1. LEAVING MUM ALONE? THE EFFECT OF POST-DIVORCE SINGLE- MOTHERHOOD ON CHILDREN LEAVING HOME DECISIONS Letizia Mencarini University of Turin, Collegio Carlo Alberto & CHILD Elena Meroni University of Padua & Dondena Centre Chiara Pronzato Dondena Centre at Bocconi University & CHILD

2. A IM OF OUR PAPER 1

3. S TATE OF THE A RT There is a growing literature considering the relationship between parental divorce and children’s life-course patterns. There is no general consensus on whether parental separation accelerates or postpones children’s transition to adulthood 2

4. THE AIM OF THE PAPER IS TO... to add to this literature by analyzing the effect of parental divorce on the timing of nest-leaving of young adults The analysis touches on several important issues, many of which are related to self-selection. to assess the extent to which the associations between divorce and nest-leaving timing are masked by different effects The selection effect concerns the fact that children of divorced parents may have different socio-economic background, which makes them in any case leave the parental home at a different rate. 3

5. KEY MOTIVATIONS to better understand the leaving home process since there are huge variations in timing within and across European countries to provide insights on how increasing divorce rates may affect the way young people decide to live together with their parents or apart since the phenomenon of family disruption is in great increase and long spells of single motherhood family living arrangement will be the reality of an increasing number of children 4

6. PARENTAL SEPARATION AND LEAVING HOME The Theoretical Perspective 5

7. L ITERATURE ON P ARENTAL DIVORCE & CHILDREN Especially in North American context (McLanahan 1985 and 1988; McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; McLanahan and Garfinkel 1989; Astone and McLanahan 1994; McLanahan and Sandefur 1994; McLanahan and Percheski 2008) Much less in the European one (a part from O’Connor 2003; Bernhardt et al. 2005; Ongaro and Mazzuco 2009). Wider literature on the effects that parental divorce  It seems beyond doubt that parental divorce diminishes children’s chances for well-being. Several studies have examined the relationship between home leaving and family structure  individuals coming from dissolved families leave home earlier (Aquilino 1991, Tang 1996, Kiernan 1992, Goldscheider and Goldscheider 1989, 1998, 1999; Bernhardt et al 2005), 6

8. L ITERATURE ON N EST -L EAVING FOR C HILDREN IN D ISRUPTED F AMILIES Indirect effects: those referring to selection effects of disruptive families Family background consequences on children cognitive and non- cognitive skills formation of being grown up in a disruptive family during the childhood Economic hardship Parent-child conflict “Role model” explanation 7

9. L ITERATURE ON N EST -L EAVING FOR C HILDREN IN D ISRUPTED F AMILIES Direct effects: those linked to the changes in family structure that produce incentives or disincentives to leave home quantity and quality of contact with, at least, the non-co resident parent Push effect of: Step-parent (effect stronger for girls than for sons) Presence of half- or step-sibling More problematic parent-child relations in remarried households Conversely, home-leaving in single-parent families has received less attention than in stepfamilies 8

10. R ESEARCH Q UESTIONS A part from the selection effect … Do children of divorced parents develop different own characteristics that affect their human capital construction and their socialization, which in turn make them leave the parental home a different rate? Do children of divorced people leave parental home at a different age also depending on the new family structure i.e. step-family or single-parent family, because, for instance in the latter situation, the mother would be alone at home in case they leave? 9

11. D ATA, S AMPLE C HARACTERISTCS & the Contextual Diversity 10

12. DATA Longitudinal retrospective family histories data from 1 st wave of Gender and Generations Surveys (GGS) Six European countries Bulgaria, France, Georgia, Hungary, Italy, and Russia 11

13. M EDIAN AGE AT LEAVING HOME FOR GIRLS OF INTACT / NON INTACT FAMILIES ( WITH POST - DIVORCE / WIDOW SINGLE - MOTHERS ) 12

14. M EDIAN AGE AT LEAVING HOME FOR BOYS OF INTACT / NON INTACT FAMILIES ( WITH POST - DIVORCE / WIDOW SINGLE - MOTHERS ) 13

15. D ESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (1) 14

16. D ESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (2) 15

17. M ETHODOLOGICAL A NALYSIS S TRATEGY & Research Hypotheses 16

18. H YPOTHESES We assume that the leaving home decision depends on parental divorce and other characteristics of the young person and his or her family Leave home = f(divorce; other characteristics) (1) We hypothesize that the effect of parental divorce on nest-leaving timing works through 3 channels Leave home = f(selection, development, cohabitation; other characteristics) (2) 17

19. M ETHODOLOGICAL S TRATEGY We calculate the effect of living with a lone mother in different groups of young children: those with separated/divorced parents; those with the father died during childhood those with the father died after childhood. Comparing the effect of living with the lone mother among these different groups, we try to identify the three net effects of our hypotheses. Our investigation requires, therefore, the estimation on three successive models Complementary log-log models with random effects at household’s level 18

20. 1 ST STEP 1. We compare the leaving home decisions of children of divorced and not-divorced parents, by simply including a time-varying dummy variable “divorce” in the following hazard rate equation That is, the hazard is a function of the characteristics of the child ( X ), of the household ( H), of parental divorce ( D), of the time spent at home after age 17 ( T ). The coefficient & gives us the gross effect of divorce without telling us what is causing what. 19

21. 2 ND STEP 2. we compare the leaving home decisions of children whose parents have been alive and together all along with the leaving home decisions of children who experienced the death of the father (more random than the decision of divorce) we clean the gross divorce effect estimated by (3) from the selection effect for divorce we consider this different sample and include a dummy variable “death” in the following equation: The coefficient gives us the effect of growing and residing with only the mother. The different between and is then informative of the selectio 20

22. 3 RD STEP 3. we compare the leaving home decisions of children whose parents have been alive and together all the time children were staying at home with the decisions of children who experience the death of one parent, but only after age 18. The latter group of children grow up with both parents but the home leaving decision involves leaving the mother alone. We therefore consider this sub-sample and include a time-varying dummy variable “death” in the following equation The coefficient gives an estimate of the cohabitation effect, and allows us to clean the effect estimated by (4). The difference between and is then informative of the development effect. 21

23. E STIMATING E FFECTS Of Parental Separation 22

24. STEP 1 : E STIMATING THE G ROSS POST - DIVORCE SINGLE - MOTHERHOOD EFFECT 23 Children who have (not) experienced parental separation or divorce (children who experienced parental death are excluded)

25. STEP 2: E STIMATING THE J OINT DEVELOPMENT AND COHABITATION EFFECTS 24 Children who have (not) experienced widowhood (children who experienced separation/divorce excluded)

26. STEP 3: E STIMATING THE COHABITATION EFFECT 25 Children who have (not) experienced widowhood after age 18 (children who experienced separation or divorce, or parental death before 18, excluded)

27. S UMMARY OF THE RESULTS 26

28. C ONCLUSION & OPEN ISSUES 27

29. C ONCLUSIONS The positive association often found, between divorce and timing of nest-leaving, can mask diverging effects 1. living with a lone mother slows the process 2. “development effect”, i.e. individual features developed as consequence of family disruption, accelerates the process 3. being only-child or last child at home slows the process 28

30. I MPLICATIONS Implication for transition to adulthood research parental family histories have to be taken into great consideration when the demographic behavior of young people is analysed Implication for predicting trends&policy how the increase of divorce rate will affect the timing young people decide to leave parental home? highly context-dependent: welfare measures (i.e. the economical help to lonely- mother poorer household) specific propensity of divorce people to have further unions after divorce and form step-families Example of Italy! 29