1. SESSION: RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era Ayesha Dolasa, P.E., LEEP AP BD+C, Program Manager for BEM Systems, Inc In the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, NJ TRANSIT developed a resiliency framework to assess the risk of assets to severe weather impacts. This risk-based approach consists of a semi-quantitative approach to evaluate (i) the criticality of assets based on several criteria and (ii) the vulnerability of assets to impacts such as fluvial flooding, storm surge, high heat, and high wind. Ayesha Dolasa, P.E., LEEP AP BD+C, is an environmental engineer with 15 years of consulting experience providing environmental services. Post-Sandy, she has been working with NJ TRANSIT to develop a long-term sustainability and resiliency plan. In addition, she has been involved with project to evaluate the effects of sea level rise and develop flood mapping tools. Ms. Dolasa serves as a Program Manager for BEM Systems, Inc., an employee-owned consulting engineering and information management firm providing comprehensive environmental services to federal, state, and local government agencies.

2. June 2014 2 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era _______________________________________________ TRB Resiliency Panel June 17, 2014 Presented by: Ayesha Dolasa, PE, LEED AP

3. June 2014 3 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Damage by Sandy - Impetus for Developing Resiliency

4. June 2014 4 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel What is Resiliency? “ Resiliency is not a single outcome. It is a cradle-to-grave process… … to meet three high-level performance criteria: efficiency, sustainability, and survivability.” Volpe (June 2013) Sparta Mississippi

5. June 2014 5 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Developing an approach to determine resiliency by:  assessing the risk of assets to severe weather impacts and  prioritizing capital spending

6. June 2014 6 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Risk-Based Approach Federal guidance (FTA, FHWA, Volpe) was used to develop a semi-quantitative risk-based approach  Criticality: how important is an asset to the system  Vulnerability: the degree to which an asset is susceptible to and unable to cope with a severe weather impact RISK = CRITICALITY X VULNERABILITY

7. June 2014 7 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Criticality Assessment  Enables focus on the most important assets  Captures institutional knowledge

8. June 2014 8 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Example Criticality Criteria 1 Total Passengers Serviced/Ridership  3 = number of passengers above 10,000 per day  2 = number of passengers between 4,000 and 10,000 per day  1 = number of passengers below 4,000 per day

9. June 2014 9 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Example Criticality Criteria 2 Time to Repair/Replace  3 = Duration is long term – 1 week or more  2 = Duration is medium term – more than 24 hours  1 = Duration is short term – less than 24 hours Parts not manufactured - replace system

10. June 2014 10 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Asset X scores maximum 75/75 Train Stop

11. June 2014 11 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability is a function of:  Exposure  Sensitivity  Adaptive Capacity RISK = CRITICALITY X VULNERABILITY

12. June 2014 12 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Exposure: Nature and degree to which a system is exposed to a severe weather event (FTA, 2011)

13. June 2014 13 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Sensitivity: Extent of damage to the asset or negative effect caused by extreme weather Adaptive Capacity: Ability of the asset to be protected from a severe weather impacts Adaptive Capacity Sensitivity LowModerateHigh Low 134 Moderate 123 High 111

14. June 2014 14 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel ExposureSensitivityAdaptive Capacity Vulnerability Score Flooding/ Storm Surge Y H Extensive damage experienced due to Sandy L Little or no protection in place 4 Vulnerability Score – Asset X FEMA Flood Maps

15. June 2014 15 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Storm Surge/FloodingHeatWindSnow/Ice Asset X30022575150 Vulnerability Score HIGH 4100120140160180200220240260280300 37590105120135150165180195210225 MOD 25060708090100110120130140150 LOW 12530354045505560657075 2530354045505560657075 LOWMODERATEHIGH Criticality Rating High Risk - Evaluate and implement resiliency measures Moderate Risk - Evaluate resiliency measures Low Risk - Watch and evaluate for changes Risk Matrix - Asset X

16. June 2014 16 A Risk-Based Approach to Resiliency in a Post-Sandy Era TRB Resiliency Panel Lessons Learned  Apply a logical risk-based approach to prioritize assets and help decision-makers focus the resiliency investments.  Every transportation system is different – not one size fits all.  It is important to work with personnel with experience to discuss vulnerabilities and asset importance.  All climate predictions, by nature, are uncertain to varying probabilistic degrees.