1. www.lcra.org Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA

2. www.lcra.org

3. Rainfall Since October 1st

4. www.lcra.org Rainfall Since October 1st Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77

5. www.lcra.org Rainfall Departure From Normal Since Oct.1

6. www.lcra.org Rainfall So Far in June

7. www.lcra.org While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain

8. www.lcra.org One of the Worst Droughts on Record 3 rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956.3 rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956. October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record. Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.

9. www.lcra.org Soil Moisture Anomaly

10. www.lcra.org An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer

11. www.lcra.org Latest Drought Monitor

12. www.lcra.org Latest Drought Monitor

13. www.lcra.org Comparison with Worst of 2009 Drought September 1, 2009

14. www.lcra.org La Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral. June 13th

15. www.lcra.org Trending Back to La Nia? Trending Back to La Niña? El Nino La Nina

16. www.lcra.org NWS July through September Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation

17. www.lcra.org Drought Outlook through September

18. www.lcra.org WetDry

19. www.lcra.org Composite Precipitation June through August

20. www.lcra.org Composite Precipitation September through October

21. www.lcra.org NAEFS Forecast through July 1st Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain

22. www.lcra.org Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

23. www.lcra.org Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

24. www.lcra.org National Hurricane Center Outlook

25. www.lcra.org Colorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook “We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June, 1st Update 16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6) 9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9) 5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)

26. www.lcra.org Years with Similar Conditions 1971, 2008

27. www.lcra.org 1971

28. 2008

29. 2011 Hurricane Season Names

30. www.lcra.org Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org 512-473-3350 Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org 512-473-3350