1. Riga, 9 February 2015 Investing in Youth - Latvia - Preliminary Results and Findings- Sebastian Königs OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs

2. Missions in 2014: Australia, Latvia and Norway December 2014: Issues Paper on Investing in Youth February 2015: Working Paper: “NEET Youth in the Aftermath of the Crisis” Missions planned for 2015 (so far): Sweden and Japan State of affairs: on-going / upcoming country reviews 2

3. 1.Youth in the Latvian Labour Market 2.Who are the NEETs? 3.Income support and poverty among youth 4.Reducing school drop-out and providing disadvantaged youth with relevant professional training 5.Offering NEETs an effective programme guarantee Scope of the Latvian country review 3

4. Youth in the Latvian Labour Market

5. The youth population has shrunk dramatically over the last decade 1. Statistics are for young people aged 15-29 years. Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS and CSB data left panel: size of the youth population (right axis: absolute count, left axis: relative rate) right panel: change in the youth population in %, 2002-13 5

6. Young people have been hit hard during the economic crisis 1. Statistics are for young people aged 15-29 years. Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS and OECD Employment Database left panel: employed youth as a share of the total youth population (in %) right panel: unemployed youth as a share of all active youth (in %) 6

7. The recovery of employment rates was largely due to a demographic effect left panel: youth employment rate, observed and anchored at the population of 2007 (in %) 7 right panel: absolute change in the number of employed youth by sex and level of education 1. Statistics are for young people aged 15-29 years. Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS

8. 16% of youth in Latvia are NEET, only 8% combine study and work 1. Statistics are for young people aged 15-29 years. 2. Results are for 2012 except for Latvia (2013). Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS, EU-LFS and national LFS Labour market status of youth in %, 2012/13 8

9. Who are the NEETs?

10. The jump in NEET rates during the crisis reflects a rise in unemployment 10 inactive and unemployed NEETs as a share of the total youth population (in %) 1.Statistics are for young people aged 15-29 years. 2.Left panel: results are for 2012, except for Latvia (2013) Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS, EU-LFS and national LFS

11. Nearly all NEETs are 20 years and above, and among women, many older NEETs are inactive 11 Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS

12. NEET status and education are closely related, but most NEETs have gone beyond Year 9 12 1.Low education: ISCED 0-2; medium education: ISCED 3-4; high education: ISCED 5-6 Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS

13. NEET rates are higher for non-ethnic Latvians, who account however for the minority among NEETs 13 Source: OECD calculations based on the Latvian LFS

14. NEETs are much more likely to suffer from health problems, and this is especially true for males 14 Share of individuals who report health problems, by subgroup in % 1.Statistics are for young people aged 15-24 years only. 2.The sampling weights used for producing the numbers have not been adjusted after the 2011 census. Source: OECD calculations based on the European Health Interview Survey, 2008

15. Over a 4-year period, nearly half of all youth in Latvia have had at least one NEET spell 15 1. Censored spells are included at their observed length. Source: EU-SILC, longitudinal panels 2008-12 Number and length of NEET spells among youth over a 48-month period (in %) Panel data analysis: Each young person is followed over 48 consecutive months sample members are aged 15-29 yrs at the beginning of the observation period Individuals’ observation periods start in 2005-9 (and finish in 2009-12) NEET spells may represent periods of unemployment or inactivity … and one out of three youth have a spell of 7 months or longer.

16. Single parenthood, the lack of skills and bad health tend to favour repeated or longer NEETs spells 16 1. The listed variables indicate whether an individual with a given benefit spell pattern was a single parent / had low educational attainment / suffered from bad health at one of the four annual measurements during the 48-month observation period. Source: EU-SILC, longitudinal panels 2008-12 Individual characteristics by benefit spell pattern (in % of all individuals)

17. So, who are the NEETs…?: 17 Predominantly in their 20s… 70% with more than just Basic Education Every second one not looking for work (and the share is higher than that among women…) NEET rates are higher among non-ethnic Latvians, but they account for only 40% of all NEETs More than 1 out of 4 with health issues… 40% of NEETs out of employment or training for over a year What’s still missing…? 1.the importance of geographic location 2.views and values

