1. THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS)
Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models

2. MODELING ISSUES Increasing complexity of problems
Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches
Continued advances in science and computer technology
New data resources
No universal models

3. STARTING POINTS There are no universal models
Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness
Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application

4. Modeling Conundrum
Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results
Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others

5. TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS
Research Model Developer Complex Detail
Application Model Developer
Model User
Resource Manager
Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

6. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
Single Purpose
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
Multi-objective, Complex

7. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

9. CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN
Modules should
relate directly to real world components or processes
have input and output variables that are measurable values
communicate solely via these input and output variables
Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

11. MODEL BUILDING TOOL - XMBUILD

13. SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS
USGS
PRMS
DAFLOW
1-D Sediment Transport (beta)
MODFLOW
WEBMOD
WETMOD
OTHER
TOPMODEL
Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt)
Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS)
ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria)
IN DEVELOPMENT
PRMS-MODFLOW-DAFLOW-UnsatZone
Sacramento Model (NWS)
PHREEQC, OTIS, OTEQ, AHM (QW models)
RZWQM, RUSLE, SWAT, Generic Crop (ARS Ag models)

14. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

15. Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling

16. PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone
Unsaturated Zone Model
(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)
Streamflow

17. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

18. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
MMS Model
Watershed Model
Off-the-shelf Model
Hydraulics Model
Database
Data Management Interface (DMI)
Fish Model

19. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
MMS Model
Off-the-shelf Model
Watershed Model
Database
Hydraulics Model
Data Management Interface (DMI)
Fish Model
Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

20. MULTI-MODEL CONTROLLER

21. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

22. Watershed and River Systems Management Program
Recreation
Watershed and River Systems Management Program
Municipal & Industrial
Irrigation
Hydropower
Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.
Riparian Habitat
Endangered Species

25. RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

26. Upper Gunnison DSS Hydromet Hydrologic Database RiverWare
Real-time climate data feed
Hydrologic
Database
DMI
DMI
RiverWare
Reservoir and River System
Operations Model
DMI
MMI
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Physical Process Models

27. WARSMP BASINS YAKIMA SACRAMENTO TRUCKEE GUNNISON SAN JOAQUIN SAN JUAN
CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL
IN DEVELOPMENT
SACRAMENTO
TRUCKEE
GUNNISON
SAN JOAQUIN
SAN JUAN
RIO GRANDE
IN DEVELOPMENT, MMS PLUS
WARSMP RELATED

28. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

29. ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS
Currently Available
Statistical and Graphical Analyses
Parameter Optimization
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
Beta Testing
Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization
Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)
Visualization

31. GIS WEASEL

32. DIGITAL DATABASES (1 km2 resolution) Vegetation Type (USFS)
Vegetation Density (USFS)
Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)

33. STATSGO - Soils Data, 1 km2 (USDA)

34. AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

35. Forecast Methodologies
- Historic data as analog for the future
Point measures (ESP)
Radar data (NEXRAD)
- Synthetic time-series using regional info
- Atmospheric model output
Statistical Downscaling
Dynamical Downscaling

36. 3-D Visualization

37. CURRENT FOCUS ISSUES IN MMS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION
Coupling of SW and GW Models
A Priori Parameter Estimation
Incorporation of Remotely Sensed Data
Coupling of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models
Improved Hydrologic and Ecosystem Process Simulation
Integrated Analysis and Support Tools

38. PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone
Unsaturated Zone Model
(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)
Streamflow

39. A Priori Parameter Estimation
Hydrologic Landscape Units
Selected Basins

40. USGS WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM
Trout Lake, Wisconsin
Sleepers River, Vermont
USGS
Loch Vale, Colorado
Panola Mountain, Georgia
WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM
Luquillo, Puerto Rico

41. FOCUS ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED THROUGH COLLABORATIVE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY EFFORTS

42. UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION
University of Arizona
NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)
NASA funded -- Southwest Regional Earth Science Applications Center -- Integration of remotely sensed data
University of Colorado
NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts

43. NRCS Streamflow Forecast Points (1200)

44. INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS)
US Geological Survey
Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

45. U.S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING(
Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use in human and environmental health risk assessment
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Army Corp of Engineers (COE)
US Geological Survey (USGS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA)
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Department of Energy (DOE)
US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

46. MMS International Collaboration
Public Works Research Institute, Japan
Korean Water Resources Corp., South Korea
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography and Natural Resources Institute, Beijing
Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
University of Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

48. SUMMARY Toolbox approach to model and system development
Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems
Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs
Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology

49. Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul
POINT
“A fool with a tool is still a fool.”
Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul
System Development magazine

50. PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT
OPEN SHOP
CONSULTATION
COLLABORATION

51. MORE INFORMATION http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms
SW_precip_runoff/papers