1. CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL ARGENTINA Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER UNIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-Argentina Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research Community 6-8 October 2001

2. Argentina Córdoba Province Study area

3. OBJECTIVES n To understand how climate information is actually used and may be used in the future by policymakers and end users, to improve decisiones in the agricultural sector and to mitigate the negative impact of climate hazards n To know stakeholders perception of climate risks and how they incorporate climate information in their decision-making process, according to the political context and to the underlying level of farmers’ vulnerability

4. Materials and Methods n In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid appraisal to determine the range of variation in farm type and size, access to resources, infrastructure, etc through interviewing key informant and focus-group. n A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% of the total number) was chosen for individual interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in farm/households types. n Qualified groups, according to decision making levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local utilities providers, regional farmers consortium managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also interviewed.

5. Materials and Methods Survey n Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.) n Importance and sources of weather information; users’ knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and content of a climate forecast. n Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using an statistical package (SPSS).

6. Socio-economic characteristics  Farmers’ age30-45 years 29% 45-60 years 45% > 60 years21%  Education levelPrimary 51% High26% Univer.21%  Farm size> 2000 ha 4 % 500-2000 ha42% 250-500 ha33% < 250 ha21%

7. Socio-economic characteristics  Farm typeMixed type> agric.35% > livestock25% > livestock25% equal30% soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%  Land tenureowner 93% tenant 3%  Rent more land55%  Request of credit50%  Applied technology crop rotation100% no till46% hybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicide95% irrigation 3%; fertilizers59%

8. 16.2% 18.1% 61.9% 3.8% None Climate+Weather For. Weather Forecast Climate Forecast

9. Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers Age

10. Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers’ education level

11. Farmer's perception of ENSO impacts on regional climate Farmer's perception Never heard about them Not understand impact Niño rain Niño>rain-Niña<rain Percent 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 17 11 67

12. Farmer’s perception of ENSO impacts related to age

13. Perception of ENSO related to farmers’ education level

15. Influence of climate information on farmers’ managemet decisiones related to farmers’age

16. Influence of climate information on farmers’ management decisiones related to farmers’education level

17. Weather and climate forecast: farmers' credibility Improve cred. None are credible Weather-High cred. Weather-Climate Cred Climate:No credible Climate-less cred. Climate-high cred. Percent 40 30 20 10 0 9 14 33 8 9 27

18. 5.8% 15.4% 3.8% 8.7% 1.9% 5.8% 58.7% Lack of interest Not credibles Bad distr.channels Very general Tables/charts unclear Difficult to understand None

19. Farmers' management decisions are also influenced by: none Exp. prices and prod Exp.Nat.-Int. prices Exp.National Prices Percent 30 20 10 0 30 25 23

20. Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’age

21. Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’ education level

22. Which decisions would you probably change in response to a climate forecast: n crop mix (area planted)54% n plant density76% n pesticide and fertlizer amount55% n planting date69% n other type 2% Characteristics of an useful climate forecast n Timing n Content: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat. n Format: means; means+actual data;comparison with past years; above normal, near normal or below normal with the associated probabilities. Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - 43%; explanations - 11%

23. Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ age

24. Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ education level

27. Other inst. and prevention agencies

30. CONCLUSIONS Users of climate and weather information required: Users of climate and weather information required:  Forecast tailored to their needs  Improve accuracy, timing and format  Downscale temporally and spatially to users’ specific locations To promote climate forecast use, it is necessary:  to improve users’ knowledge about regional weather and climate  to educate users about the differences between weather and climate forecasts.  to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of climate information  to improve communication between researchers and end users