1. www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Canon Dr George Lings Director - Church Army’s Research Unit Church Growth: fresh expressions of Church 1

2. 2 An analysis of fresh expressions of Church and church plants begun in the period 1992-2012 Church Army’s Research Unit Work sponsored by The Church Army as part of a St John Durham consortium & The Church Commissioners Strand 3b of the Church Growth Research Project Elspeth McGann Claire Dalpra George Lings Jon Vivian

3. www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Church Growth: ‘I rather doubt it’ ‘Fresh expressions of Church save the world ‘ We were part of a welcome shift – to decisions based on evidence rather than relying on anecdote or assumption 3

4. 4 A representative selection of dioceses : North/south/east/west Urban – mixed – rural Pro fxC – unconvinced All their fxC, begun in the period 1992-2012 Result: 98.5% response rate from all the leads given We interviewed the leaders by phone, using a pre-set questionnaire In the leader’s view …

5. www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Findings missional & ecclesial ‘Fresh expression’ = contextualised & missional ‘of Church’ = the identity is ecclesial Missional with Ecclesial = fresh expression of Church Omit either … its not an fxC [it’s OK to be something else] Our ten criteria tested for the presence of both Only 46% of all cases qualified H 2 O Hydrogen with Oxygen = Water Leave either out and you don’t get water 5

6. Missional measures of fresh expressions of Church in 10 dioceses 6 It turned out to be against a hitherto unknown backdrop of decline in the dioceses selected www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction

7. 7 How many fxC and how many attend? Dioc AWA 2011 fxC attd – all age fxC/dioc % 28600293310.3 19900317716.0 15900181111.4 1800014658.1 4150018304.4 21500286413.3 1610010836.7 2720027029.9 17200172710.0 1370012719.3 Diocese nos of fxC Diocese no. Ch's fxC/dioc Ch’s % Liverpool7825830.2 Canterbury7232822.0 Leicester5231316.6 Derby4633013.9 Chelmsford505988.4 Norwich636389.9 Ripon & Leeds3925615.2 Blackburn6427823.0 Bristol3320516.1 Portsmouth2117312.1 In 7 / 10 cases the growth from the fxC reverses the decline in these dioceses in the 6 years [06-11] of their reported figures 20863 518 15.3% 9.5%

8. 8 When did the fxC start? – by Diocese Most cases are post Mission-shaped Church The annual rate of starts is now x 4 compared with 2004

9. In the leaders’ opinion … The de-churched and non-churched greatly exceed the already Christians The non-churched are growing - a pressing major mission field It would now be prudent to survey the attenders – so we are doing it 9

10. Adults and teens/children at fxC Diocese Attendance [all ages]Adult<16% Adult% <16 Liverpool29331693124057.7%42.3% Canterbury31771958121961.6%38.4% Leicester1811122958267.9%32.1% Derby146585860758.6%41.4% Chelmsford1830114368762.5%37.5% Norwich28641703116159.5%40.5% Ripon & Leeds108364843559.8%40.2% Blackburn27021474122854.6%45.4% Bristol1727106965861.9%38.1% Portsmouth127162564649.2%50.8% Totals2086312400846359.4%40.6% 10 Context:<16s in 2011 Census19% CE uSa <16s15% CE AWA <16s20%

11. 11 A significant investment Total sent 5820 There is nothing else, as a whole, with this effect in the whole of the Church of England Ratio average 3.6 for every 1 sent, you get 2.6 more Diocese name Team sent Attendance now Ratio: of sent to attendance now Liverpool59529334.9 Canterbury104431773.0 Leicester64318112.8 Derby37314653.9 Chelmsford61618303.0 Norwich71928644.0 Ripon & Leeds30910833.5 Blackburn70227023.8 Bristol50217273.4 Portsmouth31712714.0

12. Ecclesial evaluations of fresh expressions of Church in 10 dioceses 12 www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction

13. 13 fxC: mostly small things – not a few big ones % team size sent of 3-12 73.1% 73.6% 69.2% 82.6% 72.0% 77.8% 74.4% 71.9% 72.7% 57.1% Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & L Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth Mean of attendance across the fxc 38.1 49.6 37.7 36.6 40.7 47.7 30.1 48.3 54.0 66.9 Average dioc’ congreg’n size 110.9 60.7 50.8 54.5 69.4 33.7 62.9 97.8 83.9 79.2 Avg. 43.7 Avg. 73.4%

14. Small but also young churches 44% of them were born after 2010 At most these ones are three years old 14 www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction

15. 15 The variety of fxC Alternative Worship Base Ecclesial Community Café Church Cell Plant - scratch or parallel Children Focussed Church Cluster based Church Community Development Plant Intentional Community Messy Church Mid Week Service Multiple Congregation Network Church New Monastic Community Older Peoples Church School based Church Seeker Church Special Interest Group Traditional Church Plant Under Fives Church Youth Church All the kinds listed proved to be needed Who do they focus on? Data across 10 Dioceses Child focussed 7% Adults only19% Serving all ages74% Different natural unit sizes Different leadership resources

16. 16 Some steps in discipleship Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & Leeds Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth % taking some steps 79 81 85 54 80 71 87 81 82 71 Question posed: Tick which of these you do small groups meeting 1-1 running courses serving in teams

