1. Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa

2. Slide 2 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI Extremely Fantastic Intuition Extreme Forecast Index EFI is a measure of the difference between the ENS distribution and a model climate (M-climate) distribution.

3. Slide 3 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI 0 7 9 11 12 13… 12 0 9 7 13 11… Ordering 0 1 0 1 -10-50515102025-10-505151020 25 CDFPDF Probability of not exceeding Threshold Density per threshold Interval (normalised) model climate eps forecast parameter value

4. Slide 4 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Represented by pink lines below More weight to extremes of M-climate EFI = 78% M-climate EPS EFI takes no direct account of any EPS members beyond the M- climate extremes -1 ≤ EFI ≤ 1 -100% ≤ EFI ≤ 100% p

5. Slide 5 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF What can we say about CDFs of successive ENS runs? M-climate Successive ENS runs rank value Lateral variations in CDF position between successive runs are due to the model/flow uncertainty A steeper CDF implies higher confidence.

6. Slide 6 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+9

7. Slide 7 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9 D+10

8. Slide 8 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9D+10

9. Slide 9 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+216-240 >10 mm >20 mm

10. Slide 10 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+8

11. Slide 11 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

12. Slide 12 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

13. Slide 13 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+192-216 >10mm>20mm

14. Slide 14 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+8

15. Slide 15 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7D+8

16. Slide 16 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+7

17. Slide 17 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+168-192 >10mm>20mm

18. Slide 18 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+6

19. Slide 19 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+6

20. Slide 20 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+7

21. Slide 21 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+144-168 >10mm>20mm

22. Slide 22 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+5

23. Slide 23 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+5

24. Slide 24 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+6

25. Slide 25 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+120-144 >10mm>20mm

26. Slide 26 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+4

27. Slide 27 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+4

28. Slide 28 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+5

29. Slide 29 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+96-120 >10mm>20mm

30. Slide 30 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T+96-120 PrecipitationTemperature

31. Slide 31 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+3

32. Slide 32 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+3

33. Slide 33 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENSD+4D+3

34. Slide 34 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+72-96 >10mm>20mm

35. Slide 35 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T+72-92 PrecipitationTemperature

36. Slide 36 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+2

37. Slide 37 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+3D+2

38. Slide 38 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+48-72 >10mm>20mm

39. Slide 39 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T+48-72 PrecipitationTemperature

40. Slide 40 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+1

41. Slide 41 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+2 D+1

42. Slide 42 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T+24-48 >10mm>20mm

43. Slide 43 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T+24-48 PrecipitationTemperature

44. Slide 44 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+0

45. Slide 45 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T+00-24 PrecipitationTemperature

46. Slide 46 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI snow 96-120h72-96h 48-72h24-48h

47. Slide 47 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF M-Climate Precipitation - Q98 Temperature – Q2 Snow – Q98

48. Slide 48 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Verification

49. Slide 49 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observed Precipitation 25.07/06UTC-26.07/06UTC Observed Precipitation 26.07/06UTC-27.07/06UTC Durban

50. Slide 50 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

51. Slide 51 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

52. Slide 52 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

53. Slide 53 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

54. Slide 54 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

55. Slide 55 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow

56. Slide 56 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow, Forecast

57. Slide 57 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

58. Slide 58 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

59. Slide 59 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Hogsback, 1543m above sea level 0°C M-climate, snow