1. Vulnerability to Climate Change
Habiba Gitay
World Bank Institute
The World Bank

2. IPCC – defines vulnerability as
The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

3. Climate change has many characteristics and affects countries in many ways

4. Impacts - already occurring – low income countries most affected
Drought
Flood
Storm
Sea-level rise
Impact on Agriculture
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Vietnam
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Cambodia
Tunisia
Mali
Mozambique
Moldova
Indonesia
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Morocco
Pakistan
Haiti
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Chad
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Middle income countries
Low income countries

5. Proportion of people affected by climate related disasters5

6. People affected by floods and droughts in Africa6

7. Major development sectors affected/vulnerable
Water – its availability
Agriculture – options to reduce adverse impacts
Urban - Direct – e.g. heat-waves, flooding
- Indirect – e.g. rural to urban migration
Infrastructure – Damage and decreased lifespan
Coastal – Storm surge, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion
Natural systems – Damage, failure to regenerate (e.g. after frequent fires)

8. Agriculture: Impacts Are Likely to Worsen Over Time – additional challenges and vulneabilities
Percentage change in agricultural yields between now and 2050
Source: WDR 2010

9. Health impacts by 2040
By 2030
Increased mortality due to malnutrition, infectious and respiratory diseases, vector and water borne diseases, heat related diseases in many parts of the world 9 9

10. Scarcity of natural resources and climate Change could lead to migration and conflict and there are hotspots
WBG 2007

11. Innovation in Carbon Finance: Biocarbon Fund
Costa Rica: Coopeagri Forestry Project
The project reimburses farmers for environmental services of biodiversity protection as a result of reforestation.
Payments will be complemented with the income from the carbon sales.
At least 600 farmers in 38 rural communities are currently associated with Coopeagri, a cooperative of coffee, sugar cane farmers who have agreed to introduce forestry production activities in their farms.
The project is expected to sequester around 0.56Mt C02e by 2017.

12. Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
First operational program under the Strategic Climate Fund: $967million in grants and IDA-like resources
Purpose
To help highly vulnerable countries pilot and demonstrate ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning while complementing other ongoing activities.
Participating countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia,
Regional Programs: Caribbean (Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines) and South Pacific (Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga)
Example: Cambodia
Technical support for mainstreaming climate resilience
Piloting vulnerability assessments and investments on an ecosystem basis
Strengthening data collection on climate risks
Promoting participation of the private sector and civil society

13. Working together to reduce poverty and vulnerability
Different countries affected differently now and in future
Climate change is an added stress - pushes them over the edge
Marginalised groups - often face multiple stresses – are most vulnerable
Reducing poverty will have multiple benefits including decreasing vulnerability to climate change
Your parliamentary functions – representative, legislative, oversight – and your leadership role in and out of parliament are critical
MPs can share knowledge amongst themsleves and develop guidance to fast track the much needed policies and strategies 13

14. Integrate climate change as part and parcel of sustainable development
“Climate change policies cannot be the frosting on the cake of development; they must be baked into the recipe of growth and social development”
Robert Zoelick, President, The World Bank 14