17. 17 Steps toward responsibility / maturity 38%Total: Steps toward self Reproducing [SER] 64%Total: Steps toward self Governing [SEG] 48%Total: Steps toward self Financing [SEF] 26%Total: Not At This Stage [NAST] 48% So 74% have started on this journey This vulnerability was reported back

18. 18 Steps towards sacramental life Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & L Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth Holds HC % 47.4 48.6 40.4 21.7 36.0 33.3 43.6 35.9 33.3 28.6 Baptism % 19.2 36.1 26.9 26.1 34.0 47.6 33.3 42.2 42.4 47.6 Table 22 Practice varies with … Type of fxC Clientele Frequency of m eeting

19. 19 Norwich Liverpool FxC share the C of E instinct to serve all kinds of area 2 dioceses: one rural one urban

20. 20 Who can lead an fxC? Ordained led fxC % 50.0 43.3 30.8 48.4 47.7 54.3 59.3 50.0 45.2 ‘Lay-Lay’ led fxC % 39.0 43.3 52.3 39.1 41.5 34.6 35.2 35.4 35.0 51.6 Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & Leeds Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth All lay % 50.0 56.7 69.2 51.6 52.3 45.7 40.7 50.0 54.8 Averages48% 52% 40.0% What is learnt from this?

21. The Church Army team dug deeper into the lay-lay contribution The Lay-lay are different in respect of: – Gender, – employment [hence cost] – and time given They do pretty much as well in terms of: – Mission effectiveness – Seeking ecclesial maturity 21 www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction

22. 22 Traditions and fxC Many cases cited > 1 tradition NB The tables show what percentage of cases owned one of the named traditions, at least in part DioceseEvangelicalCharismaticCentralAnglo Catholic Liverpool7323249 Canterbury6444426 Leicester7744314 Derby6141484 Chelmsford8034288 Norwich51245914 Ripon & Leeds44414623 Blackburn53115014 Bristol61215512 Portsmouth4838575 Averages61.2%32.1%44%9.9%

23. fresh expressions of Church and inherited Church; Is this comparing apple seeds with apple trees? Their name claims … Their data shows … Their aspirations reveal … They are Church already – not seeds It’s more like comparing growing children/ teens with adults Maturity can occur in any of them and be absent too Identity is deeper than competence or practice Helpful in some ways but … 23

24. Growth patterns across fxC in 10 dioceses An open question: how many of the 1 st 3 categories count as success? A research question – what factors contribute to the variety? 24

25. 25 The mortality rate in fxC Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & L Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth No. died 4 10 4 7 5 4 3 10 1 2 9.7% 50 /518 fxC 36% of the ‘died’ took no steps towards discipleship. The average of ‘no steps’ for the 10 dioc’s = 22% 36% of the ‘died’ took no steps towards a ‘three self’ ID. That average in 10 dioc’s = 26% 54% of the ‘died’ had celebrated communion but of those still alive, 38% had done so Examples meeting fortnightly are the most likely [16%] to die

26. Loose Ends 26 Making the lessons available: Chapter 7 has 2 pages on distilled lessons and traps to avoid The pdf full report is available on the websites of Church of England Fresh Expressions Anglican Church Planting Initiatives Printed 137 pp versions are on sale today at £10 The 26 pp more popular pdf version and a short DVD, for parishes, can be found at www.churcharmy.org.uk/fxCresearch

27. Further action since Most of the 1 st 10 dioceses have asked for a report to their senior staff and some to diocesan synod With the Church Commissioners support, Church Army have started on the next 10 dioceses Some dioceses have taken the initiative to request being included Now the work is large enough to compare different types of fxC, not least church plants with the rest We report in 2016 on the 20 dioceses, on survey work with attenders and a pilot on sustainability 27

28. In conclusion … About one quarter of the English dioceses have been surveyed for their fxC, at a 98.5% response rate How are we to think of these fxC? 28 We know our children are ours But they are not us It’s the same with fresh expressions of Church

29. Responses, questions etc ? 29 ? ? ? ? www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction

30. 30 Is it an fxC? The 10 parameters used 1.Is corporately Christian; a new and further group, not an existing one that has been improved 2.Planters have tried to engage with non-church people in their context 3.Meets at least once a month 4.Has a name, that gives an identity 5.An intention to be church 6.Is it Anglican? – Bishop sees it as part of the family 7.Some form of recognised leadership 8.The majority of members see it as their church 9.Aspiration for the 4 ecclesial / creedal relationships 10.Intention to become 3 self – in context

31. An Inclusion / Exclusion example Bristol 9 1 1 20 2 1 6 A- Arch on from fxC or towards an fxC D- Died I- Infrequent [< monthly] N- Not an fxC 2- Duplicate record NY- Not Yet: planned not started X- eXcluded: outside of 1992 – 2012 period [N]ot an fxC comprised: 1 Rebadged existing service 6 Rebadged small group or social events 7 Outreach projects [to bring people back to existing churches] 4 New events for Christians 1 Chaplaincy 1 Never C of E Included were 33 examples Reasons to exclude 54% 31

32. 32 Work Status of the Leader by Gender Chelmsford as an example Across 10 dioceses the most common combinations are: Male, ordained, stipendiary, full time, leaders Female, lay, voluntary, spare time, leaders

33. Growth Ratios and fxC types 31. How many more added for each one sent ? + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 33

34. Mortality rates across types of fxC 34 NB On average 91% continue to live