1. ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview, Brussels, 25 Sept. 2013 New Outlook on seismic faults: From EARthquake nucleation to arrest (acronym: NOFEAR) Giulio Di Toro Principal Investigator: Hosting Institution: Padua University Italy 1222

2. ERC StG project USEMS (2008-2013): Study of physico-chemical processes during the seismic cycle. USEMS showed “…outstanding publication record…recommended for follow up actions” (ERC scientific panel evaluation). Two promotional videos for ERC. ISI Web of Knowledge 1023 citations 17 HI Activities related to Associate Prof. in Structural Geology at Padua University, Italy 58 peer-reviewed papers 4 Nature & Science papers as 1 st author 2008 EGU Arne Richter Award in Geophysics 2010 Accademia dei Lincei Award in Geology 2013 Member of the Academy of Europe Tutored 25 Post-Doc, PhD, MS & BS: 5 won International Awards. Citations in Each Year

3. Outline of the NOFEAR project 1. Motivation 2. Methodology 3. Anticipated results

4. Earthquakes (EQs, red) and landslides (blue) threaten our continent. http://www.seismo. ethz.ch/hazard/risk /flyers/Mediterrane an.html 1.Motivation

5. Friction, fracture and geometry are the keys to understand the physics of EQs (and landslides*). Destructive EQs nucleate at 7-25 km depth so are investigated remotely via seismology. * addressed in NOFEAR, not in this interview because of time limitations.

6. This “indirect” approach (seismograms, GPS, etc.) allows limited understanding of EQ physics. Earthquake forecasting models (probability that a mainshock may occur in terms of hypocentre location, magnitude and time) call for a sound physical basis. BUT

7. The “direct” approach of NOFEAR unifies and theoretical studies to enhance our knowledge of earthquake physics, from rupture nucleation to arrest. NOFEAR main by-product will be the systematic investigation of EQ (and landslides) precursors (seismic, physical, chemical and electromagnetic). Field = fault geometry Lab = friction and rupture laws 200 m 2 cm

8. To achieve these goals, NOFEAR exploits the most powerful and versatile EQ simulator installed worldwide: SHIVA = Slow to High Velocity Apparatus... Di Toro et al., Rend. Lin., 2010; Niemeijer et al., JGR 2011; Violay et al., EPSL 2013; Smith et al., Geology, 2013: Fondriest et al., Geology, 2013… 1 m

9. …and the expertise of the Team I built thanks to USEMS, plus the resources at the Geosciences Dept.* in Padua and at INGV* in Rome. *Best Italian Earth Sciences Academic & Research Centers according to the 2013 evaluation of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research. Geosciences Dept. INGV USEMS research team in 2010

10. 2. Methodology a) Experiments to determine friction and rupture laws… Di Toro et al, Nature, 2004; 2011; Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Nielsen et al., GJI, 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm… ROCK ANALOGUE RUPTURE EXPERIMENTS: UNIAXIAL PRESS REAL ROCKS FRICTION EXPERIMENTS: SHIVA FRICTION LAW 20 mm 20 cm

11. and to investigate precursory events (AEs, physical, chemical, etc.) to main frictional instabilities (EQ nucleation). Slip (m) Di Toro et al., 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm.; Scarlato et al., 2013; Tisato & Quintal, GJI, 2013 PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE Shear stress (MPa) 50 mm Experimental fault Acoustic emissions, gas emission, attenuation and elastic moduli, etc. Slip rate (mm/s)

12. b) Field studies to quantify the geometry of natural faults (natural faults are not as small and smooth as experimental faults). Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Bistacchi et al., PAGEOPH, 2011; Fondriest et al., JSG, 2012; Smith et al., Tectonophysics, 2013 Generation of synthetic fault surfaces to use in EQ modeling REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) REMOTE SENSING (LIDAR) 200 m SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE

13. 100 m Wavy fault surface from field studies Di Toro et al., Nature 2005; Griffith et al., JGR 2010; Marzocchi et al., JGR, 2009 c) Numerical models calibrated by field, experimental and theoretical data to produce physically-based EQ simulations (& use in EQ probabilistic forecasting studies). Synthetic seismograms from modeling FERMI Friction law from exp.

