1. Country Analysis Part 2 ElsenburgA.G. Partridge THE AFRICA AGENDA 06 November 2013

2. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Overview Areas of Analysis: Economy Governance Population Infrastructure Investment Trade Agriculture Technology & Innovation Consumption Water Country Focus SADC Angola Mozambique Zambia East Africa Kenya Tanzania West Africa Nigeria Ghana North Africa Egypt Tunisia Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 2

3. Economy

4. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (constant 2000 US$) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 4 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators South Africa 3 753 (2010) India 804 (2010) European Union 19 395 (2010) Korea, Republic 16 219 (2010) China 2 427 (2010)

5. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 5 Country GDP 2001 (constant 2000 US$ billion) GDP 2011 (constant 2000 US$ billion) % Change 2001-2011 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2006 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 10 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2011 Angola 4.2912.36188.33 %13.43 %8.96 %11.17 % Egypt 103.37163.1457.83 %4.18 %5.16 %4.67 % Ghana 5.1810.0594.00 %5.52 %8.20 %6.85 % Kenya 13.1919.9050.91 %4.14 %4.26 %4.20 % Mozambique 4.829.75102.12 %7.71 %6.87 %7.29 % Nigeria 47.4191.9693.97 %6.76 %6.94 %6.85 % Tanzania 10.8021.2596.85 %7.20 %6.82 %7.01 % Tunisia 22.5332.5844.59 %4.55 %2.96 %3.76 % Zambia 3.415.9875.28 %5.08 %6.47 %5.77 % Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

6. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 6 Country GDP 2001 (constant 2000 US$ billion) GDP 2011 (constant 2000 US$ billion) % Change 2001-2011 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2006 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 10 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2011 Angola 4.2912.36 188.33 % 13.43 %8.96 % 11.17 % Egypt 103.37163.1457.83 %4.18 %5.16 %4.67 % Ghana 5.1810.0594.00 %5.52 %8.20 %6.85 % Kenya 13.1919.9050.91 %4.14 %4.26 %4.20 % Mozambique 4.829.75102.12 %7.71 %6.87 %7.29 % Nigeria 47.4191.9693.97 %6.76 %6.94 %6.85 % Tanzania 10.8021.2596.85 %7.20 %6.82 %7.01 % Tunisia 22.5332.5844.59 %4.55 %2.96 %3.76 % Zambia 3.415.9875.28 %5.08 %6.47 %5.77 % Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

7. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 7 Country GDP 2001 (constant 2000 US$ billion) GDP 2011 (constant 2000 US$ billion) % Change 2001-2011 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2006 5 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 10 year Average Annual Growth Rate 2001-2011 Angola 4.2912.36188.33 %13.43 %8.96 %11.17 % Egypt 103.37163.1457.83 %4.18 %5.16 %4.67 % Ghana 5.1810.05 94.00 % 5.52 %8.20 %6.85 % Kenya 13.1919.9050.91 %4.14 %4.26 %4.20 % Mozambique 4.829.75 102.12 % 7.71 %6.87 %7.29 % Nigeria 47.4191.96 93.97 % 6.76 %6.94 %6.85 % Tanzania 10.8021.25 96.85 % 7.20 %6.82 %7.01 % Tunisia 22.5332.5844.59 %4.55 %2.96 %3.76 % Zambia 3.415.9875.28 %5.08 %6.47 %5.77 % Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

8. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 8 Source: International Futures Project, Pardee Centre for International Futures Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita Forecasts South Africa 2010 BRICS (5) 2010 Latin America 2010 USA 2010 South Korea 2010 EU (27) 2010

9. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 9 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

10. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 10 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

11. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Poverty Statistics Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 11 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Country Poverty Headcount: $1.25 / day, PPP (% of population) Poverty Headcount: $2.00 / day, PPP (% of population) Inequality (Gini Index) Prevalence of Undernourishment (% of population) Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Angola 54 % (2000)70 % (2000)59 (2000)58 % (2011)39 (2011) Egypt 2 % (2008)15 % (2008)31 (2008)5 % (2011)73 (2011) Ghana 29 % (2006)52 % (2006)43 (2006)5 % (2011)64 (2011) Kenya 43 % (2005)67 % (2005)48 (2005)30 % (2011)57 (2011) Mozambique 60 % (2005)82 % (2005)46 (2008)39 % (2011)50 (2011) Nigeria 68 % (2010)84 % (2010)49 (2010)9 % (2011)52 (2010) Tanzania 68 % (2007)88 % (2007)38 (2007)39 % (2011)58 (2011) Tunisia 1 % (2008)4 % (2008)36 (2010)5 % (2011)75 (2011) Zambia 74 % (2010)87 % (2010)57 (2010)47 % (2011)49 (2011)

12. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Poverty Statistics Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 12 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Country Poverty Headcount: $1.25 / day, PPP (% of population) Poverty Headcount: $2.00 / day, PPP (% of population) Inequality (Gini Index) Prevalence of Undernourishment (% of population) Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Angola 54 % (2000) 70 % (2000) 59 (2000)58 % (2011)39 (2011) Egypt 2 % (2008)15 % (2008)31 (2008)5 % (2011)73 (2011) Ghana 29 % (2006) 52 % (2006) 43 (2006)5 % (2011)64 (2011) Kenya 43 % (2005) 67 % (2005) 48 (2005)30 % (2011)57 (2011) Mozambique 60 % (2005) 82 % (2005) 46 (2008)39 % (2011)50 (2011) Nigeria 68 % (2010) 84 % (2010) 49 (2010)9 % (2011)52 (2010) Tanzania 68 % (2007) 88 % (2007) 38 (2007)39 % (2011)58 (2011) Tunisia 1 % (2008)4 % (2008)36 (2010)5 % (2011)75 (2011) Zambia 74 % (2010) 87 % (2010) 57 (2010)47 % (2011)49 (2011)

13. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Poverty Statistics Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 13 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Country Poverty Headcount: $1.25 / day, PPP (% of population) Poverty Headcount: $2.00 / day, PPP (% of population) Inequality (Gini Index) Prevalence of Undernourishment (% of population) Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Angola 54 % (2000) 70 % (2000)59 (2000)58 % (2011)39 (2011) Egypt 2 % (2008)15 % (2008)31 (2008)5 % (2011)73 (2011) Ghana 29 % (2006)52 % (2006)43 (2006)5 % (2011)64 (2011) Kenya 43 % (2005)67 % (2005)48 (2005)30 % (2011)57 (2011) Mozambique 60 % (2005) 82 % (2005)46 (2008)39 % (2011)50 (2011) Nigeria 68 % (2010) 84 % (2010)49 (2010)9 % (2011)52 (2010) Tanzania 68 % (2007) 88 % (2007)38 (2007)39 % (2011)58 (2011) Tunisia 1 % (2008)4 % (2008)36 (2010)5 % (2011)75 (2011) Zambia 74 % (2010) 87 % (2010)57 (2010)47 % (2011)49 (2011)

14. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Economy Poverty Statistics Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 14 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Country Poverty Headcount: $1.25 / day, PPP (% of population) Poverty Headcount: $2.00 / day, PPP (% of population) Inequality (Gini Index) Prevalence of Undernourishment (% of population) Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Angola 54 % (2000)70 % (2000)59 (2000)58 % (2011)39 (2011) Egypt 2 % (2008) 15 % (2008) 31 (2008) 5 % (2011) 73 (2011) Ghana 29 % (2006)52 % (2006)43 (2006)5 % (2011)64 (2011) Kenya 43 % (2005)67 % (2005)48 (2005)30 % (2011)57 (2011) Mozambique 60 % (2005)82 % (2005)46 (2008)39 % (2011)50 (2011) Nigeria 68 % (2010)84 % (2010)49 (2010)9 % (2011)52 (2010) Tanzania 68 % (2007)88 % (2007)38 (2007)39 % (2011)58 (2011) Tunisia 1 % (2008) 4 % (2008) 36 (2010) 5 % (2011) 75 (2011) Zambia 74 % (2010)87 % (2010)57 (2010)47 % (2011)49 (2011)

15. Governance

16. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Governance Worldwide Governance Indicators (Worldbank) Highs Consistent above par scores for Ghana Improved “Political Stability and Absence of Violence” Between 1996 and 2011: Angola: Rock bottom in 1998 to a relatively average level in 2011 Zambia: Significantly below average in 1996, significantly above average in 2011 Significant improvements in “Voice and Accountability” for Kenya Lows Nigeria performs poorly across the board Bottom percentile for “Political Stability and Absence of Violence”, “Regulatory Quality” and “Control of Corruption” categories Angola still performing poorly on other measures of governance Bottom percentile for “Control of Corruption” category Kenya performing poorly in most areas Bottom percentile for “Political Stability and Absence of Violence” category Tunisia and Egypt show 2011 dip for all categories other than “Voice and Accountability” Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 16

17. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Governance Ease of Doing Business Rankings (rankings of 174 countries) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 17 Angola 172 Tunisia 50 Kenya 121 Nigeria 131 Tanzania 134 Mozambique 146 Egypt 109 Zambia 94 Ghana 64 Source: IFC / Worldbank, Doing Business

18. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Governance Biggest Barriers to Business Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 18 12345 Mozambique Access to Financing Corruption Inefficient government bureaucracy Inflation Inadequate supply of infrastructure Angola Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequately educated workforce Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Access to Financing Zambia Access to Financing Corruption Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax Rates Inefficient government bureaucracy Kenya Corruption Access to Financing Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequate supply of infrastructure Crime and Theft Tanzania Corruption Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax RatesTax Regulations Nigeria Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure CorruptionPolicy Instability Government Instability / Coups Ghana Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Inflation Inefficient government bureaucracy Corruption Egypt CorruptionInflation Inadequately educated workforce Tax Regulations Access to Financing Tunisia Access to Financing Restrictive labor regulations Inefficient government bureaucracy Foreign Currency Regulations Inadequately educated workforce Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011

19. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Governance Biggest Barriers to Business Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 19 12345 Mozambique Access to Financing Corruption Inefficient government bureaucracy Inflation Inadequate supply of infrastructure Angola Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequately educated workforce Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Access to Financing Zambia Access to Financing Corruption Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax Rates Inefficient government bureaucracy Kenya Corruption Access to Financing Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequate supply of infrastructure Crime and Theft Tanzania Corruption Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax RatesTax Regulations Nigeria Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure CorruptionPolicy Instability Government Instability / Coups Ghana Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Inflation Inefficient government bureaucracy Corruption Egypt CorruptionInflation Inadequately educated workforce Tax Regulations Access to Financing Tunisia Access to Financing Restrictive labor regulations Inefficient government bureaucracy Foreign Currency Regulations Inadequately educated workforce Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011

20. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Governance Biggest Barriers to Business Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 20 12345 Mozambique Access to Financing Corruption Inefficient government bureaucracy Inflation Inadequate supply of infrastructure Angola Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequately educated workforce Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Access to Financing Zambia Access to Financing Corruption Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax Rates Inefficient government bureaucracy Kenya Corruption Access to Financing Inefficient government bureaucracy Inadequate supply of infrastructure Crime and Theft Tanzania Corruption Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Tax RatesTax Regulations Nigeria Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Policy Instability Government Instability / Coups Ghana Access to Financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure Inflation Inefficient government bureaucracy Corruption Egypt Corruption Inflation Inadequately educated workforce Tax Regulations Access to Financing Tunisia Access to Financing Restrictive labor regulations Inefficient government bureaucracy Foreign Currency Regulations Inadequately educated workforce Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011

21. Population

22. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Population Total Populations (million people) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 22 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 412 million people 6% of world population

23. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Population Urban Population (% of total population) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 23 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

24. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Population Age Distributions (% of population) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 24 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Source: World Bank, Health Nutrition and Population Statistics

25. Infrastructure

26. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Infrastructure Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 26 Roads Paved (% of total road network)

27. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Infrastructure Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 27 Communications Infrastructure (users per 100 people)

28. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Infrastructure Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 28 Electricity Infrastructure Access (% of population) Power Outages in a Typical Month Angola 26 % (2009)5 (2010) Egypt 100% (2009)0 (2008) Ghana 61 % (2009)10 (2007) Kenya 16 % (2009)7 (2007) Mozambique 12 % (2009)3 (2007) Nigeria 51 % (2009)26 (2007) Tanzania 14 % (2009)12 (2006) Tunisia 100% (2009) [no data] Zambia 19% (2009)3 (2007)

29. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Infrastructure Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 29 Electricity Infrastructure Access (% of population) Power Outages in a Typical Month Angola 26 % (2009) 5 (2010) Egypt 100% (2009)0 (2008) Ghana 61 % (2009)10 (2007) Kenya 16 % (2009) 7 (2007) Mozambique 12 % (2009) 3 (2007) Nigeria 51 % (2009)26 (2007) Tanzania 14 % (2009) 12 (2006) Tunisia 100% (2009) [no data] Zambia 19% (2009) 3 (2007)

30. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Infrastructure Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 30 Electricity Infrastructure Access (% of population) Power Outages in a Typical Month Angola 26 % (2009)5 (2010) Egypt 100% (2009)0 (2008) Ghana 61 % (2009)10 (2007) Kenya 16 % (2009)7 (2007) Mozambique 12 % (2009)3 (2007) Nigeria 51 % (2009)26 (2007) Tanzania 14 % (2009)12 (2006) Tunisia 100% (2009) [no data] Zambia 19% (2009)3 (2007) Quality of Electricity Supply (/7)

