1. Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries Lourdes V. Tibig Philippines

2. Tools: Newer versions of GCMs, RGCMs Old version of GCMs (coarse resolutions) Simple case studies Community-based approach for V & A Integrated impact assessment models Analogue studies

3. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS PACIFIC ISLANDS REGION PI Regional Assessment of Consequences of climate variability and change study 2 coupled atmosphere- ocean GCMs (seasonal change in climate) + 9 coupled GCMs (annual means) PICCAP6 model simulations: 5 coupled ocean – atm. model +1 regional climate model (regional climate change scenarios in 4 PC Is)

4. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS Lal, et al5 coupled atm-ocean GCMs (regional changes in climate) Historical observations at 6 sites and globally averaged projection (sea level rise) PACCLIMIntegrated impact assessment linking all impact models population projections and historical climate data VandaClimIncludes projections RCM scenario generator, sectoral impact models

5. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS Cook IslandsCDAMPIC5-step process (community–based) FijiFMS,FSC and USPFive phase SOI Climate Forecast System + APSIM (sugar yield simulations) Fiji and Cook Islands AIACC (PACE, IGCI)“Next-generation” of integrated assessment model (on going) (impacts and adaptation at island and sub-island scale)

6. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS AUSTRALASIAN REGION (AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND) CSIRO, 1996a NIWA-Renwick et al 1998a Slab-ocean GCM + transient AOGCM (rainfall scenarios) CSIRO RCM 125-km resolution nested in CSIRO Mark 2 coupled GCM (impacts assessments) Hulme and Sheard (1999) Carter et al (2000) Coupled models + SRES scenarios Hennessy et al (0998)CSIRO GCM transient scenarios (regional scenarios of NSW, Australia) Clarks, et al (1999)Statistical downscaling (regional scenarios of western Australia) Basher, et al (1998)Statistical downscaling from equilibrium GCM runs (scenarios in NZ)

7. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS Pittock, et al (2001) William,et al(2001) Walsh and Ryan (2000) Extreme events and prospects for future. Extreme events with incidences of wildfire, landslides and storm surges Impacts of intense tropical cyclones on coastal regions Evans and Allan (1992) Basher and Zheng (1995) Tropical cyclogenesis Walsh et al (1999), (2000) Cai and Whetton (2000) Kathavala (1999) Inter annual variability in ENSO and what more ElNiño like mean would imply Meehl and Washinton (1996) Kathavala (1999) NCAR CCMO GCM (drought) Walsh et al (2000) CSIRO RCM at 60-km resolution (meteorological drought in Queensland) Arnell (1999)4 enhanced GHG simulations with HADCM2 GCM and one with HADCM3 (global study in droughts)

8. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES STUDIESTOOLS OZCLIM CLIMPACTS Integrated modeling systems for integrated impact assessments Carnegie Mellon University ICAM model (adaptation strategies) DICE model (economic impact of climate change damages) INSIGHT model (range of economic, social, environmental and land use impacts)

9. Limitations SRES scenarios have not been applied yet in any detailed studies of impacts in the region (IPCC, 2001) Impacts studies have not taken account of specific socio-economic scenarios of the future.

10. Low to medium confidence in the projected changes in Australia, medium confidence in the expected increase of such changes like the north-south temperature gradient in mid- southern latitudes, strengthening of the westerlies and associated west-to-east gradient of rainfall across Tasmania and New Zealand For impacts, there is medium confidence in the predicted vulnerability of agricultural activities to regional reductions in rainfall in southwest and in inland Australia and eastern New Zealand Source: IPCC TAR Limitations

11. Very high confidence in the assessment that Australia has significant vulnerability to changes in temperature and rainfall projected for the next 50 to 100 years Limitations

12. Main areas of vulnerability and adaptability to climate change impacts in Australia and New Zealand. SectorImpactVulnerabilityAdaptationAdaptability Agriculture, grazing and forestry Reduced productivity, increased stress on rural communities, if droughts increase, increased forest fire risk - M Changes in global markets as a result of climate changes elsewhere -H, but sign uncertain Increased spread of pests and diseases - H Increased CO 2 initially increases productivity, but offset by climate changes later - L Location – dependent, worsens with time High, but sign - uncertain Medium Changes with time Management and policy changes, fire prevention, seasonal forecasts Marketing, planning, niche and fuel crops, carbon trading Exclusion, spraying Change farm practices, change industry Medium Medium Medium Note: Degree of confidence that tabulated impacts will occur is indicated by a letter in the Impact column (VH = very high, H = high, M = medium, L = low, VL = very low).

13. Main areas of vulnerability and adaptability to climate change impacts in Australia and New Zealand. SectorImpactVulnerabilityAdaptationAdaptability HorticultureMixed impacts (+ and -), depends on species and location – H Low overallRelocateHigh FishRecruitment changes (some species) – L Unknown net effectMonitoring, management - Note: Degree of confidence that tabulated impacts will occur is indicated by a letter in the Impact column (VH = very high, H = high, M = medium, L = low, VL = very low).

14. Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines) Studies madeTools/Methods AIACC impact assessment studiesOutputs of GCM models from IPCC – DDC/MAGIC SCENGEN, land use models, CLUE model and DSSAT, CENTURY Holdridge Life Zones +GIS USCSP-sponsored vulnerability and adaptation studies (Indonesia, Philippines) Outputs from GCMs (GISS, GFDL, UKMO, CCCM, CSIRO 9) +DSSAT National effortsCase study approach (Malaysia) + documentation of extreme events (Philippines)

15. Findings/limitations On the national level: The GCMs used in the 1990s had coarse resolutions. Climate change scenarios generated were varied; so that at best, impact assessments were more of a sensitivity analysis (Philippines) Results of national studies on climate variability and their impacts have greater use in terms of advocating for policy changes. There is a need for capacity building (e.g. training on and access to RCMs, downscaling techniques, etc.) Additionally, one issue that is most important is dealing with uncertainties and how to communicate these uncertainties to policy makers.

16. Regionally, Characteristics of the assessment require climate scenarios with high spatial (e.g., site) and temporal (e.g. daily) resolution; The most readily available data that can be used to develop climate scenarios are monthly outputs from different GCMs which typically have a spatial resolution of several hundred kilometers; Downscaling of some kind is required to address the gap in temporal and spatial scales; Source: 2 nd AIACC Workshop, Manila, 2004

17. Regionally, Statistical, dynamic downscaling and simple interpolation techniques are being used to address the issue of spatial scale; To address the gap in temporal resolution, monthly GCM outputs were used to either drive a climate/weather generator to generate daily climate scenarios; and Most studies have made adjustments/ simplifications due to data unavailability/ resources constraints. Source: 2 nd AIACC Workshop, Manila, 2004

18. Important Findings Climate change will impose significant stresses on available natural resources throughout Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands countries and even Australia and New Zealand; Future trends of extreme events could continue to be disastrous and even catastrophic unless preparedness is developed