1. HIGHER EDUCATION OVERVIEW NORTH WEST UNIVERSITY MARCH 2012

2. Economic Growth and Human Development A substantial body of academic and technical literature provides evidence of the relationship between informationalism, productivity and competitiveness for countries, regions and business firms. But, this relationship only operates under two conditions: organizational change in the form of networking; and enhancement of the quality of human labor, itself dependent on education and quality of life. (Castells and Cloete, 2011) The structural basis for the growing inequality, in spite of high growth rates in many parts of the world, is the growth of a highly dynamic, knowledge- producing, technologically advanced sector that is connected to other similar sectors in a global network, but it excludes a significant segment of the economy and of the society in its own country. The lack of human development prevents what Manuel Castells calls the ‘virtuous cycle’, which constrains the dynamic economy. (Castells and Cloete, 2011) Connecting growth to human development – trickle down don’t work 2

3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita vs Human Development Index (HDI) 3 Country GDP per capita (PPP, $US) 2007 GDP rankingHDI Ranking (2007) GDP ranking per capita minus HDI ranking Botswana13 60460125-65 Mauritius11 2966881-13 South Africa9 75778129-51 Chile13 8805944+15 Costa Rica10 8427354+19 Taiwan (China) Ghana1 3341531521 Kenya1 5421491472 Mozambique802169172-3 Uganda1 0591631576 Tanzania1 2081571516 Finland34 256231211 South Korea24 80135269 U.S.A.45 592913-4

4. Economic Growth in Post Apartheid SA During the first decade of the post-apartheid era in South Africa, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a ‘modest rate’, averaging one percent, though edging up more recently to three percent. Nevertheless, this has been the longest period of positive growth in its history How did this growth happen? The envisaged post-1994 economic policies for the development project stated that the economy would require steering onto a new development path which, amongst others, would reduce dependence on resource sectors through industrial deepening and diversification (Bhorat 2010). 4

5. Economic Growth and the 2008 Financial Crisis The worst impact of the 2008crisis, resulted in at least a million job losses, and is associated with: structural industrial weaknesses and de-industrialization as a result of development centred around mining and minerals continued reliance on extractive mining and minerals exports consumption led growth and increased investment in services sectors, such as finance and retail speculative asset bubbles in real estate and finance and increased construction (mainly around the 2010 Soccer World Cup) and car sales the role of the financial sector which has emulated the behaviour of US financial institutions in increasing leverage and misallocation of capital in SA economy. (Mohamed 2009) 5

6. Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA The stated goal of the post-apartheid economic policy was to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment. A 2% growth should lead to a 1-7% reduction in poverty, depending on the country – meaning the success of redistributive policies (Bhorat 2010a). In South Africa, poverty declined from 52% in 1995 to 49% in 2005 and in the lower poverty group a 7% decline (31% to 24%). In addition, there were definite gains in poverty reduction, particularly in African female-headed households (Bhorat 2010a). All people, regardless of race, experienced increases in expenditure, meaning that growth was ‘pro-poor’. Despite the modest gains in poverty reduction, the inequality gap did not decrease; instead, it increased amongst all groups. This led Bhorat (2010a) to conclude that in 1994 South Africa was ‘one of the world’s most unequal societies, but by 2005 it may have become the world’s most unequal’. 6

7. Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA While spending on education and health remained fairly constant in real terms, recipients of social grants (excluding administration) now consumes 3.2% of GDP, up from 1.9% in 2000/01. The total number of beneficiaries increased from 3 million in 1997 to 15 million in 2010 (Woolard and Leibrandt 2011). The share of households in the first income decile with access to grant income increased from 43% in 1995 to almost 65% in 2005 and that even for households in the sixth decile grant income increased from 19% in 1994 to 50% in 2005. According to Bhorat (2010a) this suggests that grant income does not only support the very poor, but also a large number of households in the middle income distribution. More recent estimates suggest that 25% of the population are on social grants and 40 per cent of household income in the poorest quintile (Woolard and Leibbrandt 2011). Post-1994 South African democratic redistribution model operates through extensive social grants at the bottom end, few benefits at the middle of the distribution curve and the main growth is at the de-racialising top end. Based on this growth path, both Bhorat (unequal income distribution) and Mbeki (the disempowerment of welfarism) express concern for the future of democracy. 7

