1. The Impact of Achieving Targets set out in Food Harvest 2020 on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Usage Noel Culleton

2. Food Harvest 2020 Targets  Increase value of primary output by € 1.5 billion  50% increase in milk output  Increase in output value of 20% in beef and sheep  No targets for cereals

3. Principles and Issues around Sustainable Fertiliser Usage  Maximising output from grassland  Soil phosphorus (P) balances and spreading strategies  Environmental challenges to FH 2020

4. Maximising Output From Grassland  Grass grazed efficiently is cheapest feed source  Remain competitive by reducing concentrate and silage fed  Productive grassland depends on adequate soil fertility “To achieve FH 2020 targets by maximising grass output, rather than increasing concentrate feed, means that maintaining soil fertility is vital”

5. Soil Nutrient Balances and Fertiliser Strategies Table 1. The Phosphorus Index Soil P Index Soil P Range GrasslandOther Crops 1< 3.0 23.1-5.03.1-6.0 35.1-8.06.1-10.0 4>8.0>10.0  Phosphorus maintenance and build up  Concept of P balance  P balance and stocking rate

6. Environmental Challenges to FH 2020  Grassland and nutrient cycling  Environmental issues: Water quality Climate Change Biodiversity

7. Water Quality  Nitrates Directive vs. Water Framework Directive  Negotiations on water quality vs. Increasing fertiliser use - (P balance)  Source verification

8. Climate Change  Proportionate burden sharing across sectors poses a threat to 2020 targets  This threat must be challenged: No increases in stock numbers (FAPRI) Emissions per kg of product are low Forestry may help resolve issue More efficiencies to be found in farming

9. Biodiversity  Will a reduction in biodiversity pose a threat to achieving targets ? unlikely!!  Template needed to find local solutions to local problems, with mechanisms for cost benefit analyses  Nationally, stocking rates are still low  More regulation in high conservation areas  Opportunities for more biodiversity on intensive farms

10. Predicted Impact of FH 2020 on Phosphorus Usage Methodology: 1. CSO data for milk and beef in reference years (2007-2009) 2. 50% increase in milk sales 3. FAPRI data used for beef and sheep production in 2020 4. P offtakes as reported by Coulter and Lalor (2008) 5. Cereal production in 2007-2009 as recorded by CSO 6. Cereal production in 2020 as predicted by FAPRI 7. Calculations based on p balance - adequate soil p status is assumed

11. P offtakes Table 2. Estimated Phosphorus Offtakes (tonnes per year) in Milk, Beef and Tillage Production Type Phosphorus offtake (tonnes) Reference Years2020 Change in P offtakes Tillage*8,3016,953-1,348 Meat10,86011,400+540 Milk4,93474,01+2,467 Total P offtake24,09525,754+1,649 % Change+6.9%  *Tillage figure based on FAPRI estimate of 18% reduction in tillage area  P offtakes kg/ha/yr in each enterprise Beef4-6 kg Milk10-14 kg Tillage30-40 kg

12. Soil P Fertility Table 3. % of Soils in each Soil Index Category 2001-2011 Index200120052007200920102011 1171814182124 2232527262830 327 29282624 43330 282522 Source: Plunkett 2012

13. Future Soil P Fertility Table 4. Speculative data on soil P status from 2007 to 2020, based on estimated data and linearly extrapolated projections from Table 3 Index20072011 % change per year 2020 (Projected) 11424+2.547 22730+ 0.837 32924-1.313 43022-2.04

14. Implications of Poor Fertility  1.5 t DM per ha less at Index 1 than at Index 3 (Teagasc)  Table 4 implies that an additional 750,000 ha of grassland will revert to Index 1  Therefore there will be approx. 1 million tonnes of grass DM less than current output  If output is to be maintained, extra concentrates must be fed

15. Issues that need to be addressed  Phosphorus is a finite resource (Cordell et al.,2009)  Sustainable P usage by farmers  Water quality cannot be ignored  More knowledge: Soil chemistry P recycling Soil type and recommendations Overland flow prevention measures

16. Predicted Impact Of FH 2020 on Nitrogen Usage  Predicted livestock numbers  Predicted changes in land use in 2020  Predicted fertiliser nitrogen for grazing livestock in 2020

