1. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model output Jemma Gornall 1, Pete Falloon 1, Kyungsuk Cho 2,, Richard Betts 1, Robin Clark 1 1 Met Office Hadley Centre 2 Korea Meteorological Administration

2. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Outline Climate impacts on UK winter wheat case study The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Methods and UKCP09 climate projections Results Validation Future projections

3. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 DSSAT http://www.icasa.net/dssat/

4. DSSAT CROPGRO plant growth module Grain Legumes - Soybean, peanut, dry bean, chickpea, cowpea, velvet bean, and faba bean Vegetables - Pepper, cabbage, tomato Grasses – Bahia, brachiaria CERES Plant Growth Module Grain Cereals -Rice, maize, millet, sorghum, wheat, and barley SUBSTOR Plant Growth Module Potato

5. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 DSSAT Minimum Inputs : Daily weather (max. & min. temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation) Soil (albedo, water coefficients, N & P contents, evaporation, root growth factor) Crop genetic inputs (coefficients related to photoperiod sensitivity, duration of grain filling rates and vernalization requirements) Management options (planting date and seed density)

6. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Climate impacts on UK winter wheat – using DSSAT/CERES CERES-Wheat (Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis- Wheat) Dynamic process-based crop model, widely validated Used for site and regional climate impact studies. Temperature - key role in vegetative growth and development Environmental factors (water, nutrient stress) linked to plant growth and development. Daily biomass production calculated using solar radiation Can simulate physiological effects of increased CO 2

7. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Approach for regional crop modelling. Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients available from DSSAT Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data

8. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Validation (Rothamsted Broadbalk, 1999-2009) Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted)

9. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Approach for regional crop modelling. Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients available from DSSAT Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data UKCP climate projections (daily min/max temp., precip, solar radiation) 13 administrative regions, 11 member raw RCM data (SRES A1B) 30 year time slices (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) Assess uncertainties in future climate impacts using RCM ensemble

10. Current UK winter wheat distribution

11. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks & Humber. Precipitation (%) Max. temperature (ºC) Min. temperature (ºC) UKCP09 Climate Projections Change in 30 y average (2070-2099), from baseline (1971-2000)

12. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Future projections Development rate Heading date (average date by which a crop has formed seedheads) Physiological maturity (date of max. kernel dry weight = readiness for harvest) Yields

13. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Heading date (days after planting) Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000) Sowing date 10th October N application 200kg ha -1 yr -1 Box: 25 th & 75th percentile Crosses: maximum/minimum Plus: median Diamond: unperturbed simulation Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted) NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks & Humber. + x Faster development, impact increases with time Largest impact further north

14. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Physiological maturity (days after planting) Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000) Sowing date 10th October N application 200kg ha -1 yr -1 Box: 25 th & 75th percentile Crosses: maximum/minimum Plus: median Diamond: unperturbed simulation Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted) NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks & Humber. + x Largest impact further north

15. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Yield (%) Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000) Sowing date 10th October N application 200kg ha -1 yr -1 Box: 25 th & 75th percentile Crosses: maximum/minimum Plus: median Diamond: unperturbed simulation Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted) NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks & Humber. + x Uncertainty increases with time Gains in northLosses in south

16. © Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Conclusions to UK wheat study In all regions, temperature increases accelerated wheat development Positive impact on yield, particularly further north; some decreases in the South Uncertainties in yield production increase with time (climate driven) CO 2 fertilisation may compensate yield losses due to temperature and rainfall UK production: losses in some regions may be compensated by gains elsewhere

17. Summary Use of regional model ensembles can provide useful information to climate impacts studies of crops The DSSAT software is a good framework for these assessments If generic parameterisation is used some level of validation should take place and results should be interpreted accordingly.