8. Higher Education and Development SA has a development crisis Connecting Growth to Human Development Castells project of Finland, Chile, Taiwan, Costa Rica, SA and California Two aspects of Higher Education that I want to concentrate on are Knowledge production (growth) and participation (skills and equity) 8

9. 9 Data source: Thomson Reuters InCites TM (21 September 2010); The World Bank Group (2010) The relationship between scientific excellence and economic development (R = 0.714, P = 0.218) (R = 0.961, P = 0.002)* Vuyani Lingela, 24 November 2011

10. Knowledge Production: SA International Performance 10 According to the NPC: 1.SA produces 28 PhD graduates per million of the population while UK =288; US = 201; Australia=264; Korea=187; Brazil = 48 2.World Bank: SA has tripled R&D investment since 1994, but the total number of FTE researchers increased by only 33%. SA has approximately 1.5 FTE researchers per 1000 employed; countries with similar ratio of R&D to GDP expenditure like Portugal = 4.8 and Italy = 3.6 3.NPC goals: Increase PhD graduates from 1420 to 5000 p.a and increase percentage of staff with PhD’s from 34% to 75%

11. Participation Rate and Development Indicators 11 Country Stage of development (2009-2010) Gross tertiary education enrolment rate (2008) Quality of education system ranking (2009-2010) Overall global competitive ranking (2010-2011) Ghana Stage 1: Factor-driven 671114 Kenya432106 Mozambique 281131 Tanzania 299113 Uganda 472118 Botswana Transition from 1 to 2 204876 Mauritius Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 265055 South Africa 17 (8.5)13054 Finland Stage 3: Innovation-driven 9467 South Korea 985722 United States 82264

12. BRICS: Selected higher education and economic development indicators (WEF 2010) 12 Country Stage of development (2009-2010) GDP per capita (USD) (2009) Tertiary education enrolment rate (2008) Global Competitiveness Index ranking (2010–2011) Brazil Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 2203558 Russia Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 6947763 India Stage 1: Factor-driven 1 03114 (2007)51 China Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 3 6782327 South Africa Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 5 8241754

13. Gross participation rates in SA higher education by Race, 1986 - 2009 13

14. Effective Participation: Throughput rates of general academic first-B- degrees

15. Knowledge Economy Central role of knowledge in government policies Focus in Knowledge Policies on: 1. Global economic competitiveness 2. Innovative capacity of societies 3. High Level Skills and Competencies of Labour force (Knowledge workers) Core issue: Most effective investment of public funds Claus Swabe (WEF) Not Capitalis, but Talentism

16. International Knowledge Policies – Maassen Starting point = New conditions in the global economy Growing focus of national (regional – supranational) policy makers and other central socio-economic actors on the university as a driver for economic growth through its role as source for innovation and job creation. Consequence = Two new university governance aspects First targeted policies for and investments in universities’ research capacity are assumed to be needed in order to improve the global competitiveness of a specific economy. Second, targeted policies for and investments in connecting the enhanced research capacity of universities to the knowledge needs of society (incl. private and public sector companies and organisations) in order to ensure the link of new knowledge to economic growth (innovation & new jobs ). «Balancing academic excellence with economic relevance»

17. HERANA: 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa Starting point is to increase understanding of the complex links/interactions between higher education and economic development – at national and institutional levels Three successful systems – Finland, South Korea and North Carolina (USA) Eight African countries and their national universities: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University/UCT), Tanzania, Uganda Network consists of 50 people from 15 countries, include Manuel Castells, Peter Maassen (Oslo) John Douglas (Berkeley) and Pundy Pillay (Wits) Funded by: Ford, Carnegie, Rockefeller, Kresge and Norad

18. Findings from Three Successful Systems Finland, South Korea, North Carolina (USA) As part of reorganising their ‘mode of production’, a pact was reached about a knowledge economy (high skills and innovation) as development driver Close links between economic and education planning High participation rates with differentiation Strong ‘state’ steering (projects) Higher education linked to regional development Responsive to the labour market Strong coordination (prime ministers office) and networks Pundy Pillay (2010) Linking higher education to economic development: Implications for Africa from three successful systems (CHET)

