1. 1 Census Data and Montana Indian Reservations Pam Harris Bureau Chief Census and Economic Information Center Montana Department of Commerce

2. 2 CEIC – Who We Are Partnership with U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis to disseminate Montana data collected by federal agencies Cvs.C staff provide demographic and economic data and analysis, GIS support, technical assistance and training. Assist Montana businesses, communities schools, and all government agencies to access and use this information for decision-making.

3. 3 Why Census Data? Census data is unique Only source for small area data (reservation, cities/towns, tribal census tracts, etc.) Only source which shows characteristics for the population such as age, race, gender, educational attainment, income, labor force, types of households, etc. Census results are used to distribute almost $200 billion annually in federal, state, local, and tribal funds

4. 4 Examples of American Indian Federal Programs Relying on Census Data Workforce Investment Program Community Development Block Grants (CDBG) Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Low Income Energy Assistance

5. 5 How can data help? Census data helps tribal planners evaluate conditions on their reservations and in their communities. Tribal governments, states, cities, federal agencies, and businesses all need current information to make critical decisions. Data can help decide what services are needed and how to distribute funding for housing, economic development, health care, and other programs that benefit veterans, children, families, the elderly and the society as a whole. Census data is an important tool for tribal government decision- making and could result in improved utility services, new housing, job training, better school facilities, or a new health clinic to benefit you, your family, your community or reservation.

6. 6 More current data coming.. American Community Survey (ACS) will replace the decennial census long form questionnaire producing the socio-economic data every year instead of every 10 years. Example – Workforce Investment Act of 1998 requires information about American Indian and Alaska Native households to support training and employment activities. ACS will provide this critically important information. ACS has been endorsed by the Indian and Native American Employment and Training Coalition and the National Congress of American Indians. Flathead and Lake Counties have been a successful part of the early ACS testing for the last six years.

7. 7 Census 2010 Pilot project in South Dakota, Cheyenne River Reservation An accurate and complete count of the population in 2010 will enable American Indians to receive the correct share of federal and state resources that are based on census data Pilot project is testing new counting methods; setting standard for how the Census Bureau counts American Indians all over the U.S. American Indians have been undercounted in previous censuses, and the mutual goal of the Census Bureau and the American Indian community is to reverse that trend in 2010.

8. 8 Montana Reservations Accurate Data Federal Statistical Agencies Statistics Grant Writers Planners Social Service Agencies Economic Developers $ for Montana Reservations

9. 9 Summary Federal monies are getting harder to obtain. Data users need to be smarter about using the information available to help secure essential funding for tribal programs. Without accurate, reliable, and current information, detailed analysis of Indian Reservations’ Economies’ will be more difficult. Need to work together, take ownership of the data, to ensure that the American Community Survey and the 2010 Census are the best they can be, which will ultimately benefit everyone.

10. 10 Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies Susan Ockert Senior Research Economist, Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce

11. 11 Sanders Flathead Lake Missoula Glacier Pondera HillBlaine Phillips Valley Roosevelt Sheridan Daniels Big Horn Rosebud Yellowstone Chouteau BLACKFEET Population10,100 Unemployment22.6% Per Capita Income$9,751 Poverty30.0% Median Age26.5 BA+13.5% % American Indian84.2% FLATHEAD Population26,172 Unemployment7.9% Per Capita Income$14,503 Poverty15.8% Median Age37.4 BA+20.8% % American Indian26.7% ROCKY BOY’S Population2,676 Unemployment28.4% Per Capita Income$7,326 Poverty38.0% Median Age20.5 BA+11.8% % American Indian96.3% FORT BELKNAP Population2,959 Unemployment23% Per Capita Income$8,150 Poverty36.5% Median Age23.5 BA+12.5% % American Indian94.3% FORT PECK Population10,321 Unemployment17.5% Per Capita Income$10,691 Poverty30.1% Median Age30.2 BA+14.6% % American Indian61.9% NORTHERN CHEYENNE Population4,470 Unemployment19.5% Per Capita Income$7,736 Poverty39.3% Median Age22.7 BA+13.5% % American Indian90.1% CROW Population6,894 Unemployment17.1% Per Capita Income$9,440 Poverty26.6% Median Age27.6 BA+13.8% % American Indian74.9% SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, CENSUS 2000 2000 Census Data

