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Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Agroecosystems And Mitigation Potential X. Vergé, C. de Kimpe and R. Desjardins Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture.

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Presentation on theme: "Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Agroecosystems And Mitigation Potential X. Vergé, C. de Kimpe and R. Desjardins Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture."— Presentation transcript:

1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Agroecosystems And Mitigation Potential X. Vergé, C. de Kimpe and R. Desjardins Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale

2 Issues Population growth (10 9 people) 6.17.28.1 200020152030 Global Food Consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 17.121.624.8 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale

3 Impact on the environment Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Agriculture: Source of water pollution by nitrates, phosphates. Source of land degradation (erosion, salinization, nutrient depletion …). Major anthropogenic source of the greenhouse gases CH 4 and N 2 O and some contribution to CO 2 emission.

4 GHG - Global Emission Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale

5 Objectives of the presentation Discuss on a regional basis the present and future trends in : 1.Population, food consumption and need 2.Impact on GHG emissions 3.Mitigation potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale

6 Regional Associations Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale

7 Past and Future trends 1965199520152030 0.30.71.11.4 Population (10 9 people) 0.71.92.85.0 Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) Human context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Africa (RA I) 2000 0.8 2.2

8 Potential of Land Extension North AfricaSub-Sahara 13 % 78 % Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale RA I Africa 19922002 1.9 2.1Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 9.19.0 Forest7.06.5 (Unit : 10 6 km²)

9 Crops corn, sorghum, millet, cassava, rice 19922002 Livestock sheep, cattle, goat, pig, camel Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 210248 Agriculture & GHG emissions Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) CH 4 N2ON2O Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste From N-Fertilizer 19902000 4.04.7 190222 7.78.9 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (2.0Mt)(2.8Mt) 3.5(Mt)4.3(Mt) 1013 1820 2030 + 42% 315 2030 Rice paddy3859 RA I Africa

10 C-Sink, yield increase Trends & Mitigation Potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale - Increasing yield (fertilization efficiency, disease and insect controls…) Improving diet quality Trends  CO 2 - 1.6 Mkm² (2030) Mitigation potential N-Fertiliser rate Forests + 42% - Rice management RA I Africa Ruminants  CH 4  N 2 O  Livestock  Reforestation  Crop Production

11 Human context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Asia (RA II) Past and Future trends 1965199520152030 Population (10 9 people) Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 2000 3.7 10.5 1.93.44.44.9 4.29.612.614.9

12 Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale 19922002 5.25.4 Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 10.511.0 Forest 10.911.0 (Unit : 10 6 km²) South Asia 37 % East Asia < 10 % Potential of Land Extension RA II Asia

13 rice, wheat, corn Livestock pig, goat, cattle, sheep, buffaloes Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 571624 Crops 19922002 Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) CH 4 N2ON2O Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste From N-Fertilizer 19902000 6885 635686 7975 Rice paddies Agriculture & GHG emissions Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale 552550 N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (38Mt)(47Mt) 58(Mt)73(Mt) 7893 117144 RA II Asia 2030 +22% 2030 837

14 - Reforestation in India - Fertilization efficiency - Improving diet quality Trends  CO 2 + 0.4 Mkm² (2030) Mitigation potential N-Fertiliser rate: slight Forests + 22% - Improving rice management Ruminants  CH 4  N 2 O  Livestock  Forest  Crop Production - Manure management Trends & Mitigation Potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale RA II Asia - Increasing feed digestibility

15 Human context Past and Future trends 1965199520152030 Population (10 9 people) Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 2000 0.27 0.8 0.130.250.320.35 0.30.70.91.0 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale South West Pacific (RA V)

16 10.6 10 6 km² Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale South West Pacific 19922002 0.9 Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 4.44.2 Forest 3.43.2 (Unit : 10 6 km²) - Few possibilities - Deforestation Potential of Land Extension RA V

17 Livestock Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 4253 Crops 19922002 Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) CH 4 N2ON2O Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste From N-Fertilizer 19902000 4.66.7 117112 12 11 Sheep, cattle, pig, goat rice paddy, wheat, barley Agriculture & GHG emissions Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Rice paddies 5557 N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (2.6Mt)(3.9Mt) 5.5(Mt)7.4(Mt) 2140 6278 South West Pacific RA V

