1. Volcanic Ash - developments since 2010 © Crown copyright Met Office Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation, June 2014

2. London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) © Crown copyright Met Office The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated centre, responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland and the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic.

3. Lessons learned Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics) Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations to verify forecasts What are we forecasting? (leading to new Visible/discernible ash definitions) Need for operators to assume responsibility for safe operation in contaminated airspace © Crown copyright Met Office

4. MoU Steering Group Volcanic Ash Stakeholder Mapping VAAC London, ADAQ & Observations: Satellite, Obs Programme, OBR VAAC London, ADAQ & Observations: Satellite, Obs Programme, OBR MET OFFICE ICAO led IAVWOPSG ICAO led IAVWOPSG IUGG/WMO VASAG IUGG/WMO VASAG CAA led UK VAAG CAA led UK VAAG DfT led VAORG DfT led VAORG EuroControl/EC EACCC EuroControl/EC EACCC Green box: UK Met Office Blue star: Groups Grey box: External Organisations and groupings Organisation belonging to linked grouping SAGE/ COBR SAGE/ COBR IATA (Airlines) IFALPA (Pilots) CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators) CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators) NATS European ATM Community European ATM Community ICAO ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries) ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries) Met & Atmospheric Agencies e.g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET Met & Atmospheric Agencies e.g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET Volcano Observatories Volcano Observatories IMO Research Centres/ Academia Research Centres/ Academia NCAS BGS VAACs EU Programmes & Activities e.g. EUMETSAT, ESA, EUFAR, EASA EC UK Civil aviation Cabinet Office OEMs Defence

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Cloud Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer Aircraft Lidar Satellite Sun Photometer Radar Enhanced Volcanic ash Observations

6. © Crown copyright Met Office National and European Ceilometer & Lidar Networks  Met Office LIDARNET

7. Improved Volcanic ash modelling All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on meteorological data and ash observations “Eruption Source Parameters” include start time, height, location, mass eruption rate and the variation of these with time (from Iceland Met Office) Met Office Global NWP is used for volcanic ash applications Moving to 17 km resolution in July 1.5km grid Up to 36hr 6-hourly update 25km grid Up to 144hr 6-hourly update

8. Resuspended Ash Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME Daily resuspended ash forecast produced for Iceland Met Office since late 2010 Work with Bristol University on a resuspended ash event in August 2013 (paper submitted)

9. © Crown copyright Met Office The VAAC Process VAAC chart Volcano data Met Office Weather forecast models Weather observations NAME dispersion model Other models Forecaster Satellite + other observations

10. © Crown copyright Met Office New forecasting tools and products Annotated satellite images – used in daily Science/CAA briefing during an eruption Concentration charts

11. Conclusion Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored and forecasts of ash movement are issued. Met Office will utilise dispersion models to understand how any volcanic ash will move in the atmosphere. Met Office will communicate this information to all airspace users utilising agreed products. But it is operators that determine safe operations in contaminated airspace through their Safety Risk Assessments.