1. Is a rolling stock programme possible? Roger Ford Industry & Technology Editor: Modern Railways

2. Feast and famine 1064 999

3. A bit of history 1986: Network SouthEast planned to replace Mk1 stock with Networkers at 400 vehicles a year 1990: Recession curbs investment 1992: Privatisation halts train orders 1995: OPRAF decides Mk 1 adequate for first 7 year franchises HMRI does not raise objection

4. Then what happened? 1997: HMRI realises that Hidden recommendations will not be met 1997: HMRI sponsors development of cup & cone anti-overide modification 1998: First live test of cup & cone 1998: HMRI publishes draft regulations 1999: The Railway Safety Regulations (1999) introduced

5. Drop dead date Unmodified Mk 1 Stock banned after 31 December 2002 Mk 1 stock modified to prevent or reduce over-riding could remain in service but illegal after 31 December 2004 Slam doors without central locking also banned from 31 December 2004

6. Big numbers – no gain OperatorMk1 vehicles New vehicles ordered South Eastern496 South Central577612 SWT524 Totals15971632

7. Rolling stock plan 2008 DfT additional vehicles CP4 OperatorEMUDMU c2c40 One188 First Capital connect256 Chiltern 12 South Western105 South Central106 South Eastern110 Total L&SE80512 London Midland6626 Esat Midlands Trains 3 Northern24158 TransPennine Express 42 Total Regional90229 Intercity West Coast106 Greater Western 52 Cross Country 6 Intercity East Coast Total Intercity10658 Combined total1001299

8. Quite simple really New vehicles and cascades in the Rolling Stock Plan (extract) As at February 2008 ClassUnitsformationcarsfromto 32110440LMc2c 32117468LMone (360?)304120NEWone 317 4 oneFCC GN 32110440LMFCC GN 3138324LRCFCC GN 377 (DV converted)254100South CentralFCC TL 46512448South EasternSouth Central EMU254100NEWSouth Central 172428NEWChiltern 45624248South CentralSWT EMU 154NEWSouth Central EMU 110NEWSouth Eastern EMU19357NEWSWT

9. Rolling stock plan 2008 DfT additional vehicles CP4 OperatorEMUDMU c2c40 One188 First Capital connect256 Chiltern 12 South Western105 South Central106 South Eastern110 Total L&SE80512 London Midland6626 Esat Midlands Trains 3 Northern24158 TransPennine Express 42 Total Regional90229 Intercity West Coast106 Greater Western 52 Cross Country 6 Intercity East Coast Total Intercity10658 Combined total1001299

10. What really happened Ordered SouthernCl 377 EMU48 London MidlandCl 350/2 EMU148 London MidlandCl 172 DMU69 ChilternCl 172 DMU8 SouthernCl 377 EMU44 Virgin West CoastCl 390106 National Express East AngliaCl 379 EMU120 Vehicles ordered 543 Outstanding London MidlandCl 35040 Manchester Scotland FranchiseCl 350/2 EMU40 Thameslink 120 Total 743

11. Prospects for 2014-2019 Firm orders Intercity Express Programme (GWML)800/801EMU369HitachiOrdered Intercity Express Programme (ECML)800/801EMU497HitachiOrdered (2) Thameslink EMU1140SiemensOrdered Southern (3)387EMU116Bombardierordered Southern387EMU140Bombardieroption LOROL (4)378EMU57Bombardierordered Orders pending Provisional Crossrail EMU600 Tendering (5) SWT (HLOS build) EMU150 Tendering Known requirements Merseyrail EMU175 Pending OJEU Scotrail (EGIP) (6) EMUup to 400 Pre-emptive OJEUs Great Western EMU120-160 DA Franchise requirement LOROL (7) EMU120 Various Cancelled Intercity West Coast (First) (8) EMU66Alstom/CAFCancelled Intercity West Coast (Virgin) (8) 390EMU126AlstomCancelled Cross Countrye-220DEMU BombardierAbandoned

12. Prospects 2014-2019 DMUs – life extension for PRM-TSI post 2020 and cascade EMUs – existing fleet re-engineering and life extension for PRM-TSI post 2020. EMUs – New build perhaps 1,000 vehicles on top of mega-contracts