1. Space-Time Modelling to support local policing Robert Haining Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, England. AAG; New York; Feb 2012 1

2. INTRODUCTION Recent trends in policing in the UK (Crime and Disorder Act 1998): greater use of intelligence-led, proactive, inter- agency, crime prevention measures; recognition of the importance of people’s fear of crime and of “re-assurance”. The importance of the neighbourhood for delivering crime reduction strategies and tackling the fear of crime. targeted strategies (no cold calling zones; crime hotspot responses); tailored strategies (situational crime prevention measures; reassurance policing). 2

3. Together with the availability of geo-coded offence, offender, victim data => - opportunities to explore the importance of place and space in crime and criminality; - provide inputs into policing practice at different scales: risk mapping and modelling; crime hotspot detection; policy assessment. Bayesian Hierarchical Models: exploiting spatial and temporal autocorrelation; exploring spatial and temporal heterogeneity. 3

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5. PROJECT 1: Policy evaluation: ‘no-cold calling’ zones in Peterborough, England. Guangquan Li, Sylvia Richardson and Nicky Best Imperial College, London 5

6. Background to project Cold calling is a visit or a telephone call to a consumer by a trader, whether or not the trader supplies goods or services, which takes place without the consumer expressly requesting the contact. Not illegal but often associated with “rogue trading”; and doorstep cold calling associated with burglary. Creation of “no cold calling” (NCC) zones. 6

7. Setting up an NCC zone combines: “re-assurance policing” Reducing fear of crime by prioritising a crime and disorder threat that concerns neighbourhood residents. situational crime prevention reducing crime by altering the “environment” so as to (i) reduce the opportunity to offend and (ii) increase the risk of getting caught if the motivated offender chooses to offend. has roots in Rational Choice Theory (Cornish and Clarke, 1986); Routine Activity Theory (Cohen and Felson, 1979) 7

8. advice to residents on how to deal with cold callers; police presence through street and household signage; Trading Standards approve legitimate cold calling; Target hardening; Higher levels of surveillance; information sharing But do these schemes reduce burglaries in the targeted NCC zones? 8

9. NCC areas in Peterborough 9

10. Data on “No Cold Calling” 10

11. Raw data: aggregated temporal profile Positive impact of policy? 11

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13. Constructing control groups To form a control group, areas are selected on the basis of having similar local characteristics (e.g., burglary rates or deprivation scores) to those in the NCC-targeted group. – Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) are the basic units. IDMatching criterionNo. of LSOAs 1All LSOAs in Peterborough88 2±10% burglary rate of the NCC group in 20059 3±20% burglary rate of the NCC group in 200520 4±30% burglary rate of the NCC group in both 2004 and 20058 5LSOAs containing the NCC-targeted COAs (but excluding the NCC-targeted COAs) 9 (one LSOA is outside Peterborough) 6LSOAs that had “similar” multiple deprivation scores (MDS) to those for the NCC LSOAs in 2004 46 13

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20. Some wider questions arising from the evaluation: Data limitations burglary count as the measure of success short length of time series Impacts before implementation (publicity effects?) Displacement effects? (diffusion of benefits?; net effect?) : threshold or dilution? 20

21. How generalizable are these findings?: Urban schemesRural schemes 21

22. Not all neighbourhoods respond well to targeted strategies (Gillham 1992): persistently high rates of particular crimes; residents want to “fight back”; high levels of social cohesion. In some cases schemes can cause an increase in crime (Pease 1999). 22

23. PROJECT 2: Stable and Time Varying Components of Variation in Burglary Rates in Peterborough, England. Guangquan Li, Sylvia Richardson and Nicky Best Imperial College, London 23

24. Domestic burglaries cluster in space and time reflecting: -Concentrations of events (crime hotspots – more deprived neighbourhoods) - repeat victimization (same or nearby houses – more affluent neighbourhoods) (Bowers 2004) Less well studied is how stable these patterns are over time. 24

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26. Summary of raw data Pairwise correlation plots show positive correlations in the annual burglary rates. 26

27. The basic idea behind the SCM is a)to extract the spatial pattern that is shared across time periods (linked to stable attributes of areas e.g. housing type) and; b)to capture spatial risk patterns that are specific to each time period (linked to changeable attributes e.g. population changes). 27

28. The shared component modelling (SCM) framework 28

29. The figures on the right hand side show which of the local burglary rates are consistently above/below the Peterborough average. 20052006 20072008 2005 2006 20072008 The estimated shared component of the model 29

30. The time-specific maps show which of the local burglary rates are above/below the Peterborough average in each year. 20052006 20072008 20052006 2007 2008 The estimated time-specific patterns 30

31. shared = “predictable” or “stable” pattern – help with longer term targeting of policing resources (strategic planning). – different from “hot-spot analysis” (or cluster analysis) which tends to be useful for immediate action (tactical deployment). specific = “unpredictable” or “unstable” pattern – May be difficult to interpret without expert knowledge; specific circumstances at the time 31

32. SCM with covariates 32

33. Posterior probabilities: shared pattern Maps in the first row highlight LSOAs with consistently and “significantly” higher risk than the Peterborough average. Maps in the second row highlight LSOAs with consistently “significantly” higher risk after adjusting for IMD and JSA. 33

34. Posterior probabilities of the shared pattern scaled to 2006 (adjusted for IMD and JSA) Area 6 (p=0.95) Area 11 (p=0.72) 34

35. Shared component modelling can also be applied to multivariate space-time data (e.g. two or more crimes over several time periods). 35

36. Benefits of multilevel/hierarchical models Multilevel/hierarchical models offer a natural framework to combine information and hence to strengthen estimation. The sparsity issue often encountered in analysing geo- referenced and/or time-series data can be addressed by “smoothing” over space or time or both. Idea is to “borrow information” from neighbouring areas or time periods to produce better (more stable, less noisy) estimates in each area. Modelling spatial or temporal structure achieved by appropriate choice of random effects distribution. 36

37. Benefits of the Bayesian framework Since all parameters are treated as random variables with associated posterior distributions, probability statements about the parameters can be easily made, – the probability of success – the probability that the burglary rate of an area is above the Peterborough average Uncertainty can be naturally accounted for and/or propagated if necessary: – e.g., uncertainty associated with the reference trend estimates can be propagated into measuring the NCC policy's impact. 37

38. Implementation and other issues Estimation of BHM requires computationally intensive simulation methods (McMC) – Implemented in free WinBUGS and GeoBUGS software: www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugswww.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs – Need to ensure the McMC chains have converged to the target distributions. – Free software INLA (Rue et al, 2008) implements fast approximation: www.r-inla.orgwww.r-inla.org Assessing sensitivity of the results to different prior specifications. 38