8. Meteorological stations within the system

9. Annual precipitation sum

10. Long time series of annual precipitation sum in SE of Hungary

11. Tendency of the PDSI on the South part of Hungary

12. Apple model (early ripen)

13. Apple model (late ripen)

14. Model of stone fruits

15. Root depth and available water (1)

16. Root depth and available water (2)

17. Influence of cultivation and irrigation method

18. Address //kanna1.met.hu

19. First page

32. Catégories Forecast Probabilistic Forecast

33. Catégories Forecast How to define the categories? –Number –Categories Limits –Needs of user? How to evaluate the forecasted probabilities for each category? –Frequency/Probability, Climatological Probabilities, Conditionnal probabilities, Confidence Indice –Statistical Models –Numerical Models How to transform the forecast in « readable and comprehensive » form for the user?

34. Seasonnal Forecasting Process in Africa - RCOF (1) Dissemination –Dissemination of products by the NMHS, and interpretation to the benefit of users including national adaptation of regional products. Update of the forecasts (Monthly base) : –Continuous adaptation of the forecasts to the last available information on the climate system and its evolutions (notably update of the SST). Evaluation of Forecasts : –Quality of rainfall forecasts (technical evaluation) and use of the Forecasts (Users’ point of view evaluation – interest and value).

35. Predictability Actors and Associated Scales

36. Thank you for your attention

38. ! www.cred.be

40. The informatical system of HMS

41. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

47. Caribbean workshop, Jamaica 2001 (Peterson et al., 2002, JGR)

49. Long time series of annual precipitation sum in SE of Hungary

51. Magyarországi aszálytendenciák

52. Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat