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AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow.

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Presentation on theme: "AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow."— Presentation transcript:

1 AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow and David F. Zierden NOAA 32 nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Tallahassee, FL October 22-26, 2007

2 Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat

3 Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cattle and calves Cattle and calves

4 Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cattle and calves Cattle and calves Pasture and hay Pasture and hay Vegetables Vegetables Poultry Poultry Blueberry, strawberry Blueberry, strawberry Peaches, citrus & other fruits Peaches, citrus & other fruits

5 Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold AlabamaFloridaGeorgia Crops $590 million $5 billion $1.6 billion Livestock $2.6 billion $1.2 billion $3.3 billion Total value $3.2 billion $6.2 billion $4.9 billion U.S. Rank 23914 Source: USDA 2002 Census of Agriculture

6 ENSO and Agriculture in the SE ENSO significantly influenced the value of corn, peanuts, soybean and tobacco (Hansen et al., 1998). ENSO significantly influenced the value of corn, peanuts, soybean and tobacco (Hansen et al., 1998). ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million, or 26%, in the value of corn. ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million, or 26%, in the value of corn.

7 ENSO and Agriculture in the SE $165 million of losses due to the 1997- 1998 El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag) $165 million of losses due to the 1997- 1998 El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag)

8 Farmer Joe’s Questions ENSO SST

9 Management Decisions Variety selection Variety selection Planting dates Planting dates

10 Management Decisions Variety selection Variety selection Planting dates Planting dates Acreage allocation Acreage allocation Amount and type of crop insurance Amount and type of crop insurance Marketing Marketing Purchase inputs Purchase inputs

11 Florida State University – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools, water resources University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment University of Georgia – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools, climate, water resources, assessment Auburn University – extension, economics, insurance University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources Southeast Climate Consortium

12 Major Activities AgClimate (www.AgClimate.org) AgClimate (www.AgClimate.org)www.AgClimate.org Training and education Training and education Interaction with growers and producers Interaction with growers and producers

13 AgClimate Main mechanism for dissemination of information Main mechanism for dissemination of information  Tools  Outlooks

14 AgClimate Website http://www.agclimate.org

15 AgClimate Tools

16 Oct 1-Jan 15: 560 chill hours El Niño

17 Oct 1-Jan 15: 462 chill hours La Niña

18 Seasonal Outlooks

19 SECC Climate Outlook

20 State Climatologists AL, FL, and GA SECC Climate Outlook Press release Farmers & Ranchers Extension mailing list Regional TV & Radio

21 SECC Climate Outlook

22

23 SECC Agricultural Outlook SECC Extension Specialists SECC Ag Outlook Research & Extension (Auburn, UGA, UF) State Climatologists AL, FL, GA Press release Farmers & Ranchers Extension mailing list Regional TV & Radio

24 SECC Agricultural Outlook

25 Extension Articles

26 Extension Newsletter

27 Specific management recommendation - developed by Commodity Extension Specialist

28 County Agent Trainings AgClimate workshop (Jan 26, 2005)

29 County Agent Trainings AgClimate workshop for county agents (Statesboro, Georgia; Feb 7, 2006) AgClimate workshop for county agents (Griffin, Georgia; Feb 7, 2007)

30 Working with Farmers and Stakeholders Meeting with adivsory group in Headland, Alabama (February 26, 2007).

31 John Bellow showing the different features of the AgCclimate chill accumulation tool to Kathy Taylor (UGA Stone Fruit Specialist) and Frank Funderburk (Peach Co. Extension Coordinator). L-R: Joel Paz and Rabiu Olatinwo with Bob Kemerait (Extension Plant Pathologist) and Albert Culbreath (Plant Pathologist). Working with Research and Extension Faculty

32 Challenges Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts Improve availability of timely updates Improve availability of timely updates How can the SECC improve the partnership with the Ag. Research Faculty and Cooperative Extension Service? How can the SECC improve the partnership with the Ag. Research Faculty and Cooperative Extension Service?

33 Thank you! Dr. Joel O. Paz University of Georgia Griffin, GA 770-228-7399 jpaz@uga.edu

34 Regional Yield Maps

35 Rainfed Peanut (Georgia)

36 SECC Objectives Outreach Outreach Research and Development Research and Development Partnerships Partnerships Monitoring & Assessment Monitoring & Assessment

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