1. Growing The U.S. Livestock Economy: The Environmental (Phosphorous Assimilation) Challenge Tyler Mark, Louisiana State University Mike Boehlje, Allan Gray, and Brad Joern, Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics

2. Objective Is livestock growth on a per state basis feasible according to a strict phosphorus application standard for livestock manure? Who Cares? State governments, livestock producers, environmental regulators, and livestock associations that are trying to promote livestock growth within their respective states.

3. Environmental Capacity  P Produced  P Assimilated Capacity of Federally and State Inspected Processing Plants SWOT Analysis for Indiana’s Livestock Industry Feed CapacityEnvironmental CapacityProcessing Capacity P ProducedP Assimilated Surplus or Deficit Feed Consumed Production of Meat, Dairy, and Poultry Feed Produced Surplus or Deficit Location Implications  County  District  State Indiana Specific Analysis Population - Population Density - Animal Density Processing Capacity  Number of Plants Social/Legal Acceptance  Population Density  Animal Density Feed Availability  Total Production  Feed Prices State Comparison Potential Growth for Indiana Livestock

4. Data Livestock Inventories – USDA & Industry Professionals Crop Production – USDA Inorganic Commercial Fertilizer Sales – National Fertilizer Institute & Indiana State Chemist Phosphorus Excretion – ASAE Standards Phosphorus Assimilation – Nutrient Recommendations for Field Crops in Michigan & Tri-State Fertilizer Recommendations

5. State Comparison

6. States Included in Comparison Minnesota Mississippi North Carolina Ohio Oklahoma Pennsylvania South Carolina Texas West Virginia Wisconsin Arizona Arkansas California Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Kansas Kentucky Michigan *Selected states with highest growth in inventories in 7 livestock segments for 2000-2004 or are boarder states to Indiana

7. 1. Not a uniform product 2. Soil compaction 3. Transportation cost Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/ www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/ Percent of Farms That Applied Manure and Percent of Acres that Received Manure Application by State

8. Phosphorus Production by Species for 2004 -0.100.200.300.400.500.60 % of Total P Produced Beef Dairy Poultry Swine Livestock Segment U.S.Study

9. Percentage of States Nutrient Assimilation Capacity Used

10. Estimated State Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard (Livestock Phosphorus Production Only) Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and West Virginia have excess phosphorus from just livestock production

11. Estimated State Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard (Livestock & Commercial Fertilizer) Arkansas, California, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina, and Wisconsin have excess phosphorus as a result of commercial fertilizer Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Wisconsin have excess phosphorus from livestock and commercial fertilizer

12. Assimilation Capacity Implications Crops grown in the Corn Belt are efficient at phosphorus assimilation Traditionally, livestock farms in the Corn Belt have more cropland than livestock farms in other regions

13. StateAssimilation Capacity 1 (Livestock)Assimilation Capacity 1 (Livestock and Fertilizer) <50%<100% ArizonaXX Arkansas California Georgia IdahoX IllinoisXX IndianaX IowaXX KansasXX KentuckyX MichiganX MinnesotaX Mississippi North Carolina OhioX Oklahoma Pennsylvania South Carolina TexasXX West Virginia WisconsinX 1) Capacity Used at strict Phosphorus Standard LEGEND X in bothX in 1X in 0

14. Example of State Specific Analysis (Indiana)

15. Indiana’s Current Manure Application Policy P < 50 ppm = 3 times P crop removal rate (Nitrogen Standard) 50 < P < 100 ppm = 1.5 times P crop removal 100 < P < 200 ppm = 1.0 time P crop removal P > 200 ppm = NO APPLICATION Source: www.in.nrcs.usda.gov/tsp.htmlwww.in.nrcs.usda.gov/tsp.html

16. Estimated County Level Assimilation Capacity at 1.5 times the Phosphorus Standard LivestockLivestock & Fertilizer

17. Estimated County Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard Livestock Livestock & Fertilizer

18. Implications Counties with excess nutrients have options  Substitute manure for fertilizer  Change cropping patterns  Change livestock rations  Alternative use methods (methane digester, composting) These methods will not eliminate P  Decrease livestock inventories

19. Conclusions Phosphorus assimilation could be a limiting factor Assimilation Capacity  Corn belt crops are more efficient at phosphorus assimilation  Changing crop patterns (i.e. increased corn production for ethanol)  Changing livestock rations As EPA regulations continue to tighten and stricter phosphorus standards are implemented, new technology will be needed for growth of livestock

20. Strategy Recommendations 1. Promote the value of manure nutrients and encourage the substitution of manure for commercial fertilizer. Indiana livestock alone does not produce enough phosphorus to meet the states demand for phosphorus, but the livestock industry is a significant supplier. In addition, work with the commercial fertilizer industry to identify strategies that will benefit both livestock producers and commercial fertilize dealers 2. Continue to develop new ways to increase the value of manure through alternative methods that will increase manures’ mobility and uniformity. Currently some livestock producers view manure as a waste and not a value added product. Indiana must show farmers the value of their manure.

21. Strategy Recommendations (continued) 3. Continue to work with researchers to find ways to change the Nitrogen and Phosphorus ratios in the manure 4. Work with fertilizer industry to find ways to blend manure with commercial fertilizers. 5. Continue to work with researchers to find methods to do real time testing of manure nutrients.

22. Comments & Questions