12. 12 ReservationTotal American Indian TribeNumber Blackfeet10,1108,146Blackfeet alone7,441 Crow6,8945,132Crow alone4.556 Flathead26,1726,339Salish alone Kootenai alone Salish and Kootenai 1,842 308 2,348 Fort Belknap2,9592,764Assiniboine alone Gros Ventres alone 1,068 1,276 Fort Peck10,3216,116Assiniboine alone Assiniboine Sioux alone Sioux alone 1,107 781 3,406 Northern Cheyenne4,4703,835Northern Cheyenne alone2,982 Rocky Boy’s2,6762,446Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone2130 Population by American Indian and by Tribe: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

13. 13 ItemNumberPercent TOTAL56,068100% Urban23,34741.6% Metropolitan*9,53717% Rural32,72158.4% Not in a Place**14,28325.5% *Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula **Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that are identifiable by name but have no legal authority. American Indian Population: Urban vs. Rural Urban = 1,000 people per square mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

14. 14 What is an ‘economy’? Businesses Consumers Government Create Wealth Redistribute Wealth Jobs  Income Marketing Customer Service Accounting Management Public GoodsPublic Goods Zoning/Land Use Public Finance Public Safety Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base, ” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu

15. 15 Current Reservation Environment Population Faster growth rate Younger median ageEducation Fewer with degrees Higher drop out rateSocial Larger percent of population uses food stamps Higher pregnancy rate Higher alcohol treatment need Sources: See last page

16. 16 Current Reservation Economies Higher unemployment More poverty Lower per capita income Lower wages Lower housing values Smaller private sector Sources: See last page

17. 17 Types of Jobs 33% of jobs on the reservation are Government compared with 15% of jobs in the country as a whole 44% of jobs on the reservation are in the Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs in the nation Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006

18. 18 Item19972002 Number of businesses – MT93,677100,421 Number of Businesses – AI1,9121,990 Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002)9% Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002)4% Population – MT878,706910,670 Population – AI54,72657,841 Firms/1,000 citizens – MT107110 Firms/1,000 Indians – AI3534 Firms with employees – MT25,97428,258 Firms with employees – AI438357 % of firms with employees/total firms - MT28% % of firms with employees/total firms – AI23%18% Sales per business – MT ($1,000)$402,321$445,543 Sales per business – AI ($1,000)$86,436$107,830 Business Environment Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners” NOTE: AI = American Indian

19. 19 Threshold Analysis Central Place Theory - Population needed to support retail and service businesses Simple Analysis: population and number of businesses Similar characteristics such as population & location Does not take into account economies of scale Square footage Number of doctors in one facility Grocery store Health care Financial Institutions

20. 20 Grocery Stores LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation4,48046 Browning12 Wolf Point12 Ronan22 Just off Reservation2,92355 Trade Center3,2871012 Metropolitan2,8537585 Statewide2,725337 On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725

21. 21 Health Care: Doctors and Clinics LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation 1,3781335 Browning 213 Wolf Point 310 Ronan 812 Just off Reservation 8121829 Trade Center 5875664 Metropolitan 300808476 Statewide 5091,804 # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509 On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

22. 22 Financial Institutions LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation 3,584514 Browning 15 Wolf Point 24 Ronan 25 Just off Reservation 1,0441412 Trade Center 1,1742827 Metropolitan 780311197 Statewide 1,227748 # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227 On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

23. 23 Implications Reservations are underserved in these private sectors Just Off the Reservation serving own population and reservation Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much larger region

24. 24 Location Quotient Determine if number of jobs are what a local economy should have to serve local needs Comparison of local employment to statewide for each industry 1 = serving more than local MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

25. 25 Fort Peck Reservation IndustryLQComment Grocery Stores1.2Slightly serving more than local Financial Institutions 0.4Underserved Health Care0.2Very underserved IndustryLQComment Executive Government10.9Most over served of all Human Resource Programs 7.22 nd over served Specialty Trade.13Underserved Professional Services.16Underserved

26. 26 Blackfeet Reservation IndustryLQComment Grocery Stores0.03Very under served Financial InstitutionNDNon-disclosable – one establishment Health CareNDNon-disclosable – one establishment IndustryLQComment Human Resource Programs16.6Most over served of all Executive Government14.92 nd over served Food Services.03Under served Support for mining.007Under served

27. 27 Comparisons EntityGrocery StoresHealth CareFinancial Institutions Fort Peck1.20.20.4 Blackfeet0.03ND Statewide1.041.0 State – Most over served: Mining except Oil & Gas at 5.7 – Most under served: Textile Mills at.06

28. 28 Implications Money is leaving the reservations to purchase retail goods and consumer services There is not an adequate supply of financial services on the reservations There is not an adequate supply of doctors, clinics, etc. on the reservations

29. 29 Diversity of Economy Hachman Index measures diversity of economy – employment spread out among many different industries compared to benchmark Montana or United States More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability to economic downturns Closer to 1 mean more diversity MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

