1. How to Measure ANYTHING

2. The Analytical Process

3. The analytical process Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink

4. THINK! Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies

5. Lateral Thinking 1

6. Lateral Thinking 2

7. Lateral Thinking 3

8. Lateral Thinking 4

9. Working backward from the conclusion

13. Decompose Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values) Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values)

14. Simplify -- KISS Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications) Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications)

15. Specify Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision) Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision)

16. Rethink Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis

17. Let’s Play Save the World Global warming!

18. Q&D ABC Global Warming What is our first step?

20. All choices presuppose forecasts All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations