1. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme MEDEX research proposal (phase 1) Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France Andrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, Italy James Doyle, NRL, USA Klaus P. Hoinka, DLR, Germany Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece Climent Ramis, UIB, Spain Evelyne Richard, LA, France Antonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy And Members of MEDEX Advisory Group (*) jansa@inm.es

2. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme General objective of MEDEX: The improvement of knowledge and forecasting of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area Specific objectives (MEDEX phase 1, 2001-2004): (a) To implement a dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean, to know the types of cyclonic structures that appears related to high impact weather events, if any. This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases. (b) In order to develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones: determining and ranking the multiple geographical and meteorological factors that are acting in the generation and evolution of the different types of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. (c) The identification of sensitive areas where better initial conditions may likely lead to improved forecasts. Closely connected with the former objective is an assessment of the impact of additional observations in sensitive areas. Based on systematic data, covering every day along a period Based on selected cases

3. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Priority tasks for MEDEX phase 1 (according the WWRP/SSC Resolution about MEDEX, Sep. 2000) a. Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a MEDEX database. b. Identify a set of cases where high impact weather was poorly forecast and conduct co-ordinate, in-depth case studies that include considerations of forecast skill and societal impacts associated with both the event and the poor forecasts. c. Conduct NWP studies to identify sensitive areas where the addition of observations would most likely lead to improved forecasts and their related benefits. d. Conduct research to identify physical and dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of developing improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones.

4. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme According the specific objectives and the priority tasks, a Science Plan or Full Proposal for MEDEX phase 1 has been prepared, including a feasible schedule for the main activities 2001-1 st S2001-2 nd S2002-1 st S2002-2 nd S2003-1 st S2003-2 nd S2004-1 st S2004-2 nd S Selection of cases 1995-2000 Updating selection of cases (2001-2003) Establishment of the MEDEX database Collection of ordinary and additional data in the database Western Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002 Eastern Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002 Calendar of high impact weather events 1995-2002 Dynamic climatology of cyclones vs. high impact weather 1995-2002 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases MEDEX Meeting 2001 MEDEX Meeting 2002 MEDEX Meeting 2003 MEDEX Meeting 2004 Final report for MEDEX phase 1 Planning a possible second phase for MEDEX Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS

5. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 1 Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean Brief description: A systematic exploration of all the events of heavy rain or strong wind, above pre- defined thresholds, looking for identification and description of near cyclones potentially related to the event. Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including: Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather Location of cyclones related to high impact weather Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather Motivation: This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases.

6. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 1 Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.) Science basis: Hypothesis: Heavy rain: The close presence of a surface cyclone provides the warm and wet inflow which is necessary for sustaining heavy rain. This hypothesis needs to be verified and/or quantified. Strong wind: Intense surface cyclone implies strong surface wind. Low Present knowledge (concerning heavy rain): Many case studies of heavy rain show the close presence of a cyclone, but its role is not always analysed 12 January 1997 case-study (Kotroni & Lagouvardos)

7. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 1 Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.) Science basis (cont.): Few case studies specify how the location and intensity of the surface cyclone modulates the intensity and location of the heavy rain Statistical studies are only preliminary and referred to parts of the Western Mediterranean, where in 90% of around 900 events of heavy rain (>60 mm/day) there is a surface cyclone in the vicinity, mostly located according the aforementioned hypothesis. The aim now is generalising the preliminary statistical results and specifying the kind of cyclones which are related with heavy rain CONTROLSIMULATION DYNAMICAL CONTROL of PRECIP SIMULATION WITHOUT UPPER PV ANAOMALIES (Romero, Ramis & Alonso) MESOSCALE FORECAST LLJ AND MOIST TONGUE

8. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 1 Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.) Methodology: Calendar of events of heavy rain and/or strong wind over-passing pre-defined thresholds. Provided by participating institutions. Collected in the MEDEX Data Base. Data Base of cyclones. Objective detection and description, on the base of objective analyses. Data collected in the MEDEX Data Base. Cross-referencing the calendar of events and the data base of cyclones to obtain Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including: Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather Location of cyclones related to high impact weather Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather Data requirements: (summarised at the end of this presentation)

9. Data base of cyclones: The methodology already available permits the objective and automatic detection and description of cyclones. For example: Detection Tracking Domain: zero vorticity line

10. Vertical extension and tilting

11. Vertical profile of radius Vertical profile of circulation: A x ς Vertical thermal profile: ΔT Vertical profile of relative humidity

12. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones Investigate the physical role (in the formation and evolution of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) and model representation /assimilation of: orography surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat latent heat release upper level potential vorticity low level jets Sensitivity studies based on numerical experimentation on selected cases are recommended to investigate the role of the above 'factors' in different situations

14. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Selection of cases 1995-2000 (This work is a necessary step for Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors, as well as for Identification of sensitive areas). Present state: almost finished. The point of departure has been a Questionnaire submitted to the institutions that are participating in MEDEX. Selection criteria:   High impact weather (mainly precipitation and wind) associated with cyclones affecting the Mediterranean area   Poor forecast skill   Adverse societal impact and possible mitigation depending on forecast skill   Sensitivity to initial condition and meteorological model used   Data base accessible (meteorological non GTS data, documentation on adverse weather impact and losses)   Events affecting more than one country (to favour interactions)   Events associated with different cyclone types and representative of all the Mediterranean subregions

15. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Selection of cases 1995-2000 More then 80 events were suggested (17 institutions of 11 countries). 27 among them constitute the present pre-selection. The pre-selection has been made according the following criteria: 1. 1.Events affecting two or more contiguous countries. 2. 2.Severe impact weather events (affecting one country only). 3. 3.Additional events to ensure some degree of geographical 'balance'. NOTE: Information about societal impacts, degree of success of numerical forecasts and alerts is not always readily available, but a distinct progress was made in two iterations.

16. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme

18. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Geographical cover of selected events

19. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Forecasting problems: Selection of cases 1995-2000: emerged Forecasting problems: Forecast often difficult but skill gradually improving in time Heavy precipitation (and consequences, mainly floods and landslides, also snow) most important, but also strong winds (damages, navigation, storm surges…) Most of benefits from meteorological models (especially LAM's):, ECMWF, U.K.M.O., DWD (Europa, Lokall M.), ARPEGE, ALADIN, BOLAM, ETA, HIRLAM, LAMBO, MASS, MM5, RAMS...) Identification of problems limiting forecast skill.

20. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) 13/11/1999 00Z - ECMWF analysis BOLAM ECMWF Case study by Delitala et al. (SAR - Sardinia) (impact of high res. forecast of precip., also ensemble fc.)

21. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Case study by Romero et al. (UIB, Palma de M.) applying piecewise PV inversion technique PLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN STORMS Two rotating upper-level positive PV anomalies Strong low-tropospheric warm advection Track, shape and intensity of the surface cyclone and the corresponding rainfall pattern are very sensitive to the embedded upper-level PV anomalies

22. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Example of MEDEX-related activities at the National Observatory of Athens (Kotroni, Lagouvardos) 14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study

23. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases) Severe flood event of NW Italy, 13-16 Oct. 2000: example of hydrological-meteorological model coupling (ISAO Bologna, Univ. of Genova, Univ. of Brescia) Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm/96 hrs and 550 mm/48 hrs (14-15 Oct. 2000) Observed and hindcasted runoff at Toce Candoglia, using the DIMOSOP hydrological model, based on BOLAM forecasts for the period 2000-10- 13 to 200-10-17

24. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 3 Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases The objective is to identify areas where better initial conditions may lead to improved forecast of events of high impact weather connected with cyclones. The MEDEX project favours the case study approach on regional scale. The computation of sensitivities requires adjoint model code. In the case of the Mediterranean area, it is expected that diabatic processes will need to be included in the adjoint calculations. Preliminary to OSSE experiments and to identification of observational needs.

25. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme The EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were are the most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:

26. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme A particular day example of sensitive area (from ECMWF):

27. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Horizontal aspects After the presentation of the specific objectives of MEDEX, we move to some horizontal and practical aspects of the development of the project: 1. 1.The data requirements and management 2. 2.Societal benefits and impact assessment 3. 3.The scientific management of the project. 4. 4.Financing problems.

28. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme The data requirements and management : Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS Establishment of the MEDEX database Steps: 1. 1.Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily) 2. 2.Identification of available data (made, preliminarily) 3. 3.Implementation of the MEDEX database (under study the feasibility of implementation of the database in INM-Spain) MEDEX objectiveType of dataAreaDetails Dynamical climatology Rainfall and windInner MediterraneanAll peak values that overpass defined thresholds, since 1995. Analysed fieldsInner Mediterranean (at least)4 daily at standard levels, al least since 1995. Sensitivity to factors (validation) Rainfall and windInner MediterraneanAll data in the affected area for selected events only. Radar and other non- conventional Inner MediterraneanAll data in the affected area for selected events only. Impact of observations Upper air dataOuter Mediterranean (Eastern Atlantic incl.) All data in sensitive areas for selected events only. Surface dataOuter Mediterranean (mainly inner area) All data in sensitive areas for selected events only. 1. 1.Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)

29. Inner and outer Mediterranean area

30. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Identification of available data (made, preliminarily, from a Questionnaire) InstitutionRain. num.Wind num.Radar num. LighteningSynop num. Pilot num.Temp num. IM, Portugal 850802Yes60 INM, Spain 1381767Yes191 UB, Spain 17550 ONM, Algeria 29 4071 SAR, Sardinia 49271 INM, Tunisia 96341 ARPA-FVG, Italy 39251 ARPA-ER, Italy 80201 10 MHS, Croatia 487 2 2 NIMH, Bulgaria 387951 8 Cyprus MS 163101Yes IMS, Israel 4001201 CITA, Gailicia, Spain 22

