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Investing in Oil and Gas: West Africa Growth IP Week, London 2013 Austin Avuru MD / CEO SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company
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Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global and regional energy growth and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. 1
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Source: BP statistical review of world energy 2012 Introduction Estimated 2.8% of world oil (68 bn barrels) is in Sub-Saharan Africa 44 bn barrels in the Gulf of Guinea Oil and gas play strategic role in economies of West African countries giving them power and influence on world stage Africa's contribution to world reserves has increased from ~7.0 per cent in 1995 to ~ 8 per cent in 2011 Growing reserves in Libya, Nigeria and Angola Trend likely to continue with new discoveries announced in Ghana, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Mozambique, and Uganda in 2011 West Africa is new petroleum province with multi billion barrel potential The majors are there, and so are many smaller players 2 Africa is on an upward growth curve. This growth is underpinned by a longer-term process of economic and regulatory reform that has occurred across much of the continent. Ernst and Young
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West African Resources 3 Country Commercial Discovery First prod Reserves, 1/1/2012 Oil, BbblsGas, Tcf NIGERIA 1956195837.2180.5 GHANA 200720100.75 MAURITANIA 200120060.11.0 COTE D’IVOIRE 197719800.11.0 CAMEROON 197219770.24.7 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 198419911.71.3 GABON 196219673.71.0 CHAD 197220031.50 CONGO 198419571.93.2 ANGOLA 1955195613.510.9 1 NIGERIA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 GHANA 3 MAURITANIA 4 COTE D’IVOIRE 5 CAMEROON 6 EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON 7 8 CHAD 9 CONGO 10 ANGOLA Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA
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Significant Reserves Growth Three broad bands of Club Membership 4 Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA 1955 - 1975 Angola, Nigeria, Gabon, Cameroon, Chad 1975 - 1995 Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Congo RECENT Mauritania, Ghana
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Significant Reserves Growth Oil and gas activity in West Africa extends from Mauritania to Angola Nigeria and Angola have largest reserves, ~ 86% of the total sub- region’s reserves as of January 2012 New production countries - Chad, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Mauritania - have joined Nigeria, Angola, Cameroon in sub-region Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Mauritania have all discovered oil in commercial quantities Sub-Saharan African countries compete with each other to attract investment 5 50 67 86 95 Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA
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Where Will Future Growth Come From? Since 2007, West Africa has seen more success in exploration than other regions of the world – making it attractive for investment West Africa Transform Margin, deepwater West Africa, and offshore East Africa are the areas currently attracting most exploration interest Since Jubilee discovery in 2007, companies are exploring others parts of region (Ghana to Mauritania), looking for analogous Cretaceous turbidite prospects Offshore explorations in Sierra Leone and the Cote D’Ivoire look promising, making them high potential areas for investment beyond Nigeria and Angola In Sub-Saharan Africa an estimated 40 bn plus barrels of oil equivalent exist in technical reserves – most of it in Niger Delta Basin An estimated additional 55 bn barrels oil equivalent in yet-to-find resources, the second biggest region in the world after Latin America 6 Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Oil and Gas Future Growth Deepwater activities in West Africa mostly carried out by majors; circa 80,000 sq km acreage in their possession Mid-sized companies hold about 46,000 sq km of acreage in the West African transform margin 7 Sources: Wood Mackenzie
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Opportunities For Investment Opportunities exist for mid-sized companies to enter a market at the beginning of its growth story and therefore maximize returns Companies with position in frontier regions stand to gain as plays mature. Opportunity for divestment is expected over the coming years as larger companies give way to smaller independents and indigenous companies due to local content policies We expect to see more M&A activity in future, driven by majors ► As opportunities are further squeezed, consolidation across the sector will accelerate ► Competition will continue to intensify ► With dwindling opportunities and stronger players, the market will tighten 8 Sources: Wood Mackenzie / Petroleum Africa
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Challenges Investment Mix ► Bid rounds still cheapest entry into West African market. ► Conventional assets are in decline in mature basins, e.g. Niger Delta, and come with fiscal tightening ► Focus increasingly on exploration in frontier plays where fiscal terms are less onerous ► Discoveries and existing resources are more expensive limited by financial conservatism ► M&A appetite not too strong and most expensive Security risks, war and political tensions are some of the issues preventing growth in the sector Business environment ► Market price constraints ► Lack of enabling business infrastructure for investment to thrive ► Threat of cost inflation 9 Sources: Wood Mackenzie
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Summary Africa’s place as a significant producer and net exporter of oil in the world is forecast to grow to ~ 15% by 2020 due to new discoveries in West Africa and East Africa Significant growth potential exists in West African sub-region According to Wood Mackenzie, there are ~ 40 bn barrels of discovered but undeveloped reserves plus 55 bn barrels of yet-to-find Clear opportunities for investment as exploration activities in offshore deepwater West Africa recorded highest success rate in the world during 2007 – 2012 Investment opportunities exist in sub-region from exploration in frontier areas to the acquisition of mature assets, where secondary discoveries (deeper plays and by- passed plays) have recorded high success rate Investment mix of exploration, DROs and M&As are available 10 Sources: Wood Mackenzie
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