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Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Aug 22-24, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Aug 22-24, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Aug 22-24, 2007

2 W. Texas Crude Oil Price

3 Index of Prices Paid

4 Southeast3,353 2,360 -29.6 Mid-South 4,235 2,730 -35.5 Southwest6,835 5,255 -23.1 West525 415 -21.0 ALL UPLAND 14,948 10,760 -28.0 ALL ELS326 298 -8.6 ALL COTTON15,274 11,058 -27.6 2007 U.S. Cotton Acreage 20062007% Actual Intentions* Change Thousand Acres *USDA-NASS

5 Crop Futures Prices ’06’07Ratio Jan-Mar Avg Cotton (Dec)$0.593$0.588 Corn (Dec)$2.45$4.066.91 Soybeans (Nov)$6.15$7.8713.39 Wheat (Jul)$3.92$5.008.51

6 Ratio of Futures Prices

7 U.S. Cotton Production

8

9 U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption 2007 2006

10 Consumption Expenditures

11 U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption

12 U.S. Cotton Mill Use

13 India Cotton Supply & Use

14 Brazil Cotton Supply & Use

15 Cotton Production & Use (Foreign less China)

16 China Cotton Supply & Use

17 U.S. Cotton Exports

18 World Cotton Production & Use

19 Cotton Stocks-to-Use

20 Nearby NY and “A” (FE) Index

21 Looking Forward  Bullish Factors  Production below use  Stocks tighten  Continued competition for available acres

22 December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

23 December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

24 November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

25 Ratio of Futures Prices

26 Looking Forward  Bullish Factors  Production below use  Stocks tighten  Continued competition for available acres  Bearish Factors  Expanding production in other countries (India)  Maintaining demand at higher price levels

27 Price Indices

28 Looking Forward  Bullish Factors  Production below use  Stocks tighten  Continued competition for available acres  Bearish Factors  Expanding production in other countries (India)  Maintaining demand at higher price levels  Wild cards  Relying on China to buy 40-50% of US crop  General economic performance

29 MerchantsGinnersCottonseed Producers Cooperatives WarehousesManufacturers


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