19. HERANA Findings on 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities 1.There is a lack of agreement (pact) between national and university stakeholders about a development model, and about the role of higher education in development 2.Only one of the eight countries (Mauritius) has accepted knowledge, and the associated human capital and research development, as a key driver for economic growth 3.Linking higher education to development requires considerable coordination within government, and between government, the university and external funders, and all three must contribute 4.The absence of a pact about the role of the university in development affects negatively implementation and resource allocation – which raises the possibility that we a have double problem; lack of capacity and a lack of agreement 19

20. Dis-coordinated Knowledge Policies 20 1.Department of Higher Education and Training a)Shocked by Chet’s finding of 3 million NEET’s and have become ‘overwhelmed’ with FET and training b)In Ministers budget speech referred to research on page 12 of 13 and never used knowledge economy and Africa, not to mention the globe (a local communist) 2.Department of Science and Technology b)Opening line knowledge economy and global competitive c)Presses all the knowledge production buttons d)Never spoke beyond pleasantries to DHET advisor 3.Two Departments focus on different and over-lapping aspects of the system, without any co-ordination

21. National Planning Commission (Nov 2011): Functions of HE (1) 21 Higher education is the major driver of the information-knowledge system, linking it with economic development...Universities are key to developing a nation. They play three main functions in society: Firstly, they educate and train people with high-level skills for the employment needs of the public and private sectors. Secondly, universities are the dominant producers of new knowledge, and they critique information and find new local and global applications for existing knowledge. Universities also set norms and standards, determine the curriculum, languages and knowledge, ethics and philosophy underpinning a nation's knowledge-capital. South Africa needs knowledge that equips people for a society in constant social change

22. NPC: Functions (2) 22 " Thirdly, given the country's apartheid history, higher education provides opportunities for social mobility and simultaneously strengthens equity, social justice and democracy. In today's knowledge society, higher education underpinned by a strong science and technology innovation system is increasingly important in opening up people's opportunities." (p262) For the first time knowledge production and equity are linked by stating that "high quality knowledge production cannot be fully realized with a low student participation rate" (p274). Also universities are not mainly fro individual mobility or for equity redress - equity is mentioned last and transformation in the Castells sense

23. NPC: Knowledge Enthusiasm 23 The NPC is so enthusiastic about knowledge that it declares that "knowledge production is the rationale of higher education" (p271) - indeed a radical departure from the traditional 'rationale' of higher education in Africa, that is, disseminating (teaching) knowledge from somewhere else. Posters outside Parliament for Thursday’s State of the Nation: Knowledge Economy and Development Opportunities. At ANC 100 th Zuma said: “Education and skills are the key priority for our people” These are huge steps away from HE as individual mobility and an equity instrument – but in State of Nation announced the biggest infrastructure project in history – not a word of KE

24. NPC Knowledge Policies 24 1.the notion of knowledge production consists of a combination of PhD education and research output. 2.a target of tripling the number of doctoral gradates from 1,420 to 5,000 per annum, and increasing the proportion of academic staff with PhDs from 34% to 75% 3.a number of world-class centres and programmes should be developed within the national system of innovation and the higher education sector. 4.a new future scholars programme needs to be developed, both to increase the proportion of staff with PhDs and to meet the increasing demand for professional PhDs in the non-university research, financial and services sectors 5.role of science councils should be reviewed in light of the world- wide tendency to align, or merge, research councils with universities

25. NPC: Differentiation 25 1.deals with the worldwide policy debate about the concentration of resources by proposing world-class centers and programmes across institutions (High science - Ska) 2.advises the Ministerial Committee for the Review of the Funding of Universities that such revisions should be based on the needs of a differentiated system with adequate provision for both teaching and research 3.requires flexible pathways for student mobility between institutions 4.the Higher Education Quality Committee should finally start developing a core set of quality indicators for the whole system;

26. DHET Green Paper 26 Research and innovation 1.Economic depends on innovation and technology absorption 2.While investment in research has tripled, there has not been a commensurate increase in personnel 3.Total knowledge output has increased 64% (2000-2009) but the system must become more productive 4.Poverty is a significant constraint on masters and Phd studies – students under pressure to obtain jobs?? 5.Drastically increase number and quality of masters and PhD’s 6.Need for increased coordination between DHET and DST 7.Caliber and workload of academic staff must be addressed 8.Long term plan for renewing the academic profession - doctorates for academics and professions

