1. Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist

2. Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)

3. Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas

5. 2011 Texas Weather Statistics 14.88 inches. Driest calendar year on record! Previous record was 14.99 inches in 1917. Average Temperature 67.2 degrees. Second hottest year on record. Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in 1921.

6. 2011 Weather Records Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Victoria had their driest years on record. Austin, College Station, Midland, San Angelo and Brownsville had their hottest years on record

7. Rainfall Since Oct. 1st

8. Departure from Normal Since 10/1

9. Unusual December Jet Stream Pattern

10. Current Jet Stream

11. Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña

14. October 4, 2011 Drought Monitor Comparison

15. Now In the Second Year of La Niña January 6, 2011 January 23, 2012

16. La Nina

17. WetDry

18. Temperature Precipitation

19. NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook

20. Drought Outlook through April

21. Rain Needed to End the Drought in 3 Months

22. Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months

23. The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

24. Colorado State Tropical Storm Outlook for 2012 THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance. (14-17 Storms) THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)

25. Take Home Points No clear end in sight to the ongoing drought; it could last well into 2012. Conditions could easily get worse before seeing any improvement. Scattered rains will continue winter into early spring but not heavy enough to significantly change the drought. Intense droughts are hard to break. Some models trending toward El Nino this fall.

26. Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org512-473-3350