1. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 1 Greenhouse gases – What we do well and what we need to do better James H. Butler with Pieter Tans, Colm Sweeney, Arlyn Andrews, John B. Miller NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory 31 March 2011

2. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 2 Outline Why should we be interested in CO 2 ? Monitoring CO 2 & other greenhouse gases today (What we do now) What we get from surface and air-based measurements What we need

3. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Why should we be interested in CO 2 ?

4. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Two questions, two goals Question: How successful are human efforts to reduce GHG emissions?  Goal: validate regional GHG management strategies Question: How will Earth’s system respond to climate change?  Goal: understand climate- change feedbacks.

5. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 5 Monitoring greenhouse gases today

6. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 6 NOAA Global GHG Measurement Network

7. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 7 Surface-based Networks CarboEurope WMO Global Atmospheric Watch FluxNet TCCON NOAA AGAGE

8. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 0.1 ppm EC-NOAA Flask Inter- Comparison Project

9. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011

10. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 $25M, 5 year investment to install & operate 100 advanced GHG systems ~50 in U.S., ~25 in Europe, ~25 around remaining continents Measure CO2 (carbon dioxide) & CH4 (methane) Earth Networks – Emerging

11. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 What we get from surface and air-based measurements

12. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Global Trends are Good to Go

13. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Latitudinal Distributions are Consistent

14. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 14 CDPW, Raleigh, NC 4 October 2010 JH Butler, NOAA /ESRL Global Monitoring Division

15. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 FireModule CarbonTracker Observations Biosphere Module Fossil Fuel Module Ensemble Kalman Filter Ocean Module TM5 2-way nested transport

16. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 “Regional” flux estimates are emerging But uncertainties remain high

17. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 17 Unique Features from Surface and Air-based Measurements

18. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 18 Tall Tower Measurements 1000-1500 ft high “Continuous” sampling at 3-6 levels Additional flask samples for ~50 tracers

19. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 19 Intake: 11m 30m 76m 122m 244m 396m Quantitative signatures of biological CO 2 uptake and release LEF: July 2007 Large diurnal cycle at lowest levels results from combination of nighttime respiration and shallow boundary layers. Park Falls, WI, July

20. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 20 AirCore profile AirCore mean AIRS retrieval OCO retrieval FTS retrieval In-situ Measurements Help Understand Remote Signals

21. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 21 Validation (Independent Vertical Measurements)

22. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 22 F-134aBenzeneCH 3 Br CH 3 Cl COS CO C 2 Cl 4 CHCl 3 CH 3 I CHBr 3 F-22 Western Canada (ESP) 3 Aug 2005 Sampling Altitude (above sea level, km) Biomass Burning? Ocean Emission… CO 2 Source: Steve Montzka

23. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 23 Eastern USA (NHA) Nov 2005 Black = industrial gases Urban influence is clear—continued emissions of CH 3 CCl 3 CO F-134a C 2 Cl 4 COSCH 3 Cl CH 3 CCl 3 CH 3 Br Sampling Altitude (above sea level, km) CO 2 SF 6 Source: Steve Montzka

24. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 24 Separating Fossil Fuel from Biosphere Contributions

25. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 25 What Do We Still Need? More robust and frequent surface maps  Terrestrial (Vegetation, Soils, Fires)  Ocean (Sal, Temp, Winds) Better global coverage of CO 2 and other GHG mixing ratios  Areas without surface or in situ access  “Hot spots” of emissions  Improved sensing skill from satellites Improved and more frequently updated emission inventories Improved assimilation and ensemble inverse models Higher resolution atmospheric transport in global models

26. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 26 Questions? “Carbon Weather” January (net CO 2 emission) July (net CO 2 uptake) Long-term Observations CarbonTracker™

27. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 27 Backup Slides

28. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 28 For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty... More Observations (x 10?)  Atmosphere  Ocean  Terrestrial  Satellites  Improved Instrumentation Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints  Transport (÷ 10?)  Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis  Prediction Enhanced Computing Capacity QA/QC, Data Management

29. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 29 Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange Oceanic Measurements Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes Emission Inventories Deep Ocean Surface Based Satellite Aircraft Satellite Mapping Data Integration Products CO 2 and Other GHGs

30. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 30 Putting CO 2 Emissions in Perspective

31. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 31 NOAA GHG Measurement Network North America

32. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 32 Current Tall Towers Current Aircraft Potential Future Tower & Aircraft Local Networks? Maximizing the use of local and regional networks

33. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 33 The Long-lived Greenhouse Gases A 26% increase in “warming potential” since 1990 is mostly due to CO 2 Gases other than CO 2 are involved, some significantly 2008 AGGI = 1.26

34. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 34 Aircraft Deployment Picarro Flasks AirCore Picarro Flasks pressure at which the flask was sampled. CO 2 (ppm) -0.07 ± 0.3 CH 4 (ppb) -0.2 ± 2.9 Mean offset

35. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 35 How to provide the best regional information? May 16, 2005May 17, 2005 May 18, 2005 (Carbontracker.noaa.gov)

36. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 36 Validation (Independent Vertical Measurements)

37. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 37 NOAA Leadership and Approach NOAA’s capabilities represent an end-to-end approach to CO 2 and other greenhouse gas monitoring, yielding long-term, operational products. NOAA’s capabilities span a range of activities relevant to climate science, including observations, analysis, modeling, prediction, and assessment. NOAA leads the development of global observational networks and numerous field programs for GHGs, and works closely with partnering agencies, institutes, and universities across the nation and around the world to sustain and improve its operations. NOAA has the experience and capability in developing research systems, expanding them, and transitioning them into operations and products (e.g., weather modeling, climate reference network)

38. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 38 Toward an Interagency Global Greenhouse Gas Information System → An operational system to support CO 2 and other GHG management strategies at policy relevant scales: Validate CO 2 emissions reductions and offsets Provide information on sources and sinks Integrate existing and new assets from the US and International community Key Attributes  Driven by policy needs  Develops actionable products  Provides global coverage  Transparent & objective  Sustained & scalable 38

39. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 39 Carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases CO 2 contributes about 2/3 of the total radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases today CO 2 is responsible for ~90% of the increase in radiative forcing each year CO 2 increases only 0.5% each year (2 ppm out of ~400) CO 2 near Earth’s land surface changes up to 20% each day due to the biosphere alone CO 2 in the atmosphere changes about 5% seasonally, also the biosphere CO 2 sources are different everywhere The ocean and land biosphere take up almost ½ of the CO 2 emitted into the atmosphere Increases in methane and nitrous oxide sources are widespread, diverse, difficult to detect, and also caused by humans

40. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 40 Kinds of “in situ” Monitoring Surface flasks – high accuracy, > 50 gases per flask, weekly samples repeated from same remote locations Aircraft flask packages – weekly vertical profiles, high accuracy, > 30 gases per flask Tall towers – hourly to continuous accurate measurements at several levels (3-5 gases), accompanied by weekly flask packages (30+ gases) Emerging approaches − AirCore ® for complete, accurate vertical profiles, new lasers for stable field measurements, infrared approaches for remote sensing Eddy flux towers – short towers measure land-surface fluxes locally (1-3 gases)

41. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 41 2:00 AM LST2:00 PM LST Vertical Profile of CO 2 at LEF: July Daily variability of CO 2 is large Park Falls, WI, July

42. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 42 tropopause ground Atmospheric Vertical Profiles

43. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 43 Globalview, (annual) Data sets & Visual displays (variable) Interactive Data Visualization (daily) Greenhouse Gas Index (annual) CarbonTracker (annual) Global trends (monthly) DATA Products Services

44. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Page 44 Summary A comprehensive GHG information system is needed to inform policy and strategies of GHG emissions. Such a system includes increased observations, higher resolution modeling, and ensemble analysis. Observations include in situ and remotely sensed data. Surface and airborne measurements are useful, and in some cases essential, to  Provide reliable, accurate global trends and distributions  Understand trends in biospheric contributions  Improve inventories, especially of gases with biospheric interactions  Interpret and understand satellite retrievals  Separate biospheric from fossil fuel contributions  Attribute emissions reductions to sectors of the economy  Improve transport modeling

45. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Source: Ken Masarie SENSITIVITY TO MEASUREMENT BIAS OF REGIONAL SOURCE/SINK ESTIMATES

46. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index Provides a robust measure of the long- term influence of GHG emissions on climate Global Index Intended audience is educators, policy- makers, public

47. GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle Hyperspectral Workshop JH Butler, NOAA 31 March 2011 Climate Change (IPCC 2007)  Global warming is unequivocal.  Human-emitted GHGs are causing it.  CO 2 is the most important of these GHGs Ocean acidification is caused by increasing CO 2 in the atmosphere,  Independent of of climate change  Potentially harsh consequences for marine ecosystems. Two Global Environmental Problems