1. SPARROW Watershed Modeling of the Entire Great Lakes Basin IAGLR Conference, McMaster University May 29, 2014 *dzrobert@usgs.gov (608) 821-3867 By Dale M. Robertson 1, D.A. Saad 1, G.A. Benoy 2, W. Jenkinson 3, and C.M. Johnston 4 1 U.S. Geological Survey, Wis. WSC 2 International Joint Commission 3 National Research Council of Canada 4 U.S. Geological Survey, NH/VT WSC

2. Pelee Island, Lake Erie Manitowoc, Lake Michigan Eutrophication Issues in the Great Lakes Lake Erie Cladophora on Beaches

3. Delavan Lake, Wisconsin The Importance of Nutrient Loading to Lakes is Well Known And several models available for smaller systems

4. Goals of SPARROW Modeling for the Great Lakes Basin: 1. Determine P and N loading over the entire basin (large spatial scale). 2. Determine where are the main contributing basins (Rank all contributing basins based on loads and yields). 3. Determine what are the main causes of the high loads (Describe the relative importance of nutrient sources). 4. Provide information to various regional organizations to support regional interpretation and guide local, more in-depth studies.

5. Pasture land runoff Pasture land runoff Cultivated land runoff Atmospheric deposition Urban runoff Wastewater discharge Land to water delivery Monitoringstation Grabhorn Studios Forested land runoff Flux Flux out Flux in Flux out = – Instream Decay Flux in + ( Sources x Delivery) Target = Instream transport and decay ss DD II SPARROW: SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes Watershed Model ssss DDDD IIII Mass Balance Modeling

6. Original Upper Midwest (U.S.) SPARROW Model One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability River Network – RF1 Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites Calibration

7. Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields Total Phosphorus Yields (kg km -2 ) 0 – 12 13 - 17 18 - 25 25 - 33 34 - 41 42 - 51 52 - 64 65 - 83 84 - 114 115 - 1000 1001 – 2,980 Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Total Phosphorus Yields (kg km -2 ) 0 – 12 13 - 17 18 - 25 25 - 33 34 - 41 42 - 51 52 - 64 65 - 83 84 - 114 115 - 1000 1001 – 2,980 Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields Robertson and Saad, 2011

8. Phosphorus Yields from the U.S. Portion of the Basins by Source Robertson and Saad, 2011

9. St. Louis Fox Ontonagon Maumee Saginaw Grand St. Joseph Oswego Genesee Saginaw Bay Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Prioritizing/Ranking Tributaries By Yield

10. Major Criticisms of Past SPARROW Modeling 1.Only part (U.S. side) of the watersheds have been modeled. 2. Spatial extent rather crude – ~HUC 11, ~100 km 2 3. Interbasin transfers and direct deposition were not included

11. 65% 67% 30% 44% 0% Percent of the Watersheds that were not Modeled

12. Feb 24-25, 2014 Windsor, ON Mid-Continent SPARROW Models for P and N

13. SPARROW Input Information NUTRIENT SOURCES (Base Year -2002) Point sources and other urban contributions Atmos. N deposition – (CMAQ) Farm fertilizer use allocated to major crops N 2 fixation – cultivated lands Animal manure Natural and residual sources (lands in forest, barren, shrub) AQUATIC ATTENUATION Streams –First-order decay ~ f(water travel time) Reservoirs –First-order decay ~ f(areal hydraulic load) LAND-TO-WATER DELIVERY Climate (precipitation, temperature) Soils (permeability) Topography/subsurface (slope, specific catchment area) Artificial drainage (tiles, ditches, new ARSC coverage) NUTRIENT Load Sites U.S. - NAWQA Canada Streamflow Network U.S. – NHD NAWQA Canada - NHN NUTRIENT Load Sites U.S. - NAWQA Modeling Canada – PWQMN/MCWS Streamflow Network U.S. - NHD Canada - NHN

