1. Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it Sumit Sharma TERI, New Delhi

2. 2 Background  India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively  53 cities million plus cities. expected to grow to 85 by 2025  31% urbanisation, expected to grow to 38% by 2025.  Unprecedented growth of personal vehicles in India.  Aspirations to own personal vehicles reinforced by limited public transport  Growth of vehicles far more in cities, leading to congestion and emissions and effects over health.

3. Auto Fuel Policy : 2002 BS-I to BS-IV Auto Fuel Vision 2025

4. Why at all we worry about air pollution ?

5. 2010 Air quality in India Source: CPCB, NAMP data More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM 2011

6. Satellite view (AOD)

7. Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10 Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles Shift industries NOx & vehicles

8. OK, air pollution is high ! So what ?

9. Impacts Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. GBD estimates, about 6 lakh mortalities attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country. WHO, 2012 Diesel exhausts are carcinogens Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc It warms too.. Impacts image …

10. OK it impacts, but why transport sector ?

11. 11 Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc Over 1/3 rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11), http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf

12. Vehicular growth About 28000 two wheelers, and 4200 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily (2011) As per Census 2011, 21% households have two wheelers whereas 4.7 % have cars/jeeps/vans More growth expected Data WDI, 2011

13. 13 Source apportionment study (PM) Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions) In non- industrial cities, it is the largest source Source: CPCB, 2010

14. Source apportionment study- NOx 14

15. Transport – Its not just PM !! Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary PM formation and acids NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level Ozone (impacts health + agriculture) BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming potential. 15

16. Auto Fuel Policy has been made !! Reductions have been made in vehicular emissions !!

17. Auto Fuel Policy 2002 REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION One set of standards for air quality Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided. Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines No road map after 2010

18. Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010) on emissions -19% PM reductions have been more than NOx TERI’s estimation

19. Impact of AFP on air quality (RSPM) *13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms ** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years. Data source : CPCB, NAMP

20. Learnings from Auto Fuel Policy, 2002 Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the country Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided by AFP 2002. Further advancement required Focus more on PM control and less reductions achieved in NOx, and hence, further advancements required Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.

21. It’s the old vehicles which contribute Why invest in newer fuels and vehicles ?

22. Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to about 350 million Share of older vehicles is going to diminish However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new vehicles

23. Benefits of cleaner fuel Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur content which will help to improve air quality. It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty and heavy duty diesel vehicles. Reach of CNG would still be limited. Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would reap considerable air quality benefits.

24. Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms ScenarioDescription BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities ALT-IIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-IIIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-IIIIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020 ALT-IVIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

25. This is going to cost really high ?

26. Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery investments needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores) An incremental increase of few % of the present fuel price per litre will do In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon. Few extra months of on-going diesel price increase will do.

27. OK lets do some hotspot? cities !

28. Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle sales dispersed away from large urban centers. Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM— still on BS-III ? Treating citizens differently

29. Why not other sectors ?

30. Its not the question of either/or Transport (dominant in cities) Cook-stoves Industries

31. Why urgency ? Lets do it by 2025 !

32. 32 May cost more in future Health benefits would reduce

33. 33 Benefits could be larger.. Health impacts of only PM NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants Climate benefits are additional Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too

34. Why India should do it ?

35. Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented low-sulfur fuels years ago Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in the near future

36. 36 Conclusions Air quality in Indian cities is severely deteriorated Transport sector is one of the important source contributing to finer fractions of PM, and NOx Effects on health, agriculture, acid rain, and global warming. After AFP,2002, no road map for future. BS-IV cities show lesser increase or decrease in PM concentrations and hence BS-IV quality fuels (50 ppm sulphur) should be provided all cross the country by 2015. ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India

37. 37 Conclusions BS-norms needs to be advanced to BS-V and BS-VI levels (by 2019) to improve air quality and reduce health impacts Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (10 ppm) is critical to achieve BS-VI levels through installation of DPFs Commissioning of an effective I&M system across country Inuse vehicle testing program Strengthed I&M program Relook at driving cycles to prescribe emission norms Development of a fleet modernization programme Measures for reducing energy demand from the sector

38. 38 Thanks