1. Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Terrance G Onsager and Rodney Viereck
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Space Weather Prediction Center

2. Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity
Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

3. Space Weather Information Needs
Information timeliness:
• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)
• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)
• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)
Space Weather Category:
• X-ray flares
• Solar energetic particle events
• Radiation belt electron enhancements
• Geomagnetic storms
• Ionospheric disturbances
• Neutral density variations

4. Status of Current Space Weather Products
M-flare and X-flare Probabilities
M-flare and X-flare Probabilities
X-ray Flux – Global and Regional
Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities
Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities
Proton and Electron Radiation – Global and Regional
Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities – Global and Regional
Geomagnetic Activity – Global and Regional
Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities
Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities
Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances – Global and Regional
Disturbance Probabilities – Global and Regional

5. Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms
DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)
Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
Magnetic field strength and direction L1
NASA ACE
ESA SOHO
● German Aerospace Center
● European Space Agency
● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan
● Radio Research Agency, Korea
● NOAA
● NASA
● U.S. Air Force

6. Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource
NASA STEREO
(Ahead)
Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around the globe
Ground Sites
Magnetometers
Riometers and Neutron
monitors
Telescopes and Magnetographs
Ionosondes
GNSS
SOHO (ESA/NASA)
Solar EUV Images
Solar Corona (CMEs)
COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)
Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles
Ionospheric Scintillation
ESA/NASA SOHO
ACE (NASA)
Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles
Vector Magnetic field L1
NASA ACE
NOAA GOES
NOAA POES
STEREO (NASA)
Solar Corona
Solar EUV Images
Solar wind
Vector Magnetic field
GOES (NOAA)
Energetic Particles
Magnetic Field
Solar X-ray Flux
Solar EUV Flux
Solar X-Ray Images
POES (NOAA)
High Energy Particles
Total Energy Deposition
Solar UV Flux
NASA STEREO
(Behind)
Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

7. ACE Satellite L1 Measurements
Solar wind
Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles
Vector Magnetic Field
The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting
Integral part of the daily forecast process
Provides critical minute lead time for geomagnetic storms
Used to drive and verify numerous models

8. NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget

9. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission
The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013
Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA
Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA
USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012
All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet)
DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished
A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission

10. Compact Coronagraph (CCOR)
NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph
A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11
CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design
6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor
Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs
CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits
CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up strategy if necessitated by schedule

11. COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2)
COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life)
Significant data reduction expected by due to loss of satellites
President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014
Proposed partnership with Taiwan –
Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control
NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing
System will provide worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land)
Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration

12. Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC)

13. GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P
GOES W XRS/SXI (Storage)
GOES W Storage
GOES W MAG/EPS
GOES W South America
GOES W Secondary Ops
GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT
EARTH
ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL.
EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE
MOON

14. GOES-R Status MPS-low: MPS-hi: SGPS EHIS Magnetometer
electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions
MPS-hi:
electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directions
Protons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions
SGPS
Protons MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions
EHIS
MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction
Magnetometer
Status
Just finished instrument CDR
Launch expected in 2015
Developing level 2 algorithms
Integral flux
Density and Temperature moments
Event detection
Magnetopause Crossings

15. New GEO particle product
SEAESRT
Implements O’Brien et al anomaly hazard quotients
Surface Charging
Based on Kp
Internal Charging
Based on GOES >2 MeV electron flux
Single Event Upsets
Based on GOES >30 MeV proton flux
Total Dose
Based on GOES >5 MeV proton flux
Publicly available 2010

16. Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI)
Completely Different than GOES NOP:
GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm)
SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm)
 Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures
30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions
6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range
SUVI will provide
Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness)
Active region complexity (Flare forecasting)
Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting)
SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:
comparable resolution
slower cadence
incomplete spectral coverage
SDO AIA provides improved proxy data:
16X as many pixels as SUVI
Higher cadence
image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly
SDO AIA 30.4 nm

17. GOES R EUVS Improvements
Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers
GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands
No spectral information
Difficult to interpret
Impossible to build
EUVS-
A Channel
EUVS-
B Channel
GOES R EUVS will take a different approach
Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers
Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere
Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere.
EUVS-
C Channel
GOES 14 Broad Bands
25.6 nm
28.4 nm
30.4 nm
117.5 nm
121.6 nm
133.5 nm
140.5 nm nm
278.5 nm

18. Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs
Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS):
SEMS will be continued through the end of the POES, DMSP, and Metop C
Solar Irradiance measurements are planned, energetic particle measurements are not planned

19. Seventh Framework Cooperation
Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS)
Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States
Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany
Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems
- Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements
- Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances
- Validation of forecast system
Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS)
Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States
Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London
Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.

20. Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research InfrastructuresAO
1962
JRO
1963 MH
SRF
1982
AMISR-Poker Flat
PFR 2007
RISR-N,S 2011
Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system
Modern ISR also allow continuous, real-time data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures
Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications

21. Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Motivation for WMO:
• Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System
• Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.)
• Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings
• Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency
• Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service
THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER
A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF
A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL
COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED
FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
April 2008

22. Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather
Officially established: 3 May 2010
WMO Programmes:
- Aeronautical Meteorology Programme
- Space Programme
Terms of Reference:
- Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through the WMO Information System (WIS)
- Harmonized definition of end-products and services – including quality assurance and emergency warning procedures
- Integration of Space Weather observations, through review of space- and surface-based requirements, harmonization of sensor specifications, monitoring observing plans
- Encouraging research and operations dialog
Membership:
- Belgium
- Brazil
- Canada
- China (Co-chair)
- Colombia
- European Space Agency
- Ethiopia
- Finland
- Japan
- International Civil Aviation Organization
- Int’l Space Environment Service
- International Telecommunication Union
- UN Office of Outer Space Affairs
- Russian Federation
- United Kingdom
- United States (Co-chair)

23. Summary
• Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe
• ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required.
• Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radio- occultation is anticipated.
• International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.