1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Post Deyr 10/11 January 2011 Central EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

2. - Partial access in all livelihoods (Addun, Hawd, Cowpea and Coastal) - In areas which could not be accessed by the assessment team, the information was collected by FSNAU Field Analysts through teleconferencing with enumerators and key informants. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Central Agro pastoral Livelihood: Sheep & Goats, Camel, Cattle (South Mudug, Galgadud). Farm size is 3-4 Ha and mostly reserved for own fodder use. Cowpea Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales. Main source of food: purchase and food gifts Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 3 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Addun, Coastal Deeh Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock, livestock products, bush product and kinship support  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase, and food aid  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat Livelihood Zones Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

4. Overall Statement: Deyr rainfall has failed completely in most areas. However, some pockets in Hawd, Addun and Cowpea Belt received a few days of light showers Start of Season: The rains started with a few days of light showers between 1 st and 2 nd Dekad of October Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very localized, few days of showers in early October followed by a long dry spell in the following period up to the end of the season Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11Rainfall

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions

6.  Civil Security Situation Continuous armed clashes between opposing parties; Resource based conflicts in rural settlements of Hobyo, Adado and Abudwak; Security worsened in chronic conflict centers of Dhusamareb and Guricel and is likely to spread into new zones; Increased marine piracy attacks with more hijackings of cargo ships for ransom Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition Human death and causalities of active workforce and displacement Population displacement Limited humanitarian access and provision of humanitarian assistance to people in crisis Disruption of trade and income earning activities Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

7. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates District Deyr ‘10/11 production in MT CowpeaSorghumMaizeTotal Elbur 0000 Elder 0000 Harardere 0000 Hobyo 0000 Total.. 00 00

8. Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Agriculture Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Haradere, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Sorghum production in Elder, Dec.09

9. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow

10. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: ( 5kg of sorghum /daily wage)

11. Abnormal migration of livestock to Hawd and parts of Addun pastoral, whcih have relatively better pasture and water as a result of near normal rains in October and good Gu 2010 rains Depletion of pasture/water in the Coastal Deeh, Cowpea Belt and most parts of Addun Death of small ruminants in Coastal Deeh, Cowpea Belt and parts in Addun Deteriorating livestock body condition in Hawd and parts of Addun Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Deyr 2010/11

12. Livestock Sector Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock species Galgaduud & south Mudug No conceptions among All species in All livelihoods Except Hawd and parts of Addun with low conception rates Cowpea Belt & Coastal: Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goats: Medium to Low Cattle: None to low Hawd & Addun: Camel: None Sheep/goats: Medium to High None to low for all species in all livelihoods Cowpea belt and Coastal Deeh: Camel: Low Cattle: None Goat/sheep: None Hawd and Addun: Camel: Medium Goat/sheep: Low to None Addun Pastoral Camel: Above Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 16% in Jun. ‘11 Sheep/Goats: Slightly above Baseline. Slightly increased by 4% between Jun – Dec ‘10 but expected to decrease by 4% till Jun ’11. Hawd Pastoral Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 13% in Jun. ’11 Sheep/Goats: Near Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but sustained unchanged till Jun. ’11 Cowpea Belt Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 and further decreased by another 9% till Jun ’11 Cattle: Below Baseline. Decreased by 47% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected further decline of 8% till Jun ‘11 Sheep/goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 47% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected further decline of 14% till Jun ‘11 Coastal DeehCamel: Below baseline, Decreased by 8% between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected slight decline till Jun ‘11 Goat/sheep: Below Baseline. Significantly decreased by 81% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected further declined by 6% till Jun ’11.

13. Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Goat Local Quality Prices (SoSh) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: local quality goat/cereal (50kg of sorghum per head of goat)

14. Livestock Deyr 2010 Assessment Photos Water trucking, Wisil, Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Skinned goat/sheep, Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Water trucking, Herale, Abudwak, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10Abnormal migration from Mataban, Dusamareb, Galgadud, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

15. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Livestock Destocking, Dumaye Village, Haradheere, Mudug, Dec. ‘10 Hand fed Sheep, Eldhere Village, Hobyo, Mudug, Dec. 10 Weak Pack camel, Gawan village, Hobyo Mudug, Dec. ‘10 Emaciated Livestock Body Condition, Haradhere Addun Pastoral, Mudug, Dec. ’10

16. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Markets Slight increase in prices for some of the monitored import commodities (last six months) Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Shortage in locally produced cereal supplies Cessation of food aid distribution Ban on commercial food aid Poor market accessibility due to poor road infrastructure

17. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (July-Dec’10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu Central Galgad Ud & S.Mudug) Hawd Pastoral N=593 GAM:13.0%& SAM:2.9%; Oedema: 0.5%,CMR: 0.30/ 10,000/day U5MR: 0.62/10.000 (FSNAU/ Partners, Nov ‘10, R=1). Addun Pastoral=591 GAM: 11.0% SAM: 2.5% CMR:0.71/10,000/da y&U5MR:1.91/10,000/ day. FSNAU/ Partners, Nov’10, R=1). Cowpea Belt: No Survey Coastal Deeh No Survey Hawd: <12.5cm=3.7% <11.5cm=1.7% Addun: <12.5cm=2.8% <11.5cm=0.6% <12.5cm=14.3 % <11.5cm=3.0% 12.5cm=12.3% <11.5cm=3.0% Low proportion but Stable trend reported (FSNAU, HIS, July-Dec10, ‘R=3) High >15 % and stable trends (FSNAU, HIS, July-Dec ’10,R=3) High >15%and stable trends High>20 % and increasing trends N/A High OTP in admission in Dhusamareeb July-DEC’10, SRCS, R=2 N/A Hawd/Addun: High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern Low access to safe water 30.9% & 61.7% latrine 35.1% &54.3% in Hawd and Addun respectively. low coverage of health programmes <80 Insecurity/Displacements &limited interventions Deteriorating FS situation-future outlook Cowpea Coastal Deeh: No milk available in Coastal aarea nd limited availability n Cowpea. Reduced income due lack of salable animals in coastal Some mitigating factors Interventions in Howd/Addun Active kinship support Income from livestock sale in Hawd and Addun – milk after good Gu Hawd –Serious improvement from GU’10 Addun – Serious Improved from post Gu’10 Very Critical Cowpea Belt: Likely – Sustained Critical – from post Gu’10 Coastal Deeh Likely Critical- deteriorated from post Gu’10 Serious phase

18. Nutrition Situation Estimates Jan 2011Nutrition Situation Estimates Jul 2010 Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Situation Maps

19. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Hawd: HE Watch – HE 25% Poor, AFLC 75% Poor; Addun: HE Watch - HE 50% Poor, AFLC 50% Poor; Cowpea belt: HE Watch – HE 100% Poor; AFLC 100% Middle; Coastal Deeh: HE Watch – 25% Poor are destitute, HE 100% Poor, AFLC: 50% middle; SIP - HE 75% Poor, AFLC 25% Poor, 50% Middle Acute malnutrition: Serious in Hawd and Addun; likely Critical in Cowpea Belt and likely sustained Critical in Cowpea Belt Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day Water Access: Average of 6.6 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Concentrated and increasing (e.g. Galgadud and south Mudug) Coping: Distress strategies and increasing in Hawd and Addun Livelihood Assets: Near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of assets in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt livelihoods Main Contributing Factors:  Very poor Deyr rainfall received in most areas  Limited options for livestock outmigration  Decline in livestock production & reproduction and decreased conception rates  Total cowpea crop failure in agropastoral of Central  Market disruption due to escalating insecurity in the region  Increased cereal prices MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

20. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) GalgaduudCabudwaaq32,654 9,0008,000 5,000 Cadaado36,304 12,0008,0009,0007,000 Ceel Buur66,274 36,00012,00027,00015,000 Ceel Dheer61,407 24,0005,00026,00016,000 Dhuusamarreeb74,441 40,00015,00026,00015,000 SUB-TOTAL271,080 121,00048,00096,00058,000 South MudugGaalkacyo24,860 9,0004,0006,0004,000 Hobyo54,438 25,0008,00019,00013,000 Xarardheere52,157 23,0006,00020,00012,000 SUB-TOTAL131,455 57,00018,00045,00029,000 GRAND TOTAL402,535178,00066,000141,00087,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 244,000228,000

21. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zone Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) GalgaduudAddun pastoral123,218 79,00017,00048,00017,000 Central Agro-Past60,944 33,0008,00034,00015,000 Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral41,030 5,000 8,0003,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep20,242 3,00004,000 Southern Inland Past7,453 1,000 2,0001,000 Destitute pastoralists 18,191 017,000018,000 SUB-TOTAL271,080 121,00048,00096,00058,000 South MudugAddun pastoral41,823 34,0007,00021,0007,000 Central Agro-Past31,750 17,0004,00017,0008,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep29,257 4,00005,0006,000 Hawd Pastoral16,243 2,000 1,000 Destitute pastoralists 12,382 05,00007,000 Sub-Total131,455 57,00018,00045,00029,000 GRAND TOTAL402,535178,00066,000141,00087,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 244,000228,000

22. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 8,41303,00036 Cadaado 9,32603,00032 Ceel Buur 12,81804,00031 Ceel Dheer 11,60104,00034 Dhuusamarreeb 16,81908,00048 Sub-Total 58,977022,00037 South Mudug Gaalkacyo54,80019,000035 Hobyo12,8113,0001,00031 Xarardheere13,3864,0001,00037 Sub-Total 80,99726,0002,00035

23. The End