1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

2. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model Presented by John Dunne Presented by John Dunne

3. 3 Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model TOPAZ representation of the Carbon Cycle Results of ‘HISTORICAL’ ocean/ice simulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis (Common Ocean Reference Experiment Inter-annually variable forcing version 2) Results of ESM2.1 IPCC SRES A1B simulation

4. 4 Removal Small phyto. Large phyto. Protist Filter feeder DOM Detritus New nutrients Recycled nutrients N 2 -fixer DOM cycling Particle sinking Gas exchange Atm. Deposition River Input Sediment Input Scavenging Carbon OxygenPhosphorus CaCO 3 NitrogenIronAlkalinityLithogenicSilicon Biogeochemistry Phytoplankton ecology Tracers Of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ) simulates the mechanisms that control the ocean carbon cycle Dunne et al (2005, 2007)

5. 5 N Pacific S Pacific N Atlantic S Atlantic Indian Simulated expansion of oligotrophic gyres (ocean deserts) is similar to SeaWIFS ( Polovina et al, 2008 ) and within a large, multidecadal envelope. log(SeaWiFS satellite Chlorophyll)log(Model Chlorophyll) HISTORICAL simulation reproduces SeaWiFS chlorophyll variability and puts it in a multidecadal context

6. 6 Overall response Significant reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 uptake due to climate change (Sarmiento and Le Quere, 1996; Sarmiento et al., 1998) Little climate change effect on natural CO 2 partitioning Sabine (2005) ESM2.1 ocean CO 2 uptake response to atmospheric CO 2 and climate forcing similar to previous work

7. 7 99 PgC 104 PgC 99-137 PgC 5 4 3 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 2.0 PgC/yr 2.3 PgC/yr 1.4 PgC/yr Observed historical ESM2.1 CO 2 Flux out of ocean (mol m -2 yr -1 ) Takahashi (2006) Anthropogenic CO 2 Inventory (mol m -2 ) Sabine et al (2004); Key et al. (2004) Model captures natural CO 2 cycling and anthropogenic CO 2 invasion

8. 8 Resulting 52% decrease in calcite export from 100m 1860 2000 2100 This reduction in calcite export reduces the efficiency of sinking organic material to 1000 m by 16% This reduction in calcite export similar to previous work (Ridgewell et al. 2006) Acidification from 1860 to 2100 (% [H + ] change) Atlantic Pacific ESM2.1 projects ocean acidification changes with severe implications for CaCO 3 cycling

9. 9 Total Productivity Large Phytoplankton Productivity N 2 Fixation 2% decrease in total productivity 11% decrease in large phytoplankton productivity Little change in N 2 fixation 13% increase in oligotrophic gyre (ocean desert) area Projected change in global productivity from 1860 (%) 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 ESM2.1 projects modest decrease in total productivity and major decrease in large phytoplankton ‘winners and losers’, but more losers than winners

10. 10 GFDL’s TOPAZ ocean biogeochemical model has been developed to simulate ocean carbon cycling and its biogeochemical controls TOPAZ reproduces regional and temporal variability in chlorophyll and suggests the recent expansion of oligotrophic gyres (ocean deserts) is within the envelope of multi-decadal variability TOPAZ reproduces observations of natural CO 2 cycling and historical anthropogenic CO 2 invasion and predicts future CO 2 uptake consistent with previous work ESM2.1 predicts significant decrease in CaCO 3 cycling and large phytoplankton production and increase in oligotrophic areas over this century Summary of Ocean Biogeochemical Results

11. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009