1. Timothy M. Smeeding, Director, IRP July 7 th, 2011 Affordability and Access, Current Challenges: Differences in Higher Education Investment, Costs, Outcomes

2. Making Just a Few Points 1.Who goes or does not and who graduates is dependent on lots of forces, especially SES and not just on costs alone. 2.College education is still the best investment one can make—but how to get low SES kids and their families to overcome all the roadblocks to postsecondary school completion is the main policy issue we must face.

3. The Basic Facts: Going and Graduating Socioeconomic Status of Entering Classes by College Selectivity SES Quartiles (compared to 25 percent of all youths in each quartile) Tier; ( # schools ; % all students )BottomTopTotal Tier 1 ( 146 ; 10 % )374100 Tier 2 ( 253 ; 18 % )746100 Tier 31035100 Tier 41635100 Community Colleges2122100 Source: Carnevale and Rose (2004); data: National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS: 88) as in Haveman- Smeeding (2006, Future of Children)

4. Graduating School Selectivity Bottom SES Quartile Second SES Quartile Third SES Quartile Top SES Quartile Tier 1 (highest) 76858090 Tier 2 61637179 Tier 3 60585966 Tier 4 (lowest) 40635558 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Jeff Strohl. Analysis of survey data from High School and Beyond (HS&B), U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/hsb/. Graduation Rates, by Selectivity and Socioeconomic Quartile (percentage of initial attendees)

5. What Else? Only 7 percent of children born into the lowest SES quartile (as measured by parental income, education, and occupational status) get baccalaureate degrees In 1966 -1970, only 7 percent of high school youth from the bottom quartile of SES graduated college (within 6 years of high school) vs. 50 percent of top quartile children. Of those who enroll in a four-year college, one study shows that 26 percent of bottom quartile kids graduate (within 6 years) vs. 59 percent top quartile kids. In another study of only elite schools, the same comparison shows 44 vs. 78 percent enrollees who graduate.

6. Most lower SES kids, and especially minority kids, first enroll in two-year community colleges where only about a third go on to four-year colleges and universities. Only 44 percent of low-income high school seniors with high standardized test scores enroll in a four-year college. More than 30 percent of whites and nearly 50 percent of Asians have earned baccalaureate degrees, compared with only 18 percent of African Americans and 12 percent of Hispanics.

7. Seven Practical and Policy Steps for Increasing Investments in College Graduation Rates Or Seven Ways to Mess Up Along the way?

8. 1. Be Prepared in High School & Take the Right Courses (enrollment and remediation policy; advisors tie career goals to coursework) 2. Take the SAT and/or ACT: high school advisor and counseling policy 3. Apply: counseling and information policy on true cost of college for low SES kids vs. “sticker price”; FAFSA form completion help ; return on investment 4. Be Accepted and Can Afford to Go :price is set and aid is given; need based aid is offered; remaining cost to student and family is affordable—the Canadian example

9. 5. Enroll and Matriculate: who is targeted by financial aid, student or university? college capacity issues 6. Persist: Do not drop out of school (‘enrollment management’ policy for colleges; incentives for schools to produce better graduates in shorter times) 7. Graduate: within 5-6 Years without mountain of debt (loans vs. grants policy compared to family income transfers) and with a valuable degree (promise vs. reality of for-profit colleges).

10. Over to Bob on the Payoff Angel