27. NPC and DHET: The Good, the Bad and the Incomprehensible 27 1.Differentiation (whatever form) is official 2.Knowledge production (PhD and research output must increase – different counts of research outputs) – at last recognising the knowledge producing role of the university 3.Big focus on doctorate – for academics (target more than 60%), professions research councils and other sectors (finance) 4.Good quality undergraduate education – including infrastructure funds for labs, libraries, housing 5.Improvement of through put – efficiency 6.Dramatic increase in participation rate – mainly in FET 7.Mission and profile differentiation 8.Creation of a connected system 9.Improved Coordination between DSHT and DHET (HESA meeting) 10.More funding for higher education

28. 28 Ten Year Innovation Plan The Government of South Africa is implementing the Ten Year Innovation Plan which includes five “Grand Challenges” that build on and expand the country’s research capabilities (Minister Naledi Pandor, 2009). The first grand challenge is to tap the potential of the bio-economy for the pharmaceutical industry. The second grand challenge is to build on investments in space science and technology. The third grand challenge is to move towards the use of renewable energy. The fourth grand challenge is to play a leading, regional role in climate change. The fifth and final grand challenge is termed “human and social dynamics”. Vuyani Lingela, 24 November 2011

30. * Mauritius enroll large numbers of students as MPhil students, and depending on their performance only some graduate as PhD students

31. KP outputs: Universities of Sao Paolo, Pretoria and Cape Town 31

32. Summary 32 1.Unprecedented shift from HE as instrument to advance equity and individual mobility to HE as crucial part of development 2.Policy recognition of importance of coordination of policy and implementation, but little sign of positive cooperation yet 3. SA a Medium knowledge producing system, rated around 30 th in the world 4.SA has a few global high visibility big science projects 5.SA seems to be doing better in research output than in producing doctorates 6.Over –enthusiasm about dramatic increase in doctoral production 7.Next session on the Doctoral Project will explore this ‘doctoral exuberance’ through different empirical prisms (Alan Greenspan initially attributed the 2008 crash to ‘irrational market exuberance’).

33. Graph 1 sets out data on key elements of SA’s high-level knowledge production for the period 1996-2010 expressed as doctoral enrolments, doctoral graduates and research publication units. Average annual changes in these totals are reflected in Graph 2. 33

34. Graph 2 divides Graph 1 growth rates into the period between (a) 1996 and 2002, which covered the period of the 1997 HE White Paper and the 2001 National Plans, and (b) 2004-2010 which covered the introduction and implementation of the new 2003 government funding framework. 34

35. Graph 3 divides the doctoral enrolment totals for 1996-2010 into race groupings. The main change has been in African doctoral enrolments, which increased from 663 in 1996 to 5066 in 2010, when African doctoral enrolments exceeded that of White enrolments for the first time. 35

36. Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010. 36

37. Graph 5 offers a first picture of the doctoral output efficiency of SA’s public HE system, based on output ratios which appear in the 2001 National Plan. The National Plan set this as an output norm: The ratio between doctoral graduates in a given year and doctoral enrolments should = 20%. So, if 10 000 doctoral students were enrolled in the HE system in year X, then at least 200 of these students should graduate in year X. This norm was based on a further target norm that at least 75% of any cohort of students entering doctoral studies for the first time in (say) year Y, should eventually graduate. Calculations had shown that if the cohort output norm was to be achieved, then the 20% ratio of total graduates to total enrolments would have to be met over a period of time. 37

38. Graph 5 shows that, as far as doctoral outputs are concerned, the Public HE system has failed to meet the National Plan’s efficiency targets. Calculations show that over the period 1996–2002, less than 50% of students entering doctoral programmes in SA will eventually graduate. 38

39. Graph 6 offers estimates of the effects of inefficiencies in SA’s doctoral programmes. For example, over the period 2005-2010, SA should, on the National Plan’s norms, have produced a total of 12 285 doctoral graduates but in fact produced only 7 711, leaving a “shortfall” of 4 739 graduates (who would have been drop outs from the system). 39

40. Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by Race Race New entrantsAcademic year Year 1Year 5*Year 7 Total graduates & dropouts for cohort African 2117 Registered at beginning of year 2117665281 Graduated (Cumulative) 26655860 41% Dropped out (Cumulative) 60610171257 59% Coloured 274 Registered at beginning of year 27411944 Graduated (Cumulative) 491130 47% Dropped out (Cumulative) 45108144 53% Indian 555 Registered at beginning of year 555193101 Graduated (Cumulative) 4202254 46% Dropped out (Cumulative) 116216301 54% White 3040 Registered at beginning of year 30401034441 Graduated (Cumulative) 5812131523 50% Dropped out (Cumulative) 53811581517 50% Total 5986 Registered at beginning of year 59862011867 Graduated (Cumulative) 9221612767 46% Dropped out (Cumulative) 130524993219 54% The End of year 7 dropping out numbers also include students that may have registered in future years to complete their studies. Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

41. Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by University Group New entrantsAcademic year Year 1Year 5*Year 7 Total graduates & dropouts for cohort High Productive Universities : University of Cape Town, University of Pretoria, Rhodes University, University of Stellenbosch, University of the Witwatersrand 3098 Registered at beginning of year 30981230509 Graduated (Cumulative) 2911791532 49% Dropped out (Cumulative) 49511301566 51% Other Universities : University of Fort Hare, University of the Free State, University of Limpopo, North-West University, University of the Western Cape 978 Registered at beginning of year 978316144 Graduated (Cumulative) 10372485 50% Dropped out (Cumulative) 210388493 50% Comprehensive Universities : University of Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, University of South-Africa, University of Venda, Walter Sisulu University, University of Zululand 1702 Registered at beginning of year 1702407187 Graduated (Cumulative) 50554672 39% Dropped out (Cumulative) 5308691030 61% Universities of Technology : Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Central University of Technology, Durban University of Technology, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Tshwane University of Technology, Vaal University of Technology 208 Registered at beginning of year 2085827 Graduated (Cumulative) 35678 38% Dropped out (Cumulative) 70112130 63% Total 5986 Registered at beginning of year 59862011867 Graduated (Cumulative) 9221612767 46% Dropped out (Cumulative) 130524993219 54% Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

42. Enrolments South AfricanInternationalTotal 20077 1952 85310 048 20086 9593 0359 994 20097 2133 31610 529 20107 8413 74911 590 GraduatesSouth AfricanInternationalTotal 20079003741 274 20088293531 182 20099084701 378 20109314891 420 Graduates NorwegianInternationalTotal 20077892411030 20089373081245 20098512971148 20108583261184 20118894381327 It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million

43. Academic staff with doctoral degrees are a key input for high-level knowledge production is. Permanent academic staff in this category should be the major producers of research outputs, and at an input level the main supervisors of doctoral students. Graph 7 shows how the totals of permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees changed between 1996 and 2010. 43

44. Graph 8 divides public HE institutions into the 3 categories used for national planning purposes, and sub-divides the 11 universities into a group of 6 which produces 60% of the HE system’s total high-level knowledge products and the remaining 5. The groups are: High productive universities UCT, UKZN, Pretoria, Rhodes, Stellenbosch, Wits Other universities Fort Hare, Free State, Limpopo, North West, UWC Comprehensive universities UJ, NMMU, Unisa, Venda, WSU, Zululand Universities of technology Cape Peninsula, Central, Durban, Mangosuthu, Tshwane, Vaal DUT 44

45. 45 Graph 8

46. The low proportions permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees must have an impact on the numbers of doctoral students which can be enrolled and supervised. Graph 9 shows what the ratios have been between doctoral enrolments and permanent academic staff with doctorates. A ratio of two doctoral enrolments per permanent academic with a doctorate could be used as an indicator of institutional capacity. Graph 9 shows that the high productive group of universities and the comprehensives had ratios above 2 in 2010, which could be taken to imply that they have reached capacity as far as doctoral enrolments are concerned. Increases in their doctoral enrolments should depend on more academic staff obtain their own doctoral degrees. The 2:1 norm suggests that the other group of 5 universities and the universities of technology may have spare supervisory capacity, but their ability to deal with this depends on their current financial and efficiency levels. 46

47. 47 Graph 9

48. Government’s funding incentives for research outputs are complex because of the 2-year time lag between the completing of an output and the receipt of a funding allocation, and the weightings applied to research outputs. Graph 10 shows what research funding totals were generated by each output category. Graph 11 shows what the Rand values can be assigned to research output units. 48