17. Livestock Numbers Table 5. Predicted Livestock Numbers in 2020 ‘000 Head Reference Years FH 2020% Change Total Cattle64875715- 12 % Dairy cows10651381+ 30 % Other cows1165925- 21 % Total Sheep42505020+ 18 % Source: FAPRI-Ireland Predictions, Donnellan and Hanrahan,2011

18. Land Use Change Table 6. Predicted changes in % of land used by different enterprises in 2020 Enterprise Reference Years FH 2020% Change Dairy30.1 %35.5 %+ 18 % Cattle46.7 %43.0 %- 8 % Sheep13.8 % 0 % Tillage9.4 %7.7 %- 18 % Sources : FAPRI 2011 ; Farm Management Survey 2011; Fertiliser Use Survey 2008

19. Assumptions and Calculations  Farmers moving out of beef and tillage will move into dairying  The extra land available to dairying will moderate stocking rates to a 10 % increase  Stocking rate increases will occur across all stocking rate groupings

20. Table 7. Nitrogen Fertiliser Use on the Dairy Grazing Platform under FH 2020 Scenario

21. Nitrogen Projections  Mean N use for dairying will increase by 18 %  50% of cows will be in the 130-170 kg/ha of organic N grouping resulting in a 24 % increase in N usage  More scope for lowly stocked farms (<170 kg/ha of organic N) to increase cow numbers compared to highly stocked farms due to land availability and Nitrate Directive restrictions.  Significant increases in cow numbers at high stocking rates, requiring derogations.

22. Nitrogen Fertiliser Table 8. National Nitrogen Fertiliser Use 2007-09 mean N fert use (kg/ha) 2007-09 distribution of total N fert use FH 2020 mean N fert use (kg/ha) FH 2020 change in total N fert use FH 2020 distribution of total N fert use Dairy1125313211864 % Cattle28212810016 % Sheep307 1006 % Tillage1372013710014 % Weighted Mean 95110 FH 2020 Total N Fertiliser Use (% of reference years) 116 %

23. Summary and Conclusions (1) 1. There will be 2,467 extra tonnes of p removed per year from dairying. To maintain soil fertility this must be replaced 2. Due to the projected decline in area under tillage p use should decline by approx 17 %. this may be a pessimistic view 3. Modest increase in P usage in beef systems - approx. 540 tonnes per year 4. Over all increase in P usage in use of 6.9 % 5. The % of soils in Index 1 and 2 have increased from 40 % to 55 % in the last 5 years

24. Summary and Conclusions (2) 6. If we extrapolate this decline to 2020, there will be 47 % of soils in Index 1 and 37 % of soils in Index 2 7. There is a decline in yield of 1.5 t DM/ha/yr from Index 3 to Index 1. This means a reduction of 1 million tonnes of grass DM per year, should this decline continue.  Extra concentrates will be required to replace this grass  This will result in a decline in competitiveness 8. Need for an awareness campaign to highlight the importance of P to the industry. Point out that there need not be a deterioration in water quality when P usage is increased, if good farm practice is adhered to 9. Urgently need more technical information on P cycling/ chemistry/ recommendations and measures to prevent overland flow

25. Summary and Conclusions (3) 10. Trends in n use are more difficult to predict 11. 18 % increase in N use in dairying, due to increases in stocking rates 12. Little change in n usage in beef or sheep 13. Decline in N use in tillage, due to predicted reduction in tillage area. This scenario may not arise 14. Nitrogen use in the whole sector is projected to increase by approximately 16 % 15. The major change is in the dairy sector 16. In 2007-09, Dairy used 53% of the total N. By 2020,dairying is projected to use 64 % of the total N

26. Summary and Conclusions (4) 17. Research on improving N recovery/ recycling needs to be expanded 18. The projected fertiliser increases in usage in this paper can be achieved without breaking the Nitrates Directive regulations. The P increases are due to increased output and maintaining P balances 19. The extra nitrogen is needed to maintain the increased stocking rates that are still within the organic nitrogen thresholds outlined in the Nitrates Directive.