1. 1 WELCOME WELCOME Inland Empire Regional Economic Vitality Conversation November 4, 2004 Made possible through generous support from Bank of America

2. 2 Inland Empire 2004 … Opportunities & Challenges! John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.

3. 3 I-15 Freeway Where’s The Dirt? 1. Affordable Housing & Population Serving Jobs 2. Industrial Projects & Blue Collar Jobs 3. Expensive Housing, Skilled Workers & High Paying Jobs

4. 4 Local Job Change 853,894, 1990-2004 … Inland Empire 39.5% of gain in Southern California’s growing areas.

5. 5 30,050 41,025 37,642 36,533 36,775 41,483 46,008 6,342 9,758 4,575 16,917 28,925 23,083 38,325 40,692 56,467 49,850 40,567 33,292 24,125 29,200 22,900 19841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 2004e 2004 YTD Source: CA Employment Development Department, Economics & Politics, Inc. Inland Empire Job Growth Rate & Forecast, 1984-2004 IE Job Growth 2004 … Falling Short of Forecast 29,200 Forecastat Just 22,900 Jobs?

6. 6 Population As A State, 2003 24 U.S. States!

7. 7 Population Growth, 2000-2020! 12,757 5,610 4,401 1,677 1,588 1,3341,313 1,2131,207 1,0701,060 California Texas Florida I. Emp. Georgia Washingto N. Carolin Arizona New York Virginia Riv. Co. Illinois New Jersey Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Southern California Association of Governments (preliminary) Population Growth, 2000-2020 Inland Empire & Top 11 States (000) 1,764 1085 47 U.S. States!

8. 8 Total Personal Income As State, 2002 Passed Iowa 21 States Have Less Income 21 States!!!

9. 9 Stage #1: Dirt: Population & Population Serving Job Growth

10. 10 BUILD FREEWAYS & THEY’LL COME Don’t Build Them & They’ll Come Anyway!

11. 11 2003-2004, Inland Empire captured a record 48.4% of Southern California’s New Home Market!

12. 12 Inland Empire Income Rank Falling

13. 13 No College Classes, 2000 SCAG 46.8% vs. 50.3% in Inland Areas. #1. Education #2. Blue Collar Jobs

14. 14 Stage #2 Dirt: Blue Collar Jobs

15. 15 Labor Cost Savings, 2003

16. 16 Inland Empire Industrial Space: 32.0% of L.A. County

17. 17 BUT: Manufacturing Disappearing

18. 18 3. Issue: Energy Cost

19. 19 4. Issue Workers Compensation 5. Only State 8-Hour Day Not 40-Hour Week for Overtime 6. Only State Mandatory Family Leave

20. 20 Issue 7. 16 th Highest Home Prices of 138 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

21. 21 Looking Ahead: Huge Cargo Ships! 8,200 Container Post-Panamax Ships 9.5 17.1 30.3 200020102025 TEU = 20 foot equivalent units Source: Alameda Corridor-East Trade Corridor, 2001 Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach Containerized Cargo, 2000-2025 (millions of TEUs) 37 Trains For Containers From One Ship

22. 22.... Needed: Expanded RR Track Grade Crossings Intermodal Yards Short Haul Rail Issue 8. State Help: A Financing Mechanism

23. 23 Lane Separations: Cars & Trucks Issue 8. Again State Help With A Financing Mechanism

24. 24 ONT is now the only airport capable of becoming Southern California’s second major air gateway.

25. 25 Inland Air Cargo Due To Explode! LAX 2003

26. 26 Logistics A Strong New Blue Collar Sector But A Land Hog!..

27. 27 Stage 3.- Factors Driving: High Paying Work Starting NOW!

28. 28 Affordability Even An Inland Issue

29. 29 Issue 9: Housing Supply Pricing Future Middle Class – Mostly Young, Blacks & Hispanics - Out of Housing Market

30. 30 2003 Median Incomes At/Near Beverly Hills, Including Several Cities much larger

31. 31 Willing To Work For Less Not To Commute?

32. 32 Office Lease Costs, 2002

33. 33 Office Market, 2003 2 nd Lowest U.S. Suburban Vacancy Rate

34. 34 I-15 Freeway Inland Empire: Center of the Universe? State Needs To Create A Competitive Job Environment

35. 35 Contact: www.johnhusing.com

36. 36 Economic Vitality Conversation Today’s Focus 1.What state actions will have the most immediate positive impact on California’s economic recovery? 2.What state actions will result in the most significant long-term improvement to California’s economic competitiveness and comparative advantage? 3.How do we best structure an effective partnership between the regions and the state around economic strategy?