49. 49 Graph 10

50. 50 Graph 11

51. It could be argued that the high Rand values for doctoral graduates should have functioned as strong incentives to institutions to expand these outputs. The data in Graph 12 suggest these financial incentives have not yet affected doctoral graduate growth, which was 3.5% pa between 2000 & 2004, and 3.6% pa between 2005 and 2010. There are likely to be a number of reasons why doctoral graduate totals have not yet responded to the output funding incentives introduced for the first time in the 2004/5 financial year. One explanation is that only a few universities have been able to benefit from the introduction of government research output incentives. A second explanation is that doctoral processes in SA have been characterised by high levels of inefficiency, as has been seen in Graphs 5 and 6. 51

52. 52 Graph 12

53. Graph 13 shows that government output funding can be related to staff capacity. In 2011/12 the high productive university group generated R290 000 in government research funds per permanent academic, which was considerably higher than the averages for the other groupings. 53

54. Graph 14 relates doctoral graduate funding to permanent academic staff, but also compares this doctoral funding to research publication funding per permanent academic. The graph shows that in 2011/12 the high productive universities group generated R82 000 in doctoral funding per permanent academic, and R126 000 in research publications. The amounts are lower, but similar wide differences can be seen in the other institutional categories. These lower amounts generated by doctoral graduates could be related to institutional inefficiencies, but also to institutional incentives. Some institutions distribute publication output funds to authors, but few (if any) distribute doctoral graduate funds to supervisors. Academic staff members are therefore likely to gain more direct personal benefits from research publications than from doctoral graduates. 54

55. 55 Graph 14

56. Modes of coordination – (Braun 2008; Herana 2011) 56 1.Coordination of knowledge policies needs to take place at the level of both policy formulation and policy implementation (Braun) 2.Negative coordination is a non-cooperative game that leads … to the mutual adjustment of actors, but not to concerted action nor to cohesiveness of policies 3. Positive coordination goes beyond mutual adjustment… policy integration’ (the coordination of goals) and ‘strategic coordination’ 4.Positive coordination require a Pact, does not absolutely need a whole-government perspective, but a perspective that is agreed upon by a number of relevant political actors. 5.Methods: Departmental Mergers, Coordination Structures, Networks and Visions

57. A ‘pact’ is a fairly long-term cultural commitment to and from the University, as an institution with its own foundational rules of appropriate practices, causal and normative beliefs, and resources, yet validated by the political and social system in which the University is embedded. A pact, then, is different from a contract based on continuous strategic calculation of expected value by public authorities, organised external groups, university employees, and students – all regularly monitoring and assessing the University on the basis of its usefulness for their self-interest, and acting accordingly. Defining the ‘pact’

58. >The key findings of the three OECD systems were that knowledge was regarded as a key driver for development, and that education in general, but higher education in particular, is important >Is there agreement about the importance of knowledge for development? >Is there agreement about the role of the university in development? >We looked at national development plans, policies in different departments such as education, science and technology, planning commissions and interviewed some senior officials >At the institutions we looked at the strategic plan and interviewed a selection of leadership and academics Knowledge and development

59. >There is a lack of agreement (pact) about a development model and the role of higher education in development – at both national and institutional levels >There is an increasing awareness, particularly at government level, of the importance of universities in the knowledge economy >The lack of a pact means that what is often explained as a capacity problem could also be because of a lack of agreement >This is a major cause of ‘policy instability’, of a lack of coordination of policies across departments and of implementation, and affects long-term planning and institutional stability Findings: The pact

60. 60 SLIDE 1: HIGH LEVEL KNOWLEDGE INPUTS AND OUTPUTS Slide 1 uses averages for 2008-2010 for 4 input and 4 output variables, which reflect the state of high level knowledge production in the HE system, as a way of clustering HE institutions. These indicator averages are summarised in the Slide 1 data table. Inputs Masters enrolments as % of total head count enrolments Doctors enrolments as % of total head count enrolments % of permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees Ratio of doctoral enrolments to permanent academic staff Outputs Ratio of masters graduates to masters enrolments (throughput proxy) Ratio of doctoral graduates to doctoral enrolments (throughput proxy) Ratio of doctoral graduates to permanent academics (measure of academic staff research output efficiency) Ratio of research publications to permanent academics (further measure of academic staff research output efficiency )

61. 61

62. 62 Cluster 2 SLIDE 1