14. FRICTION & PRECURSORS: SHIVA EARTHQUAKE SIMULATIONS 3D VIRTUAL OUTCROP MODELING: EQ SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS: FRICTION & RUPTURE 500 m PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE FRICTION AND PRECURSORY SLIP FIELD: FAULT GEOMETRY ACOUSTIC EMIS. REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) FIELD SURVEY &STEREOPHOTOS SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS FERMI SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE RUPT. DYNA MICS EXP. MODELS RUPTURE: UNIAXIAL PRESS

15. 3. Anticipated results of NOFEAR the physics of earthquakes (and landslides). seismic, chemical, physical and electromagnetic EQ main shock precursors. Technological Development of modules to measure physical and chemical properties of materials over a wide range of temperatures and deformation conditions. Scientific Understanding of:

16. 17 researchers coordinated by the PI: 3 Post-docs, one PhD and 13 scholars. A similar number of Team Members was involved in the previous ERC StG project USEMS: a) Experiments: SHIVA + rupture experiments Giovanni Romeo, Fabio Di Felice, Piergiorgio Scarlato, Adriano Nardi (INGV, Rome), Stefan Nielsen (Durham Univ., UK) + 1 Post-doc (= Elena Spagnuolo), 1 Ph.D. (Padua University) and Alexandre Schubnel (ENS, Paris), Nicola Tisato (ETH, Zurich). b) Field studies: Andrea Bistacchi (Milano Bicocca Univ. I) Steven Smith, (Otago Univ., NZL), Matteo Massironi + 1 Post-Doc (Padua Univ.). c) Numerical Models: Warner Marzocchi (INGV, Rome), Manuele Faccenda (Padua Univ.), 1 Post- doc (Padua Univ.) and Ioan Ionescu (Université Paris). Team Members of the NOFEAR project

17. Cost CategoryMonth 1-18Month 19-36Month 37-54Month 55-60 Total (M1-60) Padua University Direct Costs: Personnel: PI 66000 22000220000 Senior Staff10000 500035000 Post docs5000090000 30000260000 Students (PhD) 16000240001000050000 Other 0 Total Personnel:12600018200019000067000565000 Other Direct Costs: Equipment (cameras, etc.)5000 20000 Consumables (analysis)600010000 250028500 Travel (and field work)30000 15000105000 Publications, etc7000 28000 Other + visitors3000 12000 Total Other Direct Costs:5100055000 32500193500 Total Direct Costs:17700023700024500099500758500 Indirect Costs (overheads): Max 20% of Direct Costs35400474004900019900151700 Subcontracting Costs: (No overheads)5000 20000 NOFEAR: budget Padua University

18. Cost CategoryMonth 1-18Month 19-36Month 37-54Month 55-60 Total (M1-60) INGV Rome Direct Costs: Personnel: PI 0 Senior Staff30000 10000100000 Post docs75000 25000250000 Students00000 Other 0 Total Personnel:105000 35000350000 Other Direct Costs: Equipment (drone, Aes, etc.)9000035000 10000170000 Consumables (SHIVA, etc.)40000 15000135000 Travels2000030000 1500095000 Publications, etc2000 8000 Other + visitors5000 20000 Total Other Direct Costs:157000112000 47000428000 Total Direct Costs:262000217000 82000778000 Indirect Costs (overheads): Max 20% of Direct Costs5240043400 16400155600 Subcontracting Costs: (Furnace,physical properites module, etc.) 4000035000200005000100000 Total Costs of project: Padua Univ (by reporting period and total) 217400289400299000124400930200 Total Costs of project: INGV by reporting period and total) 3544002954002804001034001033600 Total costs of project UNIPD + INGV (by reporting period and total) 5718005848005794002278001963800 NOFEAR: budget INGV & total