18 - Improving fertilizer efficiency Vaccination, additives in diet, … Trends  CO 2 - 0.41 Mkm² (2030) Mitigation potential N-Fertiliser rate Forests Ruminants  CH 4  N 2 O  Livestock  Forest Management  Crop Production (mainly in Indonesia) Trends & Mitigation Potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale South West Pacific RA V - Rice management

19 Human context Past and Future trends 1965199520152030 Population (10 9 people) Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 2000 0.3 0.9 0.20.30.40.5 0.40.91.21.5 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale South America (RA III)

20 17.8 10 6 km² 81% Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale 19922002 1.11. 3Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 5.05.2 Forest 9.28.9 (Unit : 10 6 km²) Potential of Land Extension RA III South America

21 Livestock Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 288322 Crops 19922002 Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) CH 4 N2ON2O Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste From N-Fertilizer 19902000 3.46.2 331357 1112 cattle, sheep, pig, goat corn, soybean, wheat Agriculture & GHG emissions Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (1.7Mt)(3.4Mt) 5.3(Mt)10.7(Mt) 1527 4679 RA III South America 2030 +38% 2030 493

22 Increasing yield: fertilizer management Improving diet quality Trends  CO 2 - 1.1 Mkm² (2030) Mitigation potential N-Fertiliser rate Forests + 38% Ruminants  CH 4  N 2 O  Livestock  Forest Management  Crop Production  Non food Production Support biofuel production Trends & Mitigation Potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale RA III South America

23 Human context Past and Future trends 1965199520152030 Population (10 9 people) Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 2000 0.49 1.6 0.300.460.570.65 0.81.41.82.0 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale North America (RA IV) Europe (RA VI) 1965199520152030 Population (10 9 people) Food consumption (10 12 kcal/day) 2000 0.71 2.2 0.620.710.700.67 1.92.22.12.0 North AmericaEurope

24 Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Most of the suitable lands already used 19922002 2.7 Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 3.73.6 Forest 5.5 (Unit : 10 6 km²) Potential of Land Extension RA IV North America

25 11.5 10 6 km² Geographical context Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Europe Potential of Land Extension Most of the suitable lands already used 19922002 3.13.0 Arable & permanent crop Permanent pasture 1.8 Forest 3.53.6 (Unit : 10 6 km²) RA VI

26 Crops 19922002 Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) N2ON2O From N-Fertilizer 19902000 2627 corn, soybean, wheat Agriculture & GHG emissions Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (13Mt)(14Mt) 24(Mt) 4953 8792 North America Europe 19922002 wheat, barley, corn, sunflower seeds N-Fertilizer (kg/ha) Total-Fertilizer (kg/ha) (15Mt)(13Mt) 30(Mt)22(Mt) 4843 9371 N2ON2O From N-Fertilizer 19902000 25.825.5

27 Livestock Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 161 Greenhouse gas (TgCO 2equiv ) CH 4 Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste 19902000 211205 3745 cattle, sheep, pig, goat Agriculture & GHG emissions Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale North America CH 4 Enteric Fermentation Animal Waste 19902000 346250 5342 Ruminants (M heads) 19922002 202140 pig, cattle, sheep, goat Europe

28 (for industrial countries) Trends & Mitigation Potential Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Trends Mitigation potential  Livestock  Crop production  Land Use  Diet Quality (increase digestibility)  Manure Management (covered lagoons, biodigester, seasonal application, …)  Fertilizer Efficiency  Shelterbelt  Woodlands  No Tillage North America Europe  Non food Production Biofuel production  CO 2 N-Fertiliser rate Forests Ruminants  CH 4  N 2 O or slight

29 Conclusion 1/3 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Food Consumption in the Future Situation by Regional Associations (growth rate %)

30 Mitigation Practices Conclusion 2/3 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Enteric fermentation additives vaccination high quality forage Manure emission covered lagoons dry storage biodigester seasonal application NH 3 treatment of straws Rice management Fertilizer efficiency No tillage Disease and insect controls Biofuels Livestock Crop production Forest Non food products Small scale (ex :shelterbelts) Large scale (reforestation)

31 Conclusion 3/3 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada World Meteorological Organization Organisation Meteorologique Mondiale Steps to Chose and Adopt Mitigation Practices - Suggestions - 1) Identify the main sources of GHG emission 2) Consider country wealth (already used or potential) 3) Chose the better way to mitigate GHG emissions 4) Explain why it is necessary to do and how (to politics and farmers) 5) Set up an example 6) Generalize this practice

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