1. Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Manila Observatory 14 April 2005

2. TYPHOON TRACKS

3. EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS

4. Where does the money go?

5. RISK likelihood of harm, loss, disaster

6. Physical impact of disturbance HAZARD Capacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard VULNERABILITY RISK Elements affected by hazard EXPOSURE

7. Risk = H x E x V

8. Exposure Population Natural habitat Conservation areas Groundwater

9. EXPOSURE POPULATION DENSITY 2000 National Statistics Office City/Municipal Population Data 1km x 1km grids

10. EXPOSURE NATURAL HABITAT Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

11. EXPOSURE CONSERVATION AREAS Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

12. EXPOSURE GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY Mines and Geosciences Bureau

13. Vulnerability Human Development Index –Education –Health –Economy Urban centers Socio-eco pressures Transport

14. VULNERABILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000) UNDP Education Health Income

15. VULNERABILITY HIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERS Task Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines

16. VULNERABILITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

17. VULNERABILITY TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

18. EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITY POPULATION DENSITY 2000 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

19. Hazards/Risks Natural –Typhoon –Drought (El Nino) –Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide) –Volcano –Tsunami Anthropogenic –Deforestation –Mining –Climate change (temperature,rainfall)

20. HAZARD TYPHOON Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms, Typhoons, Super typhoons) 0.25º x 0.25º grids (1945-2001)

21. RISK (Typhoon) Ifugao La Union Cagayan Ilocos Sur Albay Mountain Province Kalinga Pangasinan Sorsogon Pampanga Camarines Sur Catanduanes Nueva Ecija Ilocos Norte Northern Samar Tarlac Apayao Rizal Benguet Camarines Norte

22. HAZARD EL NINO IPCC-DDC-CRU 0.5º x 0.5º grids (1971-2000)

23. RISK (Drought/El Niño) Sulu Basilan Maguindanao Lanao Del Sur Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Misamis Occidental Sarangani Zamboanga Del Sur South Cotabato Zamboanga Del Norte North Cotabato Sultan Kudarat Siquijor Tawi-tawi Negros Oriental Camiguin Davao del Norte Misamis Oriental Bukidnon

24. HAZARD EARTHQUAKE National Geographic Data Center 0.25º x 0.25º grids (1963-2001)

25. RISK (Earthquake) Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan Western Samar Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Surigao Del Sur Albay Rizal Cavite Cebu Occidental Mindoro Camarines Sur La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Laguna Metro Manila

26. HAZARD EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES PHIVOLCS

27. RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides) Albay Rizal Cebu Camarines Sur Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Western Samar Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Laguna Misamis Occidental Capiz Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte

28. HAZARD DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOES PHIVOLCS

29. RISK (Volcano) Sulu Albay Tarlac Zambales Negros Oriental Pampanga Batangas Davao del Norte Biliran Camiguin Laguna Sorsogon South Cotabato Camarines Sur Quezon North Cotabato Bukidnon Cagayan Leyte Negros Occidental

30. HAZARD TSUNAMI Environmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF

31. RISK (Tsunami) Albay Cavite Cebu Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Metro Manila Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte Surigao Del Sur Bulacan Romblon Bohol Misamis Oriental

32. HAZARD PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE Commonwealth and Scientific Research Organization 5.625º x 3.2º grids (2066-2095)

33. RISK (Temperature) Sulu Basilan Lanao Del Sur Maguindanao Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Zamboanga Del Sur Tawi-tawi Misamis Occidental Camiguin Siquijor Misamis Oriental Cebu Agusan Del Norte Zamboanga Del Norte Albay Sarangani Negros Oriental Negros Occidental Ifugao

34. HAZARD PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75º x 2.5º grids (2066-2095)

35. RISK (Rainfall Change) Albay Pampanga Ifugao Rizal Cavite Sorsogon Laguna Biliran Batangas Pangasinan Masbate Metro Manila Tarlac Nueva Ecija Northern Samar Aklan Capiz La Union Western Samar Romblon

36. HAZARD HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC-DDC-CRU 0.5º x 0.5º grids (1901-1990)

37. HAZARD DEFORESTATION Global DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

38. HAZARD MINING Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

39. Typhoons El Niño Earthquake EQ-Induced Landslides Volcano Tsunami Temperature Rainfall

40. In sum, harm’s way: Typhoon –Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east) Drought (El Nino) –Mindanao (central, west) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami –Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP Volcano –Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central) Climate Change –Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central) –Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)