18. Benefit Receipt and Poverty among Youth

19. UB receipt among youth reacted strongly during the crisis but is back to pre-crisis levels 19 1.Statistics are for young people aged 16-29 years. 2.Benefit receipt rates give the number of youth who report having received a positive amount of benefits during the calendar year as a share of the total youth population. 3.The share of individuals who received both UB and DB is negligible and therefore not displayed in the left panel. Source: OECD calculations based on EU-SILC Annual receipt rates of individual-level benefits among youth (in %)

20. UB spell durations tend to be short, but less than half of all young jobseekers qualify 20 1.Statistics are for young people aged 15 years or above in January 2009 and not older than 29 years in December 2011. Source: OECD calculations based on administrative data Unemployment spell durations and numbers among youth registered during the crisis (Jan 2009 – Dec 2011) Share of youth who received UB or DB among those registered as unemployed

21. SA and HB receipt rates have strongly risen since 2007; the opposite is true for FA 21 Annual benefit receipt rates of household-level benefits among youth (in %) 1.Statistics are for young people aged 16-29 years. 2.Benefit receipt rates give the number of youth who report living in a household were some household member received a positive amount of benefits during the calendar year. Source: OECD calculations based on EU-SILC

22. Targeting of benefits is relatively weak, leading to low benefit receipt and higher poverty among unemployed 22 1.Statistics are for young people aged 16-29 years. 2.Benefit receipt rates give the number of youth who report receiving unemployment benefits or disability benefits or who live in a household were some household member received social assistance, housing benefits or family allowances during the calendar year. 3.Individuals are defined as poor if they live in a household with an equivalised household income below 60% of the median income. Source: OECD calculations based on EU-SILC

23. Next steps

24. 1.Youth in the Latvian labour market 2.Who are the NEETs? 3.Income support and poverty among youth 4.Reducing school drop-out and providing disadvantaged youth with relevant professional training –identifying at-risk youth early –coordinating social service providers, schools and other actors to effectively address barriers to school attendance –supporting transitions into professional training for the most disadvantaged 5.Offering NEETs an effective programme guarantee –reaching out to those not in employment, education or training –tailoring solutions to young people’s individual social and educational needs –providing ‘second-chance’ learning options to those with a lack of basic skills Scope of the Latvian country review 24

25. End of March: delivery of a draft report Early April: stakeholder seminar to present results and gather feedback (to be discussed…) End of April: delivery of the final report Timeline 25

26. 26 Contact: Sebastian.Koenigs@oecd.orgSebastian.Koenigs@oecd.org OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs: www.oecd.org/elswww.oecd.org/els Pensions at a Glance 2013: www.oecd.org/pensions/pensionsataglance.htmwww.oecd.org/pensions/pensionsataglance.htm Society at a Glance 2014: www.oecd.org/social/societyataglance.htmwww.oecd.org/social/societyataglance.htm Employment Outlook 2014: www.oecd.org/employment/outlookwww.oecd.org/employment/outlook Newsletter: www.oecd.org/els/newsletterwww.oecd.org/els/newsletter Thank you! @OECD_Social

27. Supplementary slides

28. 28 Total Fertility Rate, 1970-2013 1.The Total Fertility Rate gives the number of children a woman would on average bear during her lifetime given the prevailing age-specific fertility rates. The Replacement Fertility Rates gives the average number of children per woman needed to hold the population constant at given mortality rates. It is approximately 2.1 in developed countries. Source: CBS Fertility rates plummeted in the early-/mid-1990s, and their recovery has been interrupted by the crisis

29. NEETs are much less likely than other youth to live with their parents, but the gap has fallen during the crisis 29 1.Statistics are for young people aged 16-29 years. Source: OECD calculations based on EU-SILC Left panel: household types among youth and NEET youth (in %) Right panel: the share of youth and NEETs living with their parents, 2005-13 in %

30. 15% of NEET spells in Latvia last at most 3 months, while over 40% last longer than one year 30 Duration of NEET spell lengths over a 48-month period (in % of all NEET spells) 1. Lengths of NEET spells observed for a sample of 15-29 year-olds over a period of 48 months during the period 2005-12. Censored spells are included at their observed lengths. Source: EU-SILC, longitudinal panels 2008-12