2. Launching the Argo Armada An array of profiling floats to observe the global oceans ….in real time A presentation to the Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology June 25, 2001 by Stan Wilson, NOAA,

3. Many people and institutions have contributed to this presentation. They include: Howard Freeland, Dean Roemmich, Muriel Cole, Russ Davis, Mike Johnson, Kuh Kim, Syd Levitus, Tim Liu, Breck Owens, Steve Piotrowicz, Steve Riser, Alf Simpson, Uwe Send, Detlef Stammer, Jon Turton, Frank Wentz, and the International Argo Science Team. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Marine Environment Data Service, National Geographic Magazine, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Webb Research, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. For more information:

4. We are entering a new era in ocean observations. 1870 - 1970 The Century of Undersampling 1970 - 2000 Transition to Large Programs -- MODE, NORPAX, WOCE, TOGA… -- Satellites as an observational tool -- Modeling as an observational complement -- Recognition of El Niño as a global issue

5. We are entering a new era in ocean observations. 1870 - 1970 The Century of Undersampling 1970 - 2000 Transition to Large Programs 2000 - Global & Operational Programs -- WCRP/CLIVAR, GODAE, Argo…. -- GCOS, GOOS…. -- WMO/IOC JCOMM -- Ocean.US

6. We have a capability to observe the sea surface--globally & ~synoptically.

8. Courtesy of Rosanna Sumagaysay-Aouda, JPL and NASA, NOAA, PO.DAAC, RSMAS We have a capability to observe the sea surface-- globally & ~synoptically.

9. We do not have a corresponding capability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean. Ship tracks for ~20,000 WOCE Stations taken from 1990 to 1998.

10. We do not have a corresponding capability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean. 6,316 BATHY & TESAC reports collected in real time during December, 2000.

11. Argo will cover the global oceans with 3,000 profiling floats.

12. An Argo float can be thought of as an ‘oceanographic radiosonde’. Courtesy of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

14. Argo will supply the following properties globally, in real-time, and without restriction. Temperature and salinity profiles.

15. Argo will supply temperature & salinity profiles every 10 days.

16. Argo will supply the following properties globally, in real-time, and without restriction. Temperature and salinity profiles. Velocity estimates.

17. Argo will supply drift information, hence velocity estimates. Float parking depth ~800m; tails are 50 days in length. Courtesy of Howard Freeland.

18. Velocity information can be separated into deep and shallow estimates.

20. While some floats may ground on shoaling topography, some skip over it. Float parking depth ~1,000 m; sill depth in Tsugaru Strait ~140m. Courtesy of Howard Freeland and Kuh Kim.

21. Argo will supply the following properties globally, in real-time, and without restriction. Temperature and salinity profiles. Velocity estimates. From these, the time-varying ocean circulation--at the broad scale, not mesoscale--can be determined. In effect, Argo will be a Real-Time Upper-Ocean WOCE.

22. Argo will have many applications. Improved seasonal/interannual forecasts.

23. We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to produce El Niño/La Niña-based forecasts

24. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation

26. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation 1947-1976 1977-1997 Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

27. North Atlantic Oscillation (or the North Atlantic expression of the Arctic Oscillation)

28. Potential Wintertime Predictability for Temperature Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center

29. Tropical Atlantic Variability Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

30. Correlation of dominant modes of variability of SST and Precipitation in & around Australia (Based on the analysis of a 40-year record) Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

31. Courtesy of Toshio Yamagata, U of Tokyo Correlation between Rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index

32. Argo will have many applications. Improved seasonal/interannual forecasts. Understanding the influence of the oceans on hurricanes

34. Blue = 0 m/s, Orange = 12 m/s; Courtesy of Tim Liu, Hua Hu, and Wenqing Tang, JPL

35. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Courtesy of Frank Wentz and Chelle Gentemann, RSS

37. Argo will have many applications. Understanding climate change in the oceans. Improved seasonal/interannual forecasts. Understanding the influence of the oceans on hurricanes.

38. Warming of the World Ocean Courtesy of: Sydney Levitus, National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA

40. When can we achieve the 3,000-float array? Assuming 90% of the floats live four years (the other 10% fail early), it is necessary to provide floats at a sustained rate of 825 per year. Funding for Argo floats by year: FY99 -- 55 FY00 -- 255 FY01 -- 535 FY02 -- 703 (proposed) We could achieve global coverage by the end of 2005.