31. Investment

32. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Investment Key Points Focus on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI Data Patchy Limiting Cross-Country Comparisons Data used: UNCTAD, Investment Map Past Decade Has Seen Significant Rise in FDI flows into Africa South Africa Biggest Contributor to FDI to Tanzania, 3 rd Biggest Contributor to Mozambique Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 32

33. Trade

34. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Trade Key Points Trade discussed in detail in market attractiveness section Non-Tariff Barriers Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 34

35. Agriculture

36. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Agriculture Agricultural Production Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 36

37. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Agriculture Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 37 Food Security: Agricultural Production less Agricultural Demand Source: International Futures Project, Pardee Centre for International Futures

38. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Agriculture Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 38 Land Resources (Ha millions) Country AreaAgricultural Land % of Land Used for Agriculture Angola124.757.746.3 % Egypt100.13.73.7 % Ghana23.915.966.7 % Kenya58.027.547.3 % Mozambique79.949.461.8 % Nigeria92.436.082.5 % Tanzania94.737.339.4 % Tunisia16.410.161.6 % Zambia23.475.331.1 %

39. Technology & Innovation

40. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Technology & Innovation Public Expenditure on Agricultural R&D, 2008 (million 2005 PPP $) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 40 * 2001 data used for Tunisia (latest available data)

41. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Technology & Innovation Public Expenditure on Agricultural R&D per capita, 2008 (2005 PPP $) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 41 * 2001 data used for Tunisia (latest available data)

42. Consumption

43. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Consumption Egyptian Main Fruit Consumption in the Face of Rapid Economic Growth Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 43

44. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Consumption Egyptian Main Fruit Consumption in the Face of Rapid Economic Growth Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 44

45. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Consumption Starchy Root Consumption, 2009: Country Comparison 45

46. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Consumption Fruit Consumption, 2009: Country Comparison 46

47. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Consumption 47 Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field What is an Apple?

48. Water

49. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Water Annual Water Withdrawal (billion m³) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 49 Renewable Water Resources Total Water Withdrawals % Water Resources Being Withdrawn Angola 1480.70.5 % Egypt 5768.3119.2 % Ghana 531.01.9 % Kenya 312.78.9 % Mozambique 2170.90.4 % Nigeria 28613.14.6 % Tanzania 965.25.4 % Tunisia 52.962.0 % Zambia 1051.61.5 %

50. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Water Annual Water Withdrawal (billion m³) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 50 Renewable Water Resources Total Water Withdrawals % Water Resources Being Withdrawn Angola 1480.70.5 % Egypt 5768.3119.2 % Ghana 531.01.9 % Kenya 312.78.9 % Mozambique 2170.90.4 % Nigeria 28613.14.6 % Tanzania 965.25.4 % Tunisia 52.962.0 % Zambia 1051.61.5 %

51. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Water Annual Water Withdrawal (billion m³) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 51 Renewable Water Resources Total Water Withdrawals % Water Resources Being Withdrawn Angola 1480.70.5 % Egypt 5768.3119.2 % Ghana 531.01.9 % Kenya 312.78.9 % Mozambique 2170.90.4 % Nigeria 28613.14.6 % Tanzania 965.25.4 % Tunisia 52.962.0 % Zambia 1051.61.5 %

52. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Water Annual Water Withdrawal (billion m³) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 52 Renewable Water Resources Total Water Withdrawals % Water Resources Being Withdrawn Angola 1480.70.5 % Egypt 5768.3119.2 % Ghana 531.01.9 % Kenya 312.78.9 % Mozambique 2170.90.4 % Nigeria 28613.14.6 % Tanzania 965.25.4 % Tunisia 52.962.0 % Zambia 1051.61.5 %

53. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Water Irrigation Water Use (thousand Ha) Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 53 Irrigation PotentialArea Equipped for Irrigation Area Equipped as % of Potential Angola 3 700862.3 % Egypt 44 2003 4227.7 % Ghana 1 900311.6 % Kenya 53910319.2 % Mozambique 3 0721183.8 % Nigeria 2 33129312.6 % Tanzania 2 1321848.6 % Tunisia 56039762.0 % Zambia 52315629.8 %

54. Concluding Remarks…

55. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Concluding Remarks… Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 55 African future is very promising Significant barriers which need to be considered Can be utilised to gain competitive advantage No one country is better in every aspect, each has its pros and cons Early bird catches the worm

56. Thank you

57. © Western Cape Government 2012 | Work Available for Download… Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field 57 http://www.elsenburg.com/economics/africaagenda.html Email: andrewp@elsenburg.com louwpp@elsenburg.com