1. Extreme Climate in the region: Gaps and Opportunities Erwin Makmur Climate Early Warning Subdivision, BMKG Lead of Working Group Climate Services, WMO RAV erwin.makmur@bmkg.go.id International Workshop on The Digitations of Historical Climate Data, The News SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region Citeko-Bogor, April 3, 2012

2. OUTLINE BACKGROUND CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITY SOUTHEAST ASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SEACOF): A Proposal SUMMARY

3. CLIMATE DRIVER FOR ASEAN COUNTRIES DM (+) LOCAL SST 1 1 2 2 El Nino La Nina DM (-) 3 3 In Fact: There are many climate drivers still not recognized  Prediction Accuracy???

4. WMO OPERATING PLAN FOR THE SIXTEENTH FINANCIAL PERIOD (2012-2015) –Expected Result 2: Enhanced capabilities of Members to reduce risks and potential impacts of hazards caused by weather, climate and water and related environmental elements –Expected Result 3: Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better weather, climate, water and related environmental information, predictions and warnings to support in particular climate impact and adaptation strategies.

5. Components of Framework for Climate Services GFCS

6. Disaster over the World Source: BNPB

7. Disaster over the World (1990-2005) Source: BNPB

8. DisasterOccurenceDeathNumber of Vulnerable People Flood2.6241.83711.943.017 Landslide1.1452.864458.760 Extreme Wind 925235151.214 Drought1.1520- Total5.8474.93612.552.991 Disaster Incident over Indonesia (1998-2009) Source: BNPB

9.  Disaster incident increase significantly  More than 70% caused by hydrometeorology  The Disaster trend is predicted increase due to the increasing of global climate change and the degradation of environment Trend of Disaster Incident over Indonesia Year 2002-2009 190 529 895 814 888 691 499 190 529 895 691 814 889 1306 1675 Source: BNPB

10. Role of NMHS for Supporting DRR Disaster Risk Reduction (FLOOD n DROUGHT) DISASTER MANAGEMENT (INSTITUTION INTERFACE) CLIMATE EARLY WARNING (NMHS) REDUCING SOUL AND ECONOMIC LOSS

11. ENHANCING CLIMATE EARLY WARNING COMPONENTS POWERFUL HARDWARE (COSTLY) DEVELOPMENT CLIMATE MODEL (EXTREME CLIMATE MODEL)

12. What is applied Climatology ? Agriculture Health … Hydropower CLIMATOLOGY

13. USERS What are needed to effectively manage climate risks? Weather/ Climate forecast/ prediction System Climate Information Production & Evaluation System Climate data observation/ generation and analysis system Communication and Dissemination System Communication and Dissemination System Communication and Dissemination System Ropelewski and Lyon (2003) in Boer (2009)

14. RA V STRATEGIC OPERATING PLAN (SOP) FOR 2012-2015 Correspond to these WMO global priorities. Better climate services; Sustainable aviation services; Capacity building; Improved infrastructure (data and information services) for weather, climate and water; and Improved end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS).

15. CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITY

16. State of the Art Climate Services Enhancing Accuracy of Climate Prediction (Including Extreme) Main IssueSupporting Trusted Data Man Power Research Tools and Models Derivation Flood Forecast Drought Forecast Crop Calendar Etc Dissemination

17. Climate Model Improvement: Extreme Climate Prediction Current Model (Statistic/Dynamic) Good accuracy during normal Condition Fact: Extreme Event occur frequently Needs: Extreme Climate Model Opportunity: Each Region member has own climate model Need to share through communication among forecasters Establishing ASEAN Models based on local knowledge

18. 雨量観測所 レーダ観測局 監視カメラ 水位観測所 Outline of Early Warning Systems in Japan 地方事務所 Local Office of Government 住民・自主防災会 洪水ハザードマップ Flood Hazard Map サイレン Siren 水防活動 Flood Fighting ?? Evacuation Recommendation / Order 避難勧告・指示 Water Level Observatory Rainfall Observatory Radar Surveillance camera ILUSTRATION: Outline of Flood Warning System in Japan Information of River 河川情報提供 ICHARM This system is very OK Question: How to implement for ASEAN Countries???

19. Southeast Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SEACOF) A Proposal Slides from RA V Regional Seminar Solomon, 2011

20. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A key component of WMO Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities. First established in October 1996 at the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe). Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event. RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide. WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion.

21. Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide SASCOF NEACOF EASCO F SEACOF ?!

22. RCOF Concept RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives. RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate prediction centres. Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks. RCOF sessions are expected to feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision- makers and the public.

23. Consensus Process in RCOFs: Mostly Subjective Assessment (conversation) Regional, seasonal Outlook (temp, rain, flows) Products ENSO State Climate patterns Average climate ENSO Climatology ENSO forecasts Global forecasts Statistical forecasts Background Forecasts Observations

24. 24 SEACOF Initiative (1/2) The potential for the development of a Southeast Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SEACOF) has been discussed recently on several platforms and its importance recognized. –President of RA V highlighted its need at the recent WMO Congress –WMO CLIPS Training Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction, Citeko, Indonesia (27 September – 7 October 2011) There is a general agreement that such a process will greatly enhance regional cooperation as well as more effective engagement of the user community. SEACOF will help consolidate the existing capacities in the region, and facilitate sustained and consistent approaches to operational climate prediction. This will need active participation of all the NMHSs in the sub-region including the associated multi-lateral entities (e.g., ASEAN, RIMES, etc.).