14. Craig Johnston – physical scientist 18 years with U.S. Geological Survey based in New Hampshire 14 years experience building stream networks for SPARROW modeling in the U.S. and Canada Member of the NHDPlus development team International QW modeling team: Project lead and principal investigators Glenn Benoy – IJC - Ottawa Dale Robertson – USGS - Wisconsin Wayne Jenkinson – National Research Council – Ottawa Other PIs: David Saad – USGS Craig Johnston – USGS Mike Laitta – IJC – Washington D.C. Erika Klyszejko – Environment Canada Martin Serrer – National Research Council – Ottawa Richard Burcher – National Research Council – Ottawa John Gaiot – Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Jason Vanrobaeys – AAFC Rich Moore – USGS Pete Steeves – USGS Data Providers: Aaron Todd & Georgina Kaltenecker – Ontario Ministry of the Environment Conrad Wyrzykowski – AAFC Pam Minifie – Saskatchewan Environment Mark Henry – Statistics Canada Susan Collins – National Research Council – Ottawa Elaine Page – Manitoba Water Stewardship O. S. (Arasu) Thirunavukkarasu – Saskatchewan Environment Antonette Arvai – IJC – Windsor Craig McCrimmon & Tim Pascoe – Environment Canada International Team and Presenter Bio Mid-Continental SPARROW Models

15. Delivered incremental phosphorus yields estimated throughout the Red/Assiniboine River Basin Delivered Incremental Phosphorus Yield (kg/ha) Total Phosphorus Binational Red/Assiniboine SPARROW Models

16. Potential Load Sites for Model Development U.S. Site Canadian Site Streamflow – Environment Canada Water Quality – PWQMN and MCWS

18. Ontario NHN Stream Network for the Great Lakes in Canada 1.1 million reaches reduced to 188,535

19. Harmonizing data in Canada with NHDPlus with border rivers Pigeon River St. Marys River St Clair River Lake St Clair Detroit River Niagara River St Lawrence River

20. 20 Final Catchment Grid for the Great Lakes Stream Network Nutrient Inputs and Environmental Characteristics of ALL basins

21. Describing Nutrient Inputs (fertilizers, manure, fixation) Fertilizer Sales, Animals, Crop types

22. Wastewater Treatment Plant Effluent Ontario Ministry of the Environment Ontario Clean Water Agency Missing Areas based on Population

23. Mid-Continental SPARROW Model One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability River Network – NHD/NHN Long-term detrended Loads for ~1200 sites Calibration

24. +65% +0% +67% +30% +44% Complete Basins to be modeled

25. St. Louis Fox Ontonagon Maumee Saginaw Grand St. Joseph Oswego Genesee Saginaw Bay Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Prioritizing/Ranking Tributaries By Yield All Tributaries to be ranked

26. Online Mapping and Scenario Testing Tools will be Created 1. SPARROW Mapper – Easy and simple way to get SPARROW results, especially by hydrologic and political boundaries. 2. Decision Support System Scientists/Managers – Capable of using to visualize SPARROW output and run various scenarios.

27. NAWQA SPARROW Modeling 2012 SPARROW Models Robertson & Saad, WI RF1 (HUC11) > NHD Plus Scale(1:100,000) (HUC14) 2002 Inputs > 2012 Inputs

28. Predicting Future Phosphorus Loading to the Great Lakes HydroSPARROW : A GIS Regional Modeling Approach for Estimating Nutrient Loading to the Great Lakes Under Current and Future Climate and Land- Use Conditions

29. HydroSPARROW Total P and Total N Concentrations by Reach Streamflow by reach SPARROW Total P and Total N Loads Loads/Yields

30. Forested land (10 3 km 2 ) Agricultural land (10 3 km 2 ) Urban land area (10 3 km 2 ) Population (10 6 ) Predicted change in population and land use in basin Projected Changes in Population and Land Use Predicting Future Nutrient Loading with Changing Land Use Used to estimate changes in Nutrient Inputs LaBeau et al., In Review

31. Change in P loads (% Change) by watershed in 2040 for BioFuels Future Scenario

32. Predicting the Effects of Climate Change

33. Streamflow by RF1 reach PRMS (Christiansen and others) Total P and Total N Concentrations by Reach SPARROW Forecasting Future Nutrient Loading with Changing Climate

34. Predicting Future Changes in Nutrient Loading PRMS HydroSPARROW

35. Air Temperature Precipitation Streamflow Phosphorus Loading Projected Changes (average) by 2046-2065 Average of 8 models and 3 carbon emission scenarios M:\SPARROW\models\hydrosparrow\prms\sparrow\nllsr_tp

36. Dale M. Robertson *dzrobert@usgs.gov (608) 821-3867 Questions?? SPARROW Watershed Modeling of the Entire Great Lakes Basin