1. 1 Significance of the Pakistan Floods of 2010 to America Could it happen here? Michele Seib, CFM Zachary Baccala, CFM

2. Index of Analysis Background of floods along Indus River Hydrology of the Pakistan flood of 2010 Similarities in U.S. Watersheds Hazus Analysis of the Missouri River Impact Study – Could a similar catastrophe happen here? 2

3. Background – Indus River Facts 3 Primary source of agricultural water supply Provides 45% of electricity for Pakistan Majority of population live in the watershed http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo- s/01/24/f8/5e/indus-river-and-fields.jpg obtained 5/15/2011 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/- 2YKQLSdquC0/TaGEbBL0NfI/AAAAAAAAEbk/RUTiBuswuSU/s1600/Indus +River+Pakistan+by+all+about+pakistran+%252819%2529.jpg obtained 5/15/2011

4. Background – 2010 Flood Facts 4 According to the United Nations OCHA, 17.2 million people directly affected 1,539 lives claimed 1.2 million homes damaged or destroyed 3.2 million hectares of farmland destroyed Damaged 7,820 schools Massive infrastructure damage Photo of flooding in Muzaffargarh (AFP/Getty Images)

5. Background – Planning Factors 5 FLOODING Lack of storage Location of Development Flood warning system Lack of maintenance http://www.floodrelief.us/wp- content/uploads/2010/08/pakistan-flood-2009-8- 17-12-41-15.jpg obtained 05/15/2011

6. Background – Flood Distribution based on: http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,711885,00.html, Google Earth and Times Atlas, flooding zones as of 2010-8-26http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,711885,00.html

7. Hydrology – Indus River 7 Precipitation and temperature primary contributors Links Himalayans and groundwater from Indus alluvium fans Large number of dams and barrages Total Drainage area = 450,000 square miles

8. Hydrology – Flood Disaster Factors 8 Higher than normal precipitation Duration of monsoon season Design Criteria of structures Lack of maintenance http://www.inmysense.com/wp- content/uploads/2010/11/flood-pakistan.jpg

9. 9 Tarbela Kalabaugh Guddu Sukkur Kotri Taunsa Chashma Hydrology – Indus River http://ancien.riob.org/ag2000/pakistan.htm

10. Hydrology – Historical Peaks 10 Site Design cfsMaximumQ cfsDate2010 Q cfs Tarbela1,500,000832,000July 30 2010833,000 Kalabagh950,000937,453July 30 2010937,453 Chashma950,0001,038,873August 1 20101,038,873 Taunsa1,100,000959,991August 2 2010959,991 Guddu1,200,0001,199,672August 15 19761,148,738 Sukkur1,500,0001,166,574August 15 19861,130,995 Kotri875,000980,329August 14 1986964,897 Data obtain from the Pakistan Meteorology Department

11. Hydrology – Study Locations 11 TarbelaGudduTaunsa 180,000 sq miles 959,991 cfs 65,000 sq miles 833,000 cfs 293,300 sq miles 1,130,000 cfs

12. Similarities – US Watersheds 12 Missouri River Basin Average discharge 86,340 cfs 529,350 square miles Sourced by several springs http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/images/mrr_map_1.jpg

13. 13 Similarities – US Watersheds Fort Peck Dam, MT Hermann, MO Bismark, ND Sioux City, IA

14. Similarities – Gage Pairs 14 Tarbela 65,000 sq miles 833,000 cfs Fort Peck Dam Montana 57,566 sq miles Q100 = 45,620 cfs Q500= 58,770 cfs Historical Peak= 51,000 cfs (1946) Taunsa 180,000 sq miles 959,991 cfs Bismark North Dakota 186,400 sq miles Q100 = 325,200 cfs Q500=548,500 cfs Historical Peak= 500,000 cfs (1952) Guddu 293,300 sq miles 1,130,000cfs Sioux City Iowa 314,600 sq miles Q100 = 445,600 cfs Q500=571,100 cfs Historical Peak= 441,000 cfs (1952)

15. Similarities – Gage Pair 15 Kotri *450,000 sq miles 964,000 cfs Hermann Missouri 573,566 sq miles Q100 = 703,900 cfs Q500= 862,100 cfs Historical Peak= 750,000 cfs (1993)

16. 16 Hydrologically speaking, could an event happen along the Missouri River?

17. Hazus Modelled Losses 17

18. Hazus 18 Hazus MR5 DEMs from USGS Seamless DEMs for Canada from SRTM 90mtr data Resampled to 30mtr 20 sq mile drainage area used for stream network creation Single Discharge Methodology Section 1: 833,000 Section 2: 959,991 Section 3: 1,140,000

19. Hazus – Selected Communities 19 Bismarck, North Dakota 1952 Floods 27.9 feet, 200 homes destroyed 300 head of cattle Modeled Flood (Section 2) 31 feet 7,124 homes impacted 3,788 substantially damage $1,232,086,000 Total Loss Mandan, ND also heavily impacted

20. Hazus – Selected Communities 20 Sioux City, Iowa 1952 Floods 24.3 feet $3,264,000 in damages Modeled Flood (Section 3) 33 feet 5,240 homes impacted 3,246 substantially damage $1,694,734,000 Total Loss Dakota County, NE also heavily impacted

21. Hazus – Selected Communities 21 Omaha, Nebraska 1952 Flood 30.25 feet $445,018,700 in damages 414,000 cfs 5 miles wide Altered course of river Modeled Flood (Section 3) 33 feet 9,463 homes impacted 7,665 substantially damage $2,742,164,000 Total Loss Almost 7 miles wide 1,140,000 cfs

22. Hazus Agricultural Analysis 22 Parameter and Losses Agriculture Parameter: May 1 st Agricultural Losses Totaling $352,450,000 Majority Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Oats

23. Hazus 23 General Building Stock $7,070,296,000 Total Losses Shelters Displaced Population: 106,845 Short Term Needs: 93,088 Schools 59 schools $216,594,290 Building Damage

24. Other Impacts 24 Transportation Systems Airports 4 large airports, including Eppley Airfield in Omaha, Nebraska and Sioux Gateway Airport (Colonel Bud Day Field) in Sioux City, Iowa Roads 235 Major Highway segments 32 of Highway crossings Rails 1,085 miles inundated 8 rail crossings

25. Environmental Hazards 25 Over 7500 Public Water Source wells TRI Sites 173 Sites Agricultural, Fuel Depots, Industrial chemicals Waste Water Treatment Facilities Over 40 16 Classified as Major

26. Environmental Hazards 26 Over 7500 Public Water Source wells TRI Sites 173 Sites Agricultural, Fuel Depots, Industrial chemicals Waste Water Treatment Facilities Over 40 16 Classified as Major

27. Could such an event happen in the US? 27 From an engineering perspective Yes, but only at the mouth From a economic perspective Relief Aid Income/Educational differences Government Organizations From a quality of life perspective

28. Questions 28 Michele Seib: michele.seib@atkinsglobal.commichele.seib@atkinsglobal.com Zachary Baccala: zachary.baccala@atkinsglobal.comzachary.baccala@atkinsglobal.com