25. CLIPS Training, Citeko Oct 2011 Group Photo (after Opening Ceremony / Citeko, 27 September 2011) Participants, Local Organizer from BMKG, with Director General of BMKG Indonesia, High-level Officials of BMKG, Secretariat from WMO and Guest Lecturers

26. SEACOF Initiative (2/2) RA V Regional Seminar on Climate Services is requested to endorse the SEACOF concept, and facilitate broad based support. RA V Working Group on Climate Services meeting on 4 November will consider the implementation strategy for SEACOF, along with the RCC and RCOF implementation in RA V. Collaboration with RA II will also be required, to ensure the participation of RA II members of SEA. Subject to endorsement by all participating countries, we may work towards the first session of SEACOF in 2012. WMO Secretariat is requested to assist in the coordination of SEACOF preparatory phase, in close consultation with all the relevant stakeholders. SEACOF may initially have exclusive focus on the most important season common to most countries, and the needs for covering other aspects of the sub-regional climate can be addressed in due course.

27. Summary Activities should be realistic and reflect the needs of Region members Products of Climate Services must be consider the needs of user Southeast Asia has a great potential to benefit from the RCOF process, with most of the countries sharing a common climatic setting dominated by the monsoons and links with ENSO and very encouraging predictability Capacity development is important, need to accelerate

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29. RCOF Process (1/3) Meetings of the regional and international climate experts to develop a consensus for the regional climate outlook, typically in a probabilistic form; The Forum proper, that involves both climate scientists and representatives from the user sectors, for identification of impacts and implications, and the formulation of response strategies; Training programmes on seasonal climate prediction to strengthen the capacity of the national and regional climate scientists; Outreach sessions involving sector specialists as well as media experts to develop effective communications strategies.

30. RCOF Process (2/3) Determine the critical time for development of climate prediction for the region in question; Assemble a group of experts: –Large scale prediction specialists, –regional and local climate applications and prediction/downscaling specialists, –stakeholders representative of climate-sensitive sectors; Review current large scale (global and regional) climate anomalies and the most recent predictions for their evolution; Review current climate conditions and their impacts at local, national and regional levels, and national-scale predictions;

31. RCOF Process (3/3) Considering all factors, produce a climate outlook with related output (e.g. maps of temperature and precipitation anomalies) that will be applied and fine- tuned by NMHSs in the region to meet national needs; Discuss applications of the outlook and related climate information to climate-sensitive sectors in the region; consider practical products for development by NMHSs; Develop strategies to effectively communicate the information to decision-makers in all affected sectors; Critique the session and its results: –document achieved improvements to the process and any challenges encountered, –Establish steps required to further improve the process for subsequent sessions.

32. RCOFs and Food Security Outlooks Regional agriculture and food security outlooks are now regularly produced based on the climate outlooks after the RCOFs in some regions. For example, the climate outlook in the Greater Horn of Africa in the form of precipitation for March to May 2008 has been used by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS- NET), to prepare the Food Security Outlook for March to July 2008.

33. 33 RCOFs and Public Health Many diseases are indirectly or directly associated with climate. Vector-borne diseases are sensitive to changes in meteorological parameters such as rainfall, temperature, wind and humidity. These include malaria, dengue and Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Extreme climate events can trigger rampant outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid in areas where they are not common. Some efforts are now being made to provide warning of changes in epidemic risk by integrating rainfall, temperature and other non-climate information. For example, Malaria Outlook Forums (MALOFs) are now regularly held in association with RCOFs in southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa. The information developed jointly by climate and health experts in these sessions, together with information on population vulnerability, food security, immuno-suppression and adequacy of control coverage, gives the health community a longer lead-time over which to optimize the allocation of the resources available to combat malaria.

34. 34 WMO and RCOFs WMO assists developing countries hold and benefit from these forums through CLIPS: –facilitating training workshops, –coordinating the collection and dissemination of training materials, –capacity building initiatives including some initial (limited) financial support, and –coordination of special applications to sectors (e.g. health and agriculture) WMO RCCs and other regional institutions play leading roles in the organization and overall implementation of these forums WMO GPCs provide key inputs and strong technical support to RCOFs NMHSs, the regions and the users of the products must contribute to the sustainability of COFs in the regions: demonstrate utility of the forums and value of the products to those who need the information Research capacities at the regional level need to be enhanced, to assess the forecast skills as well as to work towards their improvement WMO promotes strong sub-regional ownership and sustainability of the RCOF process

35. 35 Concluding Remarks Climate-related risk management requires regional and multi-disciplinary collaborations and exchange of information. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability through improved access to climate information and prediction products. RCOFs have fostered interactions and exchange of information between the climate scientists and users of climate information. Southeast Asia has a great potential to benefit from the RCOF process, with most of the countries sharing a common climatic setting dominated by the monsoons and links with ENSO and very encouraging predictability. Capacity building at the national level, in operational climate prediction, is a major challenge to be addressed in the SEACOF process SEACOF needs to bring greater attention to user aspects.