1. 2012 Regional Economic Outlook May 2012

2. minneapolisfed.org Disclaimer The views expressed here are the presenter's and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.

3. minneapolisfed.org

4. Agenda  Ninth District Economy –Outlook Surveys Models –Sector Analysis Agriculture Manufacturing Home building

5. District 9 Cleveland

6. Ninth District Economy: Growth in 2012 Business leaders remain optimistic Employment up, modest unemployment rate reductions Small wage and price increases Agriculture sector strong & manufacturing upbeat Slow home building sector

8. Employment expected to expand across the district

9. Business leaders expect increased employment at their companies *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

10. Unemployment rates will decrease modestly

11. Business leaders anticipate small wage increases

12. Business leaders foresee some price increases *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

13. Personal income growth expected to increase *Forecast for North Dakota has a wide 70 percent confidence interval.

15. Manufacturing survey reveals growth in 2011; faster growth expected in 2012 *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

16. However, manufacturing respondents to business poll expect more modest growth in 2012 *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

18. Source: Lender Processing Services (LPS)

19. Delinquent Payment: 90+ PD, Foreclosure

20. Business leaders expect slower home building *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

25. Ninth District Economy: Growth in 2012 Business leaders remain optimistic Employment up, modest unemployment rate reductions Small wage and price increases Agriculture sector strong & manufacturing upbeat Slow home building sector

26. Questions?