1. Jonathan Malloy Carleton University

2. “I will have to have a new slogan: ‘Bland works.’” Bill Davis, 1980

3. “The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.” Dalton McGuinty, 2011

4.  How has Ontario politics changed in the last 30 years? Rotation of governing parties Economic change Shifts in Canadian federalism Increasing population diversity  Examined through prism of political culture/political values  Sets the stage for examination of 2011 election

5.  Wilson (1980): The “Red Tory” province Ascriptive, elitist, hierarchical, stable, cautious and restrained  Noel (1997) the imperative pursuit of economic success assumption of pre-eminence in the Canadian federation requirement of managerial efficiency in government expectation of reciprocity in political relationships the balancing of interests

6.  Loyalty  Pragmatism (“managing prosperity”)  Identification with Canada

7.  Wilson (1997) “It does appear to be the same old Ontario.”

8. 1985  Poor leadership transition (rural, older image)  PC division over separate school funding 1990  Voter alienation and discontent (Meech, economy)  Unpopularity of federal PCs  General pragmatic streak in Peterson majority and Rae govts  Changes can be explained by timing and windows of opportunity, rather than underlying value shifts  Loyalty and pragmatism remain; identication with Canada?

9.  1995 PC victory unexpected  Tone of radical policy change  Polarization of Ontario politics; building on Rae years  Harris: Idealogue or opportunist?  Erratic Ernie Eves

10.  Political change and polarization  Economic restructuring  Federal-provincial disputes  Growing racial and cultural diversity  Loyalty?  Pragmatism?  Identification with Canada?

11.  Image of bland sincerity  Platform of stability  Pragmatic leadership and policies pursuit of economic success assumption of Canadian pre- eminence managerial efficiency reciprocity in political relationships balancing of interests  Reinforced in 2007 election PC platform offered limited contrast School funding: retro issue with new twist John Tory: similar personal image to McGuinty

12.  Ontario politics again about “managing prosperity” and balancing interests  But increasing assertiveness within Canada “Interest in things Ontarian” (Wiseman 2007) Mowat Centre Fiscal imbalance issues Popular, or just policy?

13.  Minority bargaining  Drummond Report  Cuts and polarization  Continuing management problems (Ornge)  Loyalty?  Pragmatism?  Identification with Canada?

14.  Economic downturn Decline of manufacturing  Management problems E-health Ecotax Energy mega-projects  PC lead in polls  But…

15.  PC disconnect between “tax man” attacks and promises of continued/ increased spending  NDP Horwarth platform with pseudo-populist approach  Liberals relied on their stable policy approach

16. “The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.”  All parties lacked serious plans for new economic and fiscal challenges  Campaign and election results suggest pragmatic leadership remains key  Bland worked (mostly)

17.  Minority bargaining  Drummond Report  Cuts and polarization  Continuing management problems (Ornge)  Loyalty?  Pragmatism?  Identification with Canada?