41. International Commitments for Argo Floats.

42. What does Argo cost? Each float costs approximately $25 K over a 4-yr life (including hardware, deployment & data management) Cost per profile ~ $25K / (36 profiles/yr x 4 yrs) ~ $170 (similar XBT cost per profile ~ $100) Cost of the 3,000-float array ~ $20 M / year

43. We are seeking national commitments to operational global ocean observing systems. An essential element is building national consensus, bridging between different agencies in each nation: research and operational oceanic and atmospheric civilian and Naval weather and climate space and in-situ

44. WMO & IOC have endorsed/accepted Argo... As an important component of the operational observing system of GOOS and GCOS. As a major contribution to CLIVAR and other research programs. Assuming that the data and derived products from Argo floats are... “freely available in real-time and delayed mode”

45. The IOC Resolution states: -- “as with existing surface drifting buoys some…[floats]...may drift into waters under national jurisdiction [ie, an EEZ]…” -- “…concerned coastal states must be informed in advance...of all deployments of...floats which might drift into [their] waters…” -- The IOC Resolution was silent concerning the issue of deployment of floats within EEZs.

46. How will we co-ordinate deployments? Argo Information Centre established under JCOMM Mathieu Belbéoch hired as full-time Technical Coordinator to provide services for Argo, just as they are for DBCP & SOOP AIC to provide notification for, and assist with, float deployments http://argo-forum.jcommops.org

47. What are the Argo Implementation Planning Meetings? Pacific Ocean -- Tokyo, April 13-14, 2000 Atlantic Ocean -- Paris, July 10-11, 2000 Indian Ocean -- Hyderabad, July 26-27, 2001

48. Deployment plans for 2001 compared with EEZ coverage in the western Pacific.

49. Consensus Approach for Deployment in the Central & Western Pacific The Float-Providing Countries will: Provide advance notice of plans for ships & aircraft coming into the collective EEZ of the Pacific Island Region for float deployment Provide assistance identifying and linking with operational forecast centers which will generate forecasts using Argo data. The Pacific Island Nations will: Concur with plans for ships & aircraft coming into the collective EEZ of the Pacific Island Region for float deployment.

50. 135 Argo floats are already in the water.

51. CA-46 US-16 JP-19 JP-13 RoK-10 JP-4 PRC-10 US/CORC-55 US-78 RoK-10 US-12 US-5 NZ-2 US-15 UK-15 IN-6JP-10 AU-20 GE-10 US-50 CA-6 US-16 EU-15 FR-10 GE-10 US-10 GE-7 EU-15 UK-13 UK-5 DK-5 Funded Argo floats to be deployed in 2001.

52. Planned deployments in 2002. CA-46,12 US-16 JP-19,15 JP-13,50 RoK-10,10 JP-4,35 PRC-10,25 PRC-5 US-15 US/CORC-55 US-78,65 RoK-10, 10 US-12 US-5,5 NZ-2,3 US-15,15 UK-15 IN-6,25JP-10,15 UK-25 AU-20,10 US-40 GE-10 US-20 UK-10 FR-35 GE-10 US-50,30 FR-10 CA-6,8 US-16,20 EU-15,25 FR-10,20 GE-10,5 US-10 GE-7 EU-15,20 UK-13 UK-5 DK-5 GE-20

53. How will we deploy in remote areas? Floats can be packaged for lowering over the side of a vessel while underway. Courtesy of Steve Riser, U. of Washington.

54. Courtesy of Sylvie Pouliquen, IFREMER Floats can also be launched over the side using a protective cover. How will we deploy in remote areas?

55. Or they can simply be lowered into the water …weather permitting. How will we deploy in remote areas? Courtesy of Howard Freeland, DFO

56. How will we deploy in remote areas? Courtesy of Jon Turton, UK Met Office. The “burial at sea” approach to float deployment while a ship is underway.

57. How will we deploy in remote areas? Movie courtesy of Webb Research, Falmouth, Mass. Floats have been certified for deployment from C-130 aircraft.

58. What have we learned from WOCE floats? Indian Ocean Trajectories from Non-Profiling Floats @ 1000-m depth 25-day steps Jan 95 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

59. What have we learned from WOCE floats? Labrador Sea Trajectories from Temperature-Profiling Floats @ 600 & 1400 m 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

60. What have we learned from WOCE floats? Mixed Layer Depth Deepest Blue 1,000 m or more 600 & 1400 m 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

61. How we get the data back. Real-time data via GTS within 24 hours Scientific data via Internet within 3 months

62. Argo and Jason are two elements of a broader concept. GODAE Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Jason will be launched in mid-September from Vandenberg AFB

63. In addition to existing systems, we will need complementary in-situ observations from fixed Time-Series Observatories. Courtesy of Uwe Send, IfM Kiel.

64. Where are we headed? GODAE The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Images courtesy of Detleff Stammer, Scripps Inst. of Oceanography

65. Our long-term goal: a comprehensive operational system for observing the global oceans.

66. From Mark Trail, September 26, 1999