30. 30 Hachman Index Fort Peck Reservation=.24 Blackfeet Reservation =.14 County Hachman Indices Lowest(Stillwater)=.01 Median =.25 (McCone, Phillips, Toole) Highest=.66 (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)

31. 31 Implications Reservation and county economies are not diverse ‘One company’ towns

32. 32 Vibrancy of Economy Town Zip Code Population # of Retail Est Pop/Est # of Govt entities* Pop/GovtZip Code Browning6,68914478818359417 Cut Bank5,220271932719359427 Wolf Point5,027311623514459201 Scobey1,498141071113659263 Lame Deer2,9086485743959043 Hardin4,726291631531559034 Crow Agency2,2908286593959022 Box Elder2,90121,4502511659521 Harlem2,565122141913559526 Hays1,0923364521859527 Pablo632415887959855 Ronan6,202401552031059864 Helena47,15427717013335559601,2,4,20,23, 24,25,26 Montana926,8655,1451802,309401 *Reference USA 921: Executive, Legislative and Other government support. Excludes Law enforcement, public health Sources: Reference USA, www.referenceusa.com, U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2002 and 2003 NOTE: Red is off the reservation

33. 33 Productivity – Measure of Efficiency Average Output per Worker (IMPLAN) AreaOutput/worker Montana$86,309 Blackfeet$75,398 Crow$76,531 Flathead$82,532 Fort Belknap$56,367 Fort Peck$69,559 Northern Cheyenne$60,559 Rocky Boys$67,638 Glacier$71,790 Toole$77,466 Yellowstone$116,707 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com AreaOutput/worker Lewis & Clark$82,675 Cascade$83,367 Missoula$82,749 Gallatin$80,178 Flathead$85,341 Hill$69,383 Garfield$82,941 Richland$85,986 Rosebud$100,944 Blaine$59,319 Beaverhead$80,303

34. 34 Compensation per Worker Average Salary per Worker (IMPLAN) AreaOutput/worker Montana$24,680 Blackfeet$20,894 Crow$21,697 Flathead$24,197 Fort Belknap$16,089 Fort Peck$17,129 Northern Cheyenne$27,005 Rocky Boys$21,908 Glacier$26,409 Toole$22,866 Yellowstone$28,867 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com AreaOutput/worker Lewis & Clark$30,370 Cascade$28,048 Missoula$25,324 Gallatin$23,500 Flathead$23,225 Hill$23,711 Garfield$10,775 Richland$21,350 Rosebud$35,437 Blaine$19,141 Beaverhead$21,834

35. 35 Reservation Natural Resources ResourceTotal Timber Sales (2005) $ 4,242,299 Coal Royalties (2000) $ 3,402,663 Gas Royalties (2000)$ 610,000 Oil Royalties (2000) $ 2,550,800 Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations 13% of all acres of coal 12% of all oil and gas leases 5% of all coal royalties/revenues 5% of oil royalties/revenues

36. 36 Agriculture on the Reservation ItemTotal Non Native American Native American % of Total Farms2,5521,82572729% Average Size (acres)3,1162,1795,196167% Market Value of Products$221,182,000$162,150,000$59,032,00027% Farm Expenses*$183,549,000$150,709,000$32,841,00018% Internet Access1,4061,04835826% % of Farms with Internet55%57%49%N/A Market Value per Acre$52,116$59,636$11,36122% Expense per Acre$43,249$55,428$6,32015% Net Income per Acre $8,867$4,208$5,04157% * Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp

37. 37 Summary With legal and policy foundation and data collection: Reservations have potential to expand private business sectors Reservations have natural resources, especially for energy generation, to use as economic engines American Indian farmers appear to have comparative advantage in farming

38. 38 Contact Information Susan Ockert Senior Research Economist (406) 821-2740 sockert@mt.gov www.ceic.mt.gov PowerPoint presentation available on CEIC’s web site at www.ceic.mt.gov/presentations.asp and MEDA’s web site at www.medamembers.org/memdir.phpwww.ceic.mt.gov/presentations.aspwww.medamembers.org/memdir.php

39. 39 NOTES: BA+: Bachelor’s and Advanced Degrees Pregnancy Rate: Pregnancies per 1,000 teens, aged 15-19 Alcohol Treatment Need: Index that includes alcohol mortality and alcohol-defined arrest rates SOURCES: Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005 Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day Report 2005 Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003 Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002 Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 % Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005 Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000, November 2002 Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001 Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2003-04 School Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF) – Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservationsbytribe.xls Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1. www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_rural_indian.xls