31. P 80 W 20 RADAR 1 SYNOP 10 P 39 W 25 RADAR 1 SYNOP 25 P 387 W 95 RADAR 1 SYNOP 8 P 163 W 10 RADAR 1 LIGHT. P 400 W 120 RADAR 1 SYNOP 120 P 1381 W 76 RADAR 7 LIGHT. SYNOP 191 P 850 W 80 RADAR 2 LIGHT. SYNOP 60 P 29 W 29 SYNOP 40 PILOT 7 TEMP 1 P 49 W 27 RADAR 1 P 96 W 34 RADAR 1 P 175 W 50 non-GTS data availability P 487 W 2? RADAR 2 SYNOP 2 P 22 W 22 SYNOP 22

32. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Identification of available data: additional possibilities Surface winds from scatterometer Data from aircraft Common events from other projects: MAP, THORPEX, etc.

33. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Societal benefits and impact assessment Elements: 1. 1.Involvement of end users 2. 2.Impact of the research on society 3. 3.Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX 1. 1.Involvement of end users 1. 1.Most of the NWS and some regional weather services in the Mediterranean are involved in MEDEX 2. 2.Most of the weather services have close contact with civil defence, marine safety, hydrology,... organisms 3. 3. A few civil defence and marine safety services could be directly involved in MEDEX (in Spain they actually are)

34. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Societal benefits and impact assessment 1. 1.Impact of the research on society 1. 1.Better knowledge of the processes has to produce some degree of improved forecasting --> potential impact reduction (although not in the short time): 1. 1.through improvement in modelling 2. 2.through more refined conceptual models (better final forecasting) 2. 2.Better knowledge of forecasting skills and unaccuracies has to conduct to an improved risk management Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX MEDEX will try to incorporate information about the societal impact of the selected events (at least) in order to quantify the impacts associated to the phenomena concerned. MEDEX will try to evaluate the reduction of impact of hazardous weather after an hypothetical improvement of the prediction of the associated cyclones. This requires: To develop a tool for measuring the skill of NWP in forecasting cyclones (included in Specific Objective 2). To analyse the sensitivity of the final weather prediction to the accuracy of the forecasting of the associated cyclone

35. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Scientific management Elements 1. 1.Science Steering Committee for MEDEX 2. 2.Participating Institutions 3. 3.MEDEX Advisory Group 4. 4.MEDEX Permanent Centre Science Steering Committee for MEDEX Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France Andrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, Italy James Doyle, NRL, USA Klaus P. Hoinka, DLR, Germany Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece Climent Ramis, UIB, Spain Evelyne Richard, LA, France Antonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy

36. INM, Spain UIB, Spain IM, Portugal UB, Spain MM, Spain PC, Spain DMN, Morocco ONM, Algeria Meteo-France Meteo-Swiss Meteotrentino, Italy ARPA-FVG, Italy CIMA, Italy ARPA-ER, Italy ISAO, Italy DSTN, Italy UGM, Italy SAR, Italy U.Ferrara, Italy INM, Tunisia ICoD, Malta MHS, Croatia NIMH, Bulgaria NOA, Greece Turquish M.S. Cyprus M.S. TAU, Israel IMS, Israel Egytian M.A. UK Met.Office US Navy, NRL CITA, Galicia, Spain

37. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Financing problems It seems to us that WMO has to acquire a certain degree of commitment in locating some funds in support of a few representative participants from developing countries to facilitate their attendance in main MEDEX meetings. Although INM-Spain will try to undertake all the cost or most of the cost of the MEDEX Permanent Centre and of the MEDEX Data Base, some funds to finance the Data Base management could be necessary. The studies on the identification of sensitivity areas do need specific funding.

38. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Financing problems Concerning the studies of sensitivity foreseen in MEDEX, an alternative or complementary source of indirect financing could be the assumption of some of these studies by EUCOS (EUMETNET Composite Observing System programme), in its planning of scientific work. The support of EUMETNET to this assumption is seen as plausible, taking into account that several of the members of EUMETNET are also participating in MEDEX. The institutions that are participating in MEDEX are exploring possible sources of financing: In principle, the most plausible way could be the achievement of an optional project on MEDEX of the European Network of Meteorological Services (EUMETNET). An optional project of EUMETNET is financed by a group of members (meteorological services) that adhere to the project. The EUMETNET project on MEDEX would be mostly oriented towards the best implementation and operation of the MEDEX Data Base and to the performance of specific studies on sensitivity. INM- Spain could undertake the role of responsible member for such a project, although there are other possibilities, because other several members of EUMETNET, the national meteorological services of France, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, are also participant institutions in MEDEX.