Kim, Florida State F F Tom Knutson, NOAA F F Eric Leuliette, CU F F Hans Luthardt, DKRZ F F Bob Malone, LANL F F Vadim Matyugn, Russian Academy of Science F F Gerald Meehl, NCAR F F Sylvia Murphy, NCAR F F Robert Oglesby, NASA Ames F F Bill Anderson, NCAR F F Jeffrey Annis, Scripps F F Julie Arblaster, NCAR F F Raymond Arritt, Iowa State F F Tim Barnett, Scripps F F Pat Behling, U. Wisconsin F F Cecilia Bitz, U. Washington F F Marcia Branstetter, U. Texas F F James Boyle, LLNL F F Curtis Covey, LLNL F F Ulrich Cubasch, DKRZ F F Aiguo Dai, NCAR F F Clara Deser, NCAR F F Charles Doutriaux, LLNL F F Bob Drach, LLNL F F Wesley Ebisuzaki, NOAA F F Irene Fischer-Burn, DKRZ F F Peter Gleckler, LLNL F F B. Govindasamy, LLNL F F John Gregory, IPCC F F Vadim Guzey, U. Adelaide, Australia F F James Hack, NCAR F F Charles Hakkarinen, EPRI

5. DOE and NSF Research Interest u Develop climate modeling capability that takes advantage of new generation parallel architecture supercomputers u Develop model components and coupled models that can be used for energy policy, IPCC, and the National Assessments

6. History CSM1 and PCM1 u Built for vector Computers u Atmosphere: CCM3 u Ocean component: NCAR ocean model u Sea ice simplified dynamics and thermodynamics u Built for parallel Computer system u Atmosphere: CCM3 u Ocean component: Parallel Ocean Program (POP) u Sea ice Model -Naval Postgraduate School model: VP, P&W

7. Examples of Climate Change Experiments u Greenhouse gases u Sulfate aerosols (direct effect) u Carbon aerosols u Stratospheric ozone u Land surface changes u Volcanic forcing u Solar change forcing u Biomass burning u Various energy/emissions use strategies

8. Change of Extremes u Heat waves, cold snaps u Floods, droughts u First freeze dates, hard freeze frequency u Precipitation intensity u Diurnal temperature

9. CSM Climate Change Simulations u 1% CO 2 increase year u Historical 1870 to present (GHG) u Historical 1870 to present (GHG+SA) u Ensemble (4) Historical 1870 to present (GHG+SA+Solar) u 21st Century Business as Usual (BAU), IPCC A1(5), A2, and B2 u 21st Century with improved ocean features

10. PCM 1% CO2 Increase/Year u Control simulation– 300 years u Ensemble of 5 capped at 2X CO 2 u One simulation capped at 4X CO 2 u One simulation with 0.5% per year capped at 2X CO 2

11. 80 Simulations later!

12. PCM Historical and Future Simulations u Use of CSM greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing u 1870 control simulation (approximately 1000 years) u Historical 1870 to present u IPCC “Business as Usual” assumption u IPCC stabilization assumption u Ensemble of 10 for Historical, BAU/STAB ensemble 5 u Solar variability simulation-ensemble of 4 u Simulations to year 2200-ensemble BAU/STAB 3 u Additional simulations aimed separation of natural forcing from anthropogenic forcing

13. Dissect Forcing u GHS + Sulfate aerosols u GHS + Sulfate aerosols + Volcanic u GHS + Sulfate aerosols + Volcanic +Solar u Above + ozone fixed in time u Different combinations of the above such as solar only, etc

14. Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Demonstration Project u End to end test of climate prediction. Initialize ocean to global prediction of climate change to regional modeling of climate change to special impacts models such as hydrological models of small regions u Several (6) special PCM simulations with 6 hour output for regional models u Special issue of Climate Change in 2002

15. Ongoing and Future Climate Change Simulations u Simulations with carbon aerosol distributions with the PCM u Volcanic+solar ensembles with the PCM u Volcanic+solar ensemble without ozone changes with the PCM u Simulations related to energy use impacts on the climate system - ACPI demonstration project u Land surface change simulations u Sulfur cycle with varying SO2 emissions, 20 th century u Future climate simulation with statistical solar and volcanic data u Simulations with CCSM2 T42 atmosphere u Simulations with CCSM2 T85 atmosphere u Future climate simulation with interactive carbon cycle

17. DOE Earth System Grid/ SciDac Development u Simulations at NSF, LANL, NERSC, and ORNL ( 70 Tbytes of data, 80 simulations already) u Archives at PCMDI, NERSC, NCAR, ORNL, LANL u Easy access for transferring large data sets u Catalog system across distributed system u Cooperative Program between DOE laboratories and NCAR

18. Coupled Model Inter- Comparison Program (CMIP) Coordinated Simulations u Testing the effects of weakened thermohaline North Atlantic circulation u Other simulations expected

19. T42 Resolution T85 Resolution

20. Issues u Need updated climate change scenario forcing: GHGs and sulfur cycle; carbon cycle, land- surface changes (U. of Kansas); volcanic u Higher resolution for atmospheric component (T85 and T170) u High computer performance is a very high imperative u Ensembles are an imperative: Typically 3 to 5 u Continue policy of making simulations openly available soon after completion

21. CCSM2/CCA Diagnostics u For quick looks, using component model log files u Time series of globally-averaged fields u Generated twice per day u Can show up to six experiments simultaneously u Provides instant analysis of model state, and can indicate if the experiment becomes unstable

22. Recent Highlights u Currently producing the “first” fully coupled climate simulation using the T85 CAM atmospheric model with CCSM2.0 (all previous simulations have used T42), which will provide more regional climate change detail

24. Future Directions (2003) u Use higher CCSM2 atmospheric and ocean/sea ice horizontal model resolution for regional climate change studies u T42 historical (1870-2100) climate change studies with CCSM2 (sulfur cycle included) u Use output from July Workshop for the development of future scenarios u Conduct climate change research on carbon aerosols and land surface changes u Explore with Biogeochemistry Working Group the carbon cycle

25. Future Direction (2003-2005) During this time frame it is expected that we will devote much of our resources primarily to IPCC and National Assessments Simulations

26. The End