1. Political Knowledge and Learning 23 February, 2011

2. Roles of the News Media in Democracy Politicians Mass public Mass media

3. What does the Public Know? Ideology

4. What does the Public Know? Ideology EUNHS Public transport

5. What does the Public Know? Ideology EU NHS Public transport 2009 Ideology EU NHS Public transport 2010

6. 1997 UK General Election Party in favour of … % correct Privatizing railways 81 Minimum wage 75 LA control of schools 56 Tax/spending cuts 49 Proportional representation 40 Scottish independence 32

7. Political Knowledge in the US Source: Pew ResearchPew Research

8. Alternative Views of the Public: Low Information Rationality  Heuristics  Rational individuals do not follow politics closely  Small cues provide information from which individuals make inferences

9. Alternative Views of the Public: The ‘Miracle’ of Aggregation  Premise: The voice of the public is a collective one  Therefore aggregate public opinion matters more than individual public opinion

10. Alternative Views of the Public: The ‘Miracle’ of Aggregation  Imagine an election with 2 candidates: Candidates A and B  90% of the electorate is ignorant, 10% informed  For 90% of the electorate their vote is random – Candidate A 45%, Candidate B 45%.

11. Alternative Views of the Public: The ‘Miracle’ of Aggregation 1.The election therefore hinges on the decisions of the informed segment of the public 2. The outcome is the same as would occur if all members of the electorate were informed

12. Alternative Views of the Public: The ‘Miracle’ of Aggregation (USA )

13. Alternative Views of the Public: The ‘Miracle’ of Aggregation (Britain)

14. Alternative Views of the Public: The Public as Thermostat

15.  Public demands more spending in a policy area (more government)  Government responds e.g., public services in 1990s (UK), defence spending (US) 1980s, stimulus (US) 2009 e.g., public services in 1990s (UK), defence spending (US) 1980s, stimulus (US) 2009

16. Alternative Views of the Public: The Public as Thermostat  Public demands less spending in a policy area (less government)  Government responds e.g., public sector in 1980s (UK), defence spending (US) 1990s

17. Problems with Aggregate Pictures of Public Opinion  Views of the politically ignorant are not randomly distributed  The proportion of voters who are politically informed matters normatively …

18. Problems with Aggregate Pictures of Public Opinion  Views of the politically ignorant are not randomly distributed  The proportion of voters who are politically informed matters normatively … which brings us full circle

19. Changes in Public Opinion A function of three factors: 1. Reception 2. Resistance 3. Acceptance

20. Changes in Public Opinion ReceptionResistanceAcceptance Low knowledge LeastLeastMost Medium knowledge MiddleMiddleMiddle High knowledge MostMostLeast

21. Changes in Public Opinion