2. Maritime Sovereignty, Security and Natural Hazards
Andreas Schiller, CSIRO Alexander Babanin, Swinburne University and Contributing Authors

3. Contents Propositions Introduction & Definitions Scope Science Needs
Bathymetric Mapping
Natural Hazards
Monitoring and Forecasting
Propositions
Deep water domain
Continental shelf
Littoral zone & coastline

4. Australia’s total area of maritime responsibility: 14% of the
world’s oceans
3rd largest EEZ
Refer to Australian SAR region (MH370).

5. Sovereignty, Security and Safety
Sovereignty… means a state or a governing body has the full right and power to govern itself without any interference from outside sources or bodies
Security is the degree of resistance to, or protection from, harm
Safety is… the condition of being protected against… types or consequences of… which could be considered non-desirable
by Wikipedia
Safety and Natural Hazards:
Safety can also be defined to be the control of recognized hazards to achieve an acceptable level of risk
This can take the form of being protected from the event or from exposure to something that causes health or economical losses
It can include protection of people or of possessions.
by Wikipedia

6. Definitions littoral zone
Definition: for the purpose of this paper we will regard the ocean as a spatial and temporal continuum from the deepwater to the estuaries and on time scales from hours to weeks. Some specific science challenges require a more detailed definition like “coastal” which can be defined as covering domains from the upper continental shelf into the head of estuaries, that is, the part of the ocean that is significantly affected by tides. A sub-region to “coastal” is the very nearshore or littoral zone, which can be approximately described as that part of the ocean where the effects of surface waves are felt at the sea bed (with the potential to cause significant sediment resuspension).

7. Scope Maritime sovereignty, national security and safety:
require accurate information about ocean, atmosphere and hazard domains
support prediction, prevention, mitigation and compliance activities
scales: global to littoral zone & weeks to hours

8. Users of Information Offshore Industry
Short-term
needs reliable metocean hind- and forecasts
design criteria include 1/10000 years events, requires robust and accurate models
Long-term
will advance to hundreds of kilometers offshore and to oceanic depths
understanding of subsurface dynamics
Coastal engineering, aquaculture and fisheries, shipping, tourism, recreational boating, …
Governments: Emergency Services, Defence, EPAs, …

9. Research Community Universities, e.g. Swinburne, UNSW, UTas, UWA, …
dedicated funding for research programs (ARC)
dedicated teaching programs in marine science
Leading federal and state government R&D providers: AIMS, BoM, CSIRO, DSTO, GA, SARDI, …
mission-driven, multidisciplinary and operational (BoM)
creating opportunities for Australian research students and graduates

10. Linkages With Other NMSC Themes
Infrastructure
Energy security
Marine
Sovereignty,
Security &
Safety
Urban coastal environments
Food security
Optimal resource allocation
Biodiversity conservation
and ecosystem health
Dealing with changing climate
Themes: Grand Challenges, and cross-cutting issues
MSSS supports all other themes by providing information about the state of the ocean: physical, biogeochemical and hydrographic information (+ sediments/morphodynamics [interaction seafloor-hydrodynamics] in littoral zone)
Because of close links between this theme and others there is some overlap in science needs.
1. Sovereignty, security, natural hazards: enhancing operational oceanographic forecasting, increased effort on fine-scale hydrographic data and charts
2. Energy security: support for developing energy resources, particularly liquid natural gas and renewable energy, and mapping and modelling to find and develop carbon sequestration
3. Food security: research to support a booming aquaculture industry, data and tools to manage wild-catch fisheries better
4. Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem
health: support to describe biodiversity in unexplored areas, develop functional understanding of ecological communities of seabed and water column habitats to find and develop national efforts in environmental monitoring, and
development of tools to predict the nature and consequences of changes in biodiversity as a result of human intervention
Dealing with changing climate: refine understanding of the impacts of sea level rise,
increasing sea temperature, the role of the ocean as a carbon sink and ocean acidification
to support government efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Links with MSSS:
extreme events/natural hazards.
6. Optimal resource allocation: address critical policy and management issues by integrating social, economic and environmental information and developing tools and skills to assist in transparent, robust and accountable decision-making.
7. Urban coastal environments: managing coastal development and the built marine environment; ecosystem health and human impacts in an urban context; identifying and improving low impact shipping, dredging, fishing, waste disposal and recreational processes; integrating diverse and localised research and end user communities on a national scale.
8. Infrastructure: Vessels, Observing System
(in-situ, satellite), e-Research (data, compute, tools, networks), Experimental Facilities

11. Bathymetric Mapping
Australia’s continental shelf almost completely defined
(“Legal Continental Shelf”). Exceptions:
Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT)
Joey Rise at north-western corner of Exmouth Plateau
Williams Ridge, part of Kerguelen Plateau
Coastline and Territorial Sea Baseline: comprehensive mapping
program underway (GA, State Govt’s, AHS). Scale: 1:1000
But significant gaps exist in high-resolution bathymetric data:
e.g. Great Barrier Reef is least well mapped area of Australian jurisdiction
 needed for many scientific & operational applications, e.g. inundation forecasting
Collection of multibeam data, shallow seismic and sub-bottom profiler data on the AAT slope and rise should be supported as a national interest activity, since it contributes to any possible future examination of Australia’s national shelf and demonstrates Australia’s ongoing commitment the Antarctic.
Bathymetric cover of the reef should be priority, by LADS (Laser Airborne Depth Sounder) or satellite bathymetry. Poor tidal modelling of the GBR also has an impact on the operational envelope of vessels that need to enter these areas.
Key to understanding the tsunami potential, is to determine landslide movement velocity, which requires long-term monitoring of seabed movement.

12. Natural Hazards
Natural hazards are severe and extreme weather and climate events that occur naturally in all parts of the world, although some regions are more vulnerable to certain hazards than others
Natural hazards become natural disasters when people's lives and livelihoods are destroyed
by WMO

13. Marine Hazards in Deep Water
Destructive winds
for example, tropical cyclones
Large, steep and breaking waves
can reach more than 10 m in mean wave height
Rogue waves
at least twice as high as the mean waves, unexpected
Wave-current interactions
steepen the waves, cause rogue waves
Understanding & prediction, deep water:
Not everything is due to the storms (rogue waves, currents)
Tropical cyclones – missing physics, lack of measurements
Rogue waves – very rare, most destructive. Statistics unreliable, sound physical models needed
Wave-current interactions – last element of loose physics in wave models

14. Marine Hazards in Coastal Domain
Large waves
Rogue waves
Rip currents
Coastal erosion
Storm surges
Sea level rise
Tsunamis
Understanding and prediction, coastal:
Not everything is due to the storms
Rogues waves, rip currents – not predicted. Cause of deaths of rock fishermen, beach goers
Storm surge – prediction needs improvement: coupling with wave models; breaking of waves modifies currents (additional to wind stress)
Storm surges, coastal erosion are likely to increase in the sea level rise scenario
Tsunamis are a low threat, but Australia has regional responsibilities

15. Marine Subsurface Hazards
Abnormal currents
can be two orders of magnitude greater than the mean
Internal waves
Underwater landslides: tsunamis
Poorly understood, not predicted
Threats of failure or damage for offshore
industry, underwater pipelines, submarine
operations
Abnormal currents created by, e.g.,
Interactions of tides with surrounding currents (e.g. in topographically confined areas)
Density/turbidity currents near the sea floor

16. Marine Biological Hazards
Algal blooms
Coral bleaching
Invasive species
Can be accelerated, enhanced or initiated by changes
to the geophysical environment, such as
tropical cyclones over the Great Barrier Reef
global warming

17. Marine Hazards: Science Issues
Common topics: interaction of wind, waves and currents,
landslides/tsunamis and sea level rise (& biological hazards)
General science questions:
Climatological: what is the general nature of wave and current patterns and how do these vary in time?
Operational: what impact will present and predicted waves and currents have on specific activities?
Design: what is the statistical character and probability of extreme winds, waves and currents and how might these impact coastal ocean infrastructure and adjacent settlements?

18. Marine Hazards: Science Approach
Statistical approaches and extrapolations are not reliable for
rare and extreme events
Fundamental research into the nature of hazards and
extremes
Physical modelling of extreme events
Observations:
In situ observations, consistent and long-term
Remote sensing, satellites, aircraft, radars
Dedicated observations within the natural extreme
environments and events
Approach:
Define mean values and trends
Identify extreme and unexpected properties and events
Fill the gaps in observations
Fundamental research and process studies
Integrated/coupled modelling
Identify priorities and fast track for operational implementation of the priorities

19. National Security
INDESO,
Indonesia
“The operational Navy requires accurate ocean and wave predictions to support Search and Rescue, anti-piracy initiatives, route planning, mine warfare, anti-submarine warfare, and amphibious operations.”
Allard et al., 2014 (US Naval Research Laboratory)
Navy:
From the special issue of Oceanography on the US Navy Operational Models
Recent example of Rapid Transition to Production projects: regional tropical cyclone model; surge and inundation capability for storms
The future (10 years):
coupled models along with greater reliance on ensembles (ocean-wave, ocean-ice, air-wave, air-ocean-ice-wave)
longer forecasts (out to seasonal predictions) of ocean currents, thermal structure, waves, ice cover and atmospheric conditions
High-impact forecast modeling system for use nationwide, operational by 2018

20. Scale of information provided by BLUElink tools
Beach
Seamless prediction across scales from global to ocean basin, regional to shelf and down to beach.
Eddy rich ocean from global down to local scales, changing over days down to hours on the beach.

21. Ocean and Wave Hind- & Forecasting
Global Ocean Modelling and Data Assimilation
NRT Ocean Analysis
Regional Modelling
and Data Assimilation
(plus Littoral Ocean Modelling)
Ocean Reanalysis
Bluelink partnership (BoM, CSIRO, RAN) has delivered a world-class ocean forecasting system.
Bluelink is the only global to regional scale ocean forecasting system in the southern hemisphere among a handful of systems which cover these scales like the UK MetOffice, US Navy and Mercator Ocean (France).
Run operationally by the BoM and supported by CSIRO.
Provides robust service to meet needs of regional and industry users as well as Navy’s specific operational requirements to ensure efficiency and safety of defence activities.
BoM: operational ocean forecasting and public service delivery 21

22. Modelling and Forecasting for Security: International Status
“Future versions of COAMPS [US Navy Coastal Ocean-Atmosphere Modelling and Prediction System] represent the first successful step toward a fully coupled modelling environment, where exchanges between the ocean, atmosphere, ice, land, hydrosphere, biosphere, and space occur in real time.”
Bub et al., 2014 (US Naval Oceanographic Office)
US Navy schedule 2016: (1/25)o [~ 4 km at Equator] operational global ocean forecasting system
US Naval Office: Earth Systems model for shorter time scales

23. Modelling and Forecasting for Security: National Challenges
Australia:
Need for nationally coordinated approach in coastal ocean predictions, including the ability
to quantify contemporary and future coastline variability
Bluelink: resource limitations – imminent risk of losing connection to leading-edge science;
dependence on overseas systems (global-regional-littoral)
R&D required:
coupled ocean-wave-ice-atmosphere-biogeochemical (incl. nutrients and carbon module)
global explicit tides
enhanced data assimilation (ensemble prediction), e.g. HF radar, sea-ice,
biological/biogeochemical observations
routinely produced error estimates
up-to-date production of ocean reanalyses

24. Propositions (1)
Comprehensive national bio-physical-sediment observing system, from deep water to coastal to littoral zone, in situ and remote sensing. National database, ongoing and consistent
e.g. dense (nation-wide) coastal HF-radar network to observe currents and waves for research, forecasting services and border security applications
Short-to-medium range (days to weeks) uncoupled and coupled atmosphere/ocean/ice /waves/land/biogeochemical models in forecast and reanalysis mode, from deep water to coastal to littoral zone, initialised by observations
Utilising and tailoring overseas experiences and expertise wherever possible and appropriate
Some or parts of above recommendations are already being addressed through, e.g., AODN, IMOS etc.

25. Time Scales: Shelf-Scale Monitoring & Modelling
0-5 years:
Improve modelling and understanding of processes and interactions of physical
& biogeochemical parameters on continental shelf scales
Continue to leverage existing international efforts such as GODAE OceanView,
CLIVAR and IMBER
5-10 years:
Sustained marine observing systems
Develop and implement hazard impacts prediction services, building on knowledge
Develop and implement fully coupled atmosphere/ocean/waves/bottom/coast
modelling, high resolution, with assimilation of, e.g., in-situ data, coastal radar
systems and satellite observations
Development and implementation of coastal ocean interpretative tools to facilitate
user uptake (linked to global and littoral zone tools)
20 years:
Operationally sustain marine observing and forecasting/reanalyses systems

26. Propositions (2)
Increasingly, service delivery to private and public sector key to uptake
Establish Centre of Excellence on Marine Extreme Events (related to White Paper about “Establishment of a national coastline observatory facility”); fill gap between TERN & IMOS (littoral zone)
National Committee for short-term fast track priority implementation, between government, research community, industry, Navy etc.

27. Summary
Enhance capabilities in national hydrographic, operational oceanographic and marine hazard forecasting, including coastal and littoral zone components
Monitoring, analyses and forecasting of deep water, ocean waves, tsunamis, cyclones etc. require long-term commitments to meet growing public and private sector requirements (e.g. growing populations in coastal margins)
Aspirations need to be supported by
- a wide range of observations and
- national computational infrastructure
to feed into forecasting and compliance systems

28. Andreas Schiller, CSIRO Alexander Babanin, Swinburne University
Thank you!
Andreas Schiller, CSIRO
Alexander Babanin, Swinburne University
Acknowledgements: contributing authors; photos: Will Drennan, George Forristal, Victor